In short: A pass on spread width, not on deal risk. "There are some antitrust issues around Roku and Fox A, but that spread is just not wide enough to be involved in." The news: "media reports last week about the DOJ preparing to expand its antitrust probe into Fox's proposed $22 billion takeover of Roku. Investors were slightly surprised but not shocked, given there's only a 70/30 odds of clearing… the base case is that this is going to close." The spread "widened out to a 6.5% IRR to a Feb close" (the deck: ~$4 to ~$5 a share, using a 3/1/27 close), with "a lot of big hedge funds putting the spread on." His verdict: "That spread is not wide enough for us to make any money on because I'm not going to borrow money to put on a silly spread like that."
Fox has agreed to buy Roku, the TV-streaming platform, for about $22 billion. Once a takeover is agreed, the target's shares trade a little below the offer price; the gap is the reward for waiting and for taking the risk the deal is blocked. This week the Justice Department signalled a deeper antitrust review, and the gap widened.
Singh still declines. The gap now works out to about 6.5% a year if the deal closes next February. Plenty of big hedge funds are happy with that because they borrow money to multiply small returns. Singh does not use borrowed money, and 6.5% a year with a real chance of the deal being blocked is not enough compensation on its own: "I'm not going to borrow money to put on a silly spread like that."
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: "Roku and Fox A filed their preliminary S-4, which I plan to read on Monday." The regulatory clock: Fox withdrew its HSR filing Aug 5 to give the DOJ more time and re-filed Aug 7, so the waiting period expires midnight September 8. The background section is the part he flags as worth reading: a strategic-initiatives committee of independent directors, a confidential market check from March 2026 reaching out to 11 potential counterparties, only three progressing to real diligence, and only Fox bidding — an initial $154/share indication in May (60% cash / 40% stock) countered up to a final $160/share, a ~34% premium to the unaffected price, leaving Roku holders ~27% of the combined company. "It tends to be quite educational for people who are trying to understand how these deals come together."
Fox is buying Roku at $160 a share, a 34% premium to where the stock traded before the deal leaked. Fox pulled its antitrust filing on August 5 to give the Justice Department more time, then re-filed on August 7, which restarts the clock — the review period now ends at midnight on September 8. That is the next date that matters.
Singh flags the merger document itself as worth reading for its own sake. It shows Roku's board quietly canvassing 11 possible buyers starting in March, most declining outright, only three doing serious work, and in the end only Fox making an offer at all — starting at $154 and settling at $160 after counterproposals. It is a rare public look at how thin the bidder list usually is behind a headline premium.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: The acquisition target, re-priced. Fox's planned $22 billion acquisition of Roku "would add a major connected-TV distribution and advertising platform alongside Tubi and FOX One" — the second time this hub has carried the deal, and the price cited here is above the ~$22B EV framing of the original announcement. The Fox read frames Roku as the scaled distribution layer that turns event-driven audience spikes (the World Cup's 2.8 million FOX One June sign-ups) into durable streaming engagement — while also being "Roku's much larger cost base" that Fox must absorb. (Referenced; not a stance call.)
In short: Referenced — reported (then denied) as a Netflix M&A target. Carlson says Netflix "did not bid on Roku" — just looked under the hood, which fits its normal content-evaluation model, not desperation.
8:57But regardless, they were willing to pay a lot for Warner Bros. Discovery to get that library. That was the first red flag that maybe Netflix's core business didn't have these key pieces of content that they wanted. Then they also just recently reportedly bid on Roku and on Lionsgate, two other content creators, and they didn't get either of them, or at least they walked away from either of them.
In short: The distribution asset being bought — a scaled connected-TV platform (100M+ households, ~25% of US CTV) that monetizes the interface: platform segment $4.1B (~88% of 2025 revenue) from ads, rev-share, distribution fees and home-screen placements. Contested by Amazon, Google, Samsung, Walmart/Vizio.
Roku makes the operating system and home screen on tens of millions of TVs — it's the interface sitting between viewers, the streaming apps, and advertisers. It doesn't make most of its money from selling devices; it makes it from that platform (about $4.1 billion, ~88% of revenue) through advertising, taking a cut of subscriptions, and selling prime spots on the home screen.
That's exactly why Fox is paying ~$22 billion for it: Roku reaches 100M+ households (about a quarter of US connected-TV homes), and whoever controls the interface controls where attention — and ad money — flows. The risk flagged in the piece is that Roku's position is contested by much bigger players (Amazon, Google, Samsung, Walmart's Vizio), so it's a valuable but defendable, not unbeatable, control point.
In short: Definitive agreement to be acquired by Fox at $160/share (~$22B — "quite surprised"): ~$96 cash + 0.9693 Fox-A per Roku A/B share; shares halted June 15. Netflix confirmed it didn't counter.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Target of the Fox deal — ~100M households worldwide, valued at $22B / a 2026 PE of 57×. The object of Eisman's "good luck" jab at the price Fox is paying.
13:32It's a brutal space where competition is intense and the only impregnable franchises are Visa and Mastercard. Full disclosure, I own Visa. In other news, Fox is buying Roku, the streaming company, in a large deal that values Roku at 22 billion. Fox has little streaming presence. So, this is a way for Fox to jumpstart its business in streaming.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.