In short: Second gas example: "trades at 3.9 times cash flow, has a 9.9 PDP years and 28.2 for a 2P" — a multiple well below its proved-producing reserve life.
Peyto is a low-cost Alberta natural gas producer. On his screen it trades at 3.9 times cash flow while it has about 10 years of already-producing reserves and 28 years including probable reserves. In plain terms: investors are paying for less than four years of cash flow for a company whose existing wells alone should keep producing for about a decade — the gap he expects to close as the cycle matures.
24:03At the later part of the market cycle, they usually get closer to that 2P number. So that's how the cash flow multiples go up. So I'll give you another one. Peyto trades at 3.9 times cash flow, has a 9.9 PDP years and 28.2 for a 2P. And one more I'll give you which is a gas, cavy energy 3.
In short: Named in the same breath as Birchcliff and PrairieSky among the smaller Canadian producers he favours over the large caps — the part of the market that is "substantially cheaper, playing catch-up over five years in what is already a good market."
Peyto is a low-cost Canadian gas-weighted producer and appears on the same short list of smaller names. Rick doesn't give it a separate argument — it inherits the group thesis: Canadian producers trade at a discount created by headline political risk rather than by their assets, and the smaller ones trade at a discount within that discount.
His framing of the payoff is a time bet rather than a price target: hold these to 2030 and "you and I were very good guys for having talked about them now."
36:24Birchcliff, Peyto, PrairieSky Royalty. There's seven or eight names up there that if somebody is willing to hold them till 2030 will by then think that you and I were very good guys for having talked about them now.
36:48All right, that's a lot of names. Thank you. I may have recommended about half of them in various places in my newsletters. Good. Well, it will inure to your benefit over the next five years. Yeah, we actually had ARC right up until it was taken over. That was a good one.
In short: The other gas-centric Canadian name ("PO" in the auto-transcript) — paired with Birchcliff.
Peyto (the transcript's "PO") is the other gas-focused Canadian producer Rick pairs with Birchcliff — a low-cost natural-gas name that benefits as the gas glut works off.
46:23and an odd special situation called International Petroleum, a heavy oil producer controlled by the Lundines, whose major capital investments are behind them, just starting to absolutely gush cash. If Mr. Carney and Mr. Trump can agree on debottlenecking the Keystone pipeline, enabling the sales of more Canadian heavy oil to heavy oil starved US Gulf Coast refiners.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.