In short: Insulation and complementary products (gutters, fireplaces, shelving) installed in new US homes, sold to homebuilders. A serial acquirer in a fragmented, local, branch-based market; EPS up over 1,000% since 2016; a structural US housing shortage; and regulation as a tailwind — "new energy efficiency rules mean more insulation required by law. IBP doesn't need to sell harder… Washington is doing it for them." The widest gap on the list: 27.6x forward today "while you could buy it for just 9x earnings in 2022", target 15x = $168 against $305.8. Revenue is conceded to be "closely tied to housing starts."
Installed Building Products does exactly what its name says: it installs insulation, and while its crews are on site it also fits gutters, fireplaces and shelving. Its customers are American homebuilders, so its revenue rises and falls with how many houses get started.
Two things make it more than a contractor. It buys up small local installers in a very fragmented market, which is the same roll-up logic used elsewhere in this portfolio. And the government keeps tightening energy-efficiency rules, so more insulation is required by law — regulation doing the selling for it. Profits per share are up more than tenfold since 2016.
The problem is the price and the cycle together. The shares cost 27.6 times next year's profits; in 2022 the same company could be bought at nine times. For a business tied to housing starts, that range is the cycle. The stated buying level is 15 times, roughly midway between the extremes — about $168 against a market price of $306, the largest gap on either shopping list.
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