In short: "The most mispriced opportunity right now is not just lithium, but direct lithium extraction." Demand compounds at 20%+ CAGR through 2035 (doubling in ~3.5–4 years; batteries 1.8→~5 TWh); sodium-ion maybe 10% of batteries, not a disruptor. After a "lithium winter" with no bid 18 months ago, a 2027–29 story with five- and 10-baggers in the best names.
Most lithium today comes from hard-rock mines or from huge evaporation ponds in South America that take months and lots of water. "Direct lithium extraction" (DLE) pulls lithium straight out of brine with a chemical process — like a filter — using far less water and land and producing battery-ready material on site.
Kovacevic says demand is growing more than 20% a year as battery production nearly triples, and prices crashed so hard 18 months ago that nobody wanted the sector. If the big companies prove DLE works at scale, he expects the lithium market to be strong in 2027–29.
5:42Where are we at right now? — Well, lithium is growing at a CAGR growth rate better than 20%. So that's probably going to slow down, but we're still going to see 20% CAGR growth rate probably through 2035 and maybe even beyond. So the rule of 72 will tell you that the overall demand of lithium will double in the next 3 and 1/2, 4 years.
In short: +5% to just under $15,000/ton — stabilizing after inventory overhangs cleared and marginal producers exited; stationary storage now the swing demand (cell output +30-40% in 2026). Sees upside but no near-term return to historic highs.
Lithium powers the batteries in EVs and, increasingly, the big batteries that store electricity for the grid. Prices crashed and have now bottomed out (up only 5% last year) as oversupply cleared and weak producers quit. The new growth story is grid storage, not just cars — battery-cell output is set to rise 30-40% this year. Prins sees lithium recovering, but warns it won't shoot back to its old record highs anytime soon. (US supply is still tiny and delayed to 2027; China refines 60-70% of it.)
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