| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RLT | 268 | $5.10 | $1,367 | 0.08% | $5.55 | $-121 | -8.1% | — |
In short: New real-estate special situation, a potential 3x (small allocation): a Southern-California master-plan land developer (Great Park/Irvine, Valencia, SF Shipyard) the market misprices as a homebuilder. Its best asset sits in an unconsolidated JV, so reported quarters look sleepy while it extracts lumpy lump-sum distributions. EV ~$750M (both share classes) vs ~$2.2–2.5B real-estate NAV; trades ~0.4× book (~$5 vs ~$15–17.5 marked NAV). Flagged originally by Black Bear Value Partners.
Five Point owns enormous tracts of prime Southern California land — most valuably "Great Park" in Irvine (wealthy Orange County), plus big master-planned communities in Valencia and on the San Francisco waterfront. The market prices it like an ordinary homebuilder, but it's really a land bank: it develops or sells parcels (often through joint ventures with builders like Lennar and Toll Brothers) and collects large, irregular cash payouts.
Because its best asset is held in a joint venture, the normal financials look sleepy — quiet quarters with tiny revenue, even small losses — which scares off investors who judge it on earnings. The right way to value it is by what the land is worth: the whole company (counting both classes of stock) is priced around $750 million, but its real estate is worth roughly $2.2–2.5 billion. It trades near $5 against a marked land value of $15–17.50 a share — so if management develops or sells the land over the next few years, it could roughly triple. It's small and thinly traded, so he's keeping it a small, higher-risk position.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Bought last September. California land developer with four big assets; three didn't generate cash so "what the hell are they worth?" Now flipping from burning cash to generating it — ~$200M this year on an ~$800-900M market cap, no net debt → over a 20% free-cash-flow yield, with the other assets to fall in line.
Five Point owns large tracts of valuable California land across four big projects. The catch: three of the four were not yet generating any cash, so the market had no idea what they were worth and treated the stock as a "zombie."
That just changed — the company flipped from burning cash to producing it, with no net debt, and should make about $200 million this year against an ~$800-900 million market value. That's a free-cash-flow yield above 20% (a very cheap price for the cash it throws off), and the remaining assets should start contributing too. A classic value trap right at the moment the cash flows begin to "manifest."
55:52— Yeah. So when you do get to single-digit P multiples generally the market does realize that and react to that. So when Builders FirstSource started to generate a lot of money the stock appreciated dramatically. Now I would say the opportunity is in the value traps unchained.
Nothing matches this filter.
Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.