In short: Deiya — positive but explicitly "some hair on it." A conventional processor competing with PayPal, oriented to gaming and prediction markets, a segment "the Stripes of the world, the Adians of the world typically stay away from." The thesis is sum-of-the-parts: a very portable digital-wallet subsidiary worth 60–70% of the whole enterprise value at 9–10× earnings, so "not a lot has to go right for there to be a rerating." Against that: significantly overleveraged — the host puts it at $2.5bn of debt against $600m book — with high-single-digit organic growth (better than it screens, after asset sales) and a new-CEO turnaround paying debt down.
Paysafe is a payment processor — it handles card transactions for other companies — with an unusual specialisation in online gambling and prediction markets. Big, respectable processors like Stripe and Adyen generally won't touch that business because of the regulatory headache, which is exactly why a specialist can earn good economics in a segment that happens to be growing fast.
The value argument is a "sum of the parts" one: Paysafe also owns a digital-wallet business which, valued on its own at a normal 9–10 times earnings, would be worth 60–70% of what the entire company is currently valued at — and it's a clean, separable business that could be sold. In other words you're getting the rest of the company nearly free, so "not a lot has to go right for there to be a rerating."
Deiya is unusually explicit that this one has "hair on it." The company carries around $2.5 billion of debt against roughly $600 million of book value, which is a lot of leverage for a business growing revenue in the high single digits. Debt magnifies both outcomes: if the turnaround under the new CEO works and the wallet is monetised, the equity moves violently upward; if trading deteriorates, lenders get paid before shareholders do.
1:04:38sell that off at 9, 10 times earnings, which is, it's a very portable business as well. So they own an asset which makes up a huge portion of the value of the company. Not a lot has to go right for there to be a rerating, but there is some hair on it with the leverage. — Yeah, they do owe $2.
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