| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 269 | $4.46 | $1,200 | 0.05% | $3.90 | $152 | +14.5% | — |
In short: The other half of the coal alert and the sturdier chart — "New Hope has been holding up much better." The mechanism: Hormuz threatens LNG as well as oil, so "Asia is going to have no choice," while Indonesia — "the largest exporter of thermal coal… in the world" — is "drastically reducing their coal exports" to keep the coal at home.
New Hope is the other half of the coal pair (US investors buy it as NHPEF). It is the sturdier of the two — "New Hope has been holding up much better" — so it carries less of the deep-discount bargain appeal and more of the quality.
The thesis is identical: Asian power generators need fuel, the LNG they would otherwise import is at risk from Middle East disruption, and Indonesia is cutting the thermal coal it exports. As Hay puts it, "Asia is going to have no choice." Both names had already popped 4–5% in the days after his alert, and the fuller written analysis was due the next day.
37:50This is Ferg, my buddy Trader Ferg, who I think he know down in Australia, or actually he's in New Zealand, but he's really bullish on these coal companies and he's made a great case for it. And with the shortage that's developing with LNG in Asia, given the renewed cut off of because people think about oil coming out of the straight of Hormuz, but it's also natural LNG.
In short: The stronger half of the coal pair — "it has hung in there admirably well," hitting a three-year high as recently as last month before easing about 12% (the five-year chart carries a visible three-year resistance line). Flat on the week while YACAF popped 10%, which "makes some sense because YACAF was slammed much harder in recent months." Trader Ferg "shrewdly preferred NHPEF earlier this year," and Haymaker allows that "perhaps you might lean toward NHPEF" — but "we like both of them… a lot." Trades at a clear valuation premium to YACAF; also cheaper than the five-year look-back suggests once the 2022 revenue spike is adjusted for. Same thesis: LNG-to-Asia disruption pulls thermal coal up, with Indonesia cutting exports and Europe/China/India heat compounding it. Dollar-cost-average in. A Haymaker Buy-list holding.
New Hope is the other Australian coal miner Hay wants owned — the higher-quality, better-behaved half of the pair. US investors typically buy it through the over-the-counter listing NHPEF, which is why the post calls it that. Unlike Yancoal, it has held up well: it touched a three-year high just last month and has only slipped about 12% since, and it didn't move at all in this week's coal bounce because it never got knocked down the way Yancoal did.
The reason to own it is the same one: as Middle East trouble threatens LNG shipments to Asia, electricity producers substitute coal, and coal prices get pulled up with gas. Trader Ferg — the outside energy researcher whose calls Hay follows — preferred New Hope earlier this year, and Hay concedes a cautious investor "might lean toward NHPEF." It is the more expensive of the two on price-to-sales and price-to-earnings, which is normal for this pair. But the verdict is not either/or: "we like both of them… a lot." Buy gradually, over time, and expect the payoff to come from a shortage that Europe and Asia are walking into with depleted emergency reserves.
In short: The second coal pick; after a recent bounce it's "essentially a push" (flat), so between the two the pair is off ~11.5%. Same trapped-LNG-lifts-thermal-coal thesis as Yancoal. Haymaker encourages readers "who passed on our first endorsement" to initiate a position now ("time is of the essence"); more aggressive investors might own both YACAF and NHPEF. Details Friday.
New Hope is the second Australian coal miner in the pair. It has essentially gone nowhere (flat after a bounce), so together the two coal picks are down about 11.5%. The thesis is the same as Yancoal's: with LNG stuck in the Persian Gulf, coal becomes the go-to substitute fuel, and that should lift coal prices. Hay is encouraging anyone who skipped New Hope the first time to start a position now — and the boldest investors to own both coal names — again stressing that "time is of the essence." Details in Friday's Pick of the Week.
In short: Large Australian coal miner (~14× earnings) whose chart looks "like a coiled spring" as Asia faces a coal shortage (Indonesia halting exports).
New Hope is a big Australian coal miner (US ticker NHPEF). Hay admits he's been reluctant to own coal because it's dirty, but the supply picture has changed his mind: Asia depends heavily on coal, has been cut off from gas, and Indonesia — the world's biggest coal exporter — is moving to halt exports to protect its own supply.
That points to a coal-price spike. New Hope trades at only ~14× earnings even with coal prices depressed, and he says the chart "looks like a coiled spring" — coiled tight, ready to jump if prices rise.
23:41New Hope Mining which is the large Australian coal miner. And to me this chart looks terrific like it's a coiled spring. It's only 14 times earnings despite depressed coal prices. So anyway, that's pretty much what I wanted to cover with you that, you know, energy is just not in favor. It's it's just like it's like this crisis isn't happening.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.