In short: Flament: after Bitcoin, "the birth of Ethereum" was the big shift, because "with Ethereum you could actually code smart stuff on a blockchain," which makes "smart money" you can program. She names it one of the few chains likely to win: "a few are going to win… Ethereum and Solana… where… more and more of the traditional financial system [is] moving."
Ethereum is a blockchain: a shared, public ledger run by many computers rather than one company. Bitcoin showed you could send value directly between people over the internet without a bank in the middle. Ethereum added "smart contracts," small programs that live on the ledger and move money automatically when set conditions are met.
Flament thinks that is the real breakthrough. Today's bank payments split the instruction (a SWIFT message) from the movement of money. On Ethereum they are a single step, so money can be programmed. An example from Colin: a fund's payout to its investors happens automatically, by contract, the moment the sale proceeds arrive.
Her Positive view is about adoption, not price. Of roughly 150 competing blockchains, she expects "a few are going to win," and Ethereum is one of the two where she sees traditional finance actually moving. No price or allocation view is given.
9:09But I think within that the most transformational thing is actually enabling the ability to send truly peer-to-peer over the internet without having to have a central party to be able to send value. That's transformation number one. And then after that what actually has been also a huge shift in the industry in terms of innovation was the birth of Ethereum.
In short: "For Ethereum, it probably goes from 1885 to probably about 1,500. It might not make a new low, but I sense that Bitcoin probably will." Same crypto-winter framework — a final flush over the next 1–2 months before a multi-year rally.
Ethereum gets the same crypto-winter treatment with slightly less downside: from about 1,885 he expects roughly 1,500, and unlike Bitcoin "it might not make a new low."
The drivers are identical — negative monthly momentum, tightening liquidity as long rates rise, weak positioning and no regulatory catalyst before the midterms — and so is the conclusion: a final flush over the next one or two months that long-term investors should be buying into, ahead of a rally he expects to run into 2028.
31:45So, we sort of — Sorry, go ahead. — Can you quantify a steep sell-off? — Yeah, I think Bitcoin at currently at 63,000, would pull back to challenge the prior lows, which is near 57, I guess, and probably undercut that and get down to probably 52. Probably a maximum of 40,000 is what I'm thinking, and for Ethereum, it probably goes from 1885 to probably about 1,500.
In short: "Even worse" than Bitcoin in the deleveraging wipeout.
3:46And we've had these periodically over the last few years, you know, liberation day and then earlier this year with the uh you know, the war in Iran. So, you you get these periods where people kind of panic and they just sell everything. And so I think that's why you're seeing, you know, the kind of this unified decline.
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