| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSA | 6 | $74.24 | $445 | 0.41% | $76.50 | $-14 | -3.0% | — |
| ROTH | 26 | $74.85 | $1,946 | 0.76% | $76.55 | $-44 | -2.2% | — |
| Total | 32 | $2,392 | 0.05% | $-58 | -2.4% | — |
In short: The week's pick — "We rate KRE a Buy / Accumulate, sized for volatility." An equal-weighted basket of ~150 U.S. regional and community lenders, "the most hated (neglected?) corner of the U.S. market that isn't actually broken anymore," still carrying "the psychological scar tissue of March 2023." Cheap absolutely and relatively: ~12× forward earnings vs "roughly half the S&P 500's multiple" and below "the ~14-16× it carried in prior up-cycles," ~1.4–1.5× tangible book (vs a sub-1× 2023 trough and ~1.7–2.0× in rosier times) and a ~2.2–2.4% dividend — "you are paid to wait." The engine: "the NIM inflection is confirmed, not just a pipedream" — Q1 2026 showed deposit costs rolling over with loan yields holding — and it is curve-driven, not cut-dependent ("banks make money borrowing short and lending long"), which "makes the thesis more robust than the simplistic 'rate cuts save the banks' version." ROTCE climbing from the low-teens toward the mid-teens is "the engine that closes that gap," and because it's "earnings-driven, not sentiment-driven," the re-rating should be "durable rather than a momentum blip." Two catalysts, "asymmetric to the upside": an M&A/consolidation wave across ~150 sub-scale banks unlocked by clearer approval pathways (an equal-weight ETF "captures the takeout premiums broadly"), and Basel III capital relief freeing capital for buybacks and lending — "both firing would do it violently." Technicals are "confirmational": multiple upside breakouts. Risks stated plainly: the deep-value entry "is most likely behind us" (~$76, up ~25–28%, just under the $78.10 52-week high, re-rating already underway on inflows and KBW's "banner year" call), a fresh inflation shock reviving 2023-style duration/deposit stress, and the $875B 2026 CRE maturity wall that equal-weighting concentrates ("this is the thesis-breaker to watch"). "Accumulate on weakness, size for the beta, and treat the CRE data as a critical factor."
KRE is a single fund that owns roughly 150 mid-sized and small American banks — the kind that lend to businesses and property owners in one region rather than trading bonds in New York. It owns them in equal amounts, so the smallest bank in the basket counts as much as the biggest. In March 2023 three of these banks (Silicon Valley, Signature, First Republic) died in a matter of days, and investors have priced the whole group as damaged goods ever since. Hay's point is that the damage was fixable and has been fixed: those banks had parked deposits in long-dated bonds that lost value when rates rose, and when nervous depositors pulled money out they had to sell at a loss. Banks have since restructured those portfolios. The share prices never got the memo.
The reason to buy now is that banks have just started earning more again. A bank's profit comes from the gap between what it charges borrowers and what it pays savers — the "net interest margin." That gap was squeezed flat when banks had to pay up for deposits; the first-quarter 2026 results showed deposit costs finally falling while loan rates held, so the gap is widening again. Importantly, this is not a bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Long-term rates have risen faster than short-term ones (a "steeper yield curve"), and since banks borrow short-term and lend long-term, that alone does the work. Japan is the live example: its curve is the steepest in the developed world and its banks have been extraordinary performers since 2022.
Two things could make it re-rate quickly. First, small banks merging — with 150 sub-scale lenders and regulators now approving deals faster, takeovers usually happen at a premium, and because the fund holds every bank in equal size it collects those premiums broadly. Second, a looser version of the Basel III capital rules, which would let banks hold less spare capital and spend it on buybacks and lending instead. Neither is priced in.
What Hay refuses to hide: the bargain window has partly closed. KRE is around $76, up about a quarter in a year and just under its 52-week high, so this is "a cheap sector getting less cheap," not a bottom. And the real danger is commercial property — about $875 billion of those loans come due in 2026 against a weak office market, and one large holding has already flagged potential losses of roughly 20% on its office book. The equal-weight structure, which protects you from any one bank blowing up, actually loads you up on the smaller banks that hold the most property loans. His verdict is still buy, but with instructions attached: buy in on weakness, keep the position small enough to survive the swings, and watch the commercial-property loss data as the thing that would kill the trade.
In short: "I think the breakout by the regional bank index is very bullish. It looks great" — he is "seeing so many of these regional bank stocks that either have broken out or very close to it and they're very reasonably priced 10 11 12 times earnings." One of the "positive slides" he deliberately led with. Entry discipline: it's extended above the breakout and the 200-day, so "I like to look at breakouts and then buy them when they pull back."
KRE is a fund holding America's small and mid-sized banks — the ones left for dead after the 2023 regional-bank scare. Hay deliberately opened his stock-market section with this chart because he wanted to make clear he is "just as bullish on certain areas of the market as I am bearish on others."
What he sees: the regional bank index has completed a breakout above a ceiling that held for years, which he reads as "very bullish," and the individual names are still cheap at 10, 11, 12 times earnings — less than half the multiple of the big index. Financials were also one of the groups that quietly went up during the 2000–02 tech crash, which is the historical rhyme he's playing.
One discipline: it has run too far above its breakout point and its 200-day average (a common trend gauge) for him to chase. His rule is to spot the breakout and then wait — "buy them when they pull back after they break out."
50:09point I'm making is that and that's why I want to start out with positive a couple positive slides here on the stock market. This I think the breakout by the regional bank index is very bullish. It looks great and actually I think Rick Rule has a few smaller bank stocks that sound like just spectacular bargains and I'd like to know those names actually and maybe you're able to share those at some point.
In short: An "encouraging indicator": the regional-bank index has completed a multi-year breakout and is "not far from breaking above five-year resistance." A penetration above 80 would mark a new all-time high, "an even more positive development." Its firmness (vs its early-2008/early-2022 rollovers) is cited as evidence of rotation over correction.
KRE is a basket of regional (small and mid-sized) U.S. banks. Bank stocks are a live read on the health of credit and the economy, so when they are strong it usually means the market's plumbing is fine. Hay's point is chart-based: KRE has broken out of a multi-year trading range and is now pressing against a ceiling it has failed to clear for five years (around 80). If it pushes through that level it makes a brand-new all-time high — a bullish sign. The key contrast is that in early 2008 and early 2022, banks and market breadth were quietly weakening while the headline index was still near its highs (the warning before a fall); today they are doing the opposite, breaking out, which is why he reads this as money rotating into new leadership rather than a market about to correct.
In short: Brown: regional-bank index ETF making a new high — "your number one read-through to the real economy"; the whole sector breaking out signals things are going well.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.