In short: Pick #2 — adding the European cut-rate airline (first liked H1 2024) back to the recommended list. Down $73 → $56 on fuel fears, "unfairly": it hedged 70% of fuel through 2027 at $67/bbl and has zero net debt. 15% net margins vs 4% industry; O'Leary's 30-year cost discipline; 300 new fuel-efficient 737 MAXs next year as Boeing turns around. Value cyclicals on P/S — at 2× sales → $70 PT (often hits 3×). "A superior money-maker over the next 12-24 months."
Ryanair is Europe's biggest no-frills, ultra-low-cost airline. Its stock fell from $73 to $56 because investors panicked about higher jet-fuel prices — but Haymaker says that's a mistake, because Ryanair already locked in 70% of its fuel needs through 2027 at a low fixed price ($67/barrel), so the spike barely touches it. It also has more cash than debt, runs at a 15% profit margin (the rest of the airline industry averages 4%), and its famously cost-obsessed CEO has run it for 30 years. On top of that, 300 brand-new fuel-efficient Boeing jets arrive next year, widening its cost advantage while weaker rivals go bust.
For a cyclical business like an airline, Haymaker values it on price-to-sales rather than earnings (profits swing too much year to year). Ryanair regularly trades at 2× sales — and sometimes 3× — so a return to 2× points to about $70, well above today's $56. They expect it to be "a superior money-maker over the next 12–24 months," with the obvious caveat that it's still an airline.
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