| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSA | 5 | $141.87 | $709 | 0.66% | $99.30 | $213 | +42.9% | — |
In short: Passing mention — Muse opens its own browser and searches "Shopify websites" when it shops.
10:30See, up until now, when you ask Muse to shop for something, he'll actually open up his own browser and he'll start searching the web. He'll search on Shopify websites. He'll search on Lowe's or Home Depot or Target or Walmart or Sam's Club or wherever. It'll just search like a normal human would, but it does it a lot more passively because you're not wasting your time doing it.
In short: Passing mention — listed in the summary with Microsoft, Meta and ASML as a company that "should benefit" from agentic commerce; no argument given.
42:29We have S&P Global and Moody's very resilient. Costco and Netflix very resilient. Texas Roadhouse, Cheesecake Factory, all of those type of companies are very resilient. And then we have some that should actually benefit. Microsoft and Meta should benefit from Agentic Commerce. Shopify should benefit. ASML should benefit as well.
In short: The article's verdict is that the all-in AI bet is working operationally: revenue ~$7B in 2023 to a projected $15B+ this year while headcount fell from ~11,600 (end-2022) to 7,600 (end-2025); AI-driven traffic and orders tripled year-over-year in Q2 (President Harley Finkelstein). Caveats stated plainly: stock down >15% YTD (−7% intraday Tuesday in a software selloff) and pricey at ~57× forward earnings. Next: agentic commerce, with Shopify's merchant catalog offered to OpenAI, Anthropic and other model developers.
Shopify sells the software small and mid-sized retailers use to run an online store — build the website, take the payment, see the numbers. Its CEO, Tobias Lütke, did something few big-company bosses have done: instead of handing staff some AI tools and hoping, he made using AI compulsory. A memo early last year said AI use was a "baseline expectation"; managers now get asked about their team's AI use in performance reviews, new projects are prototyped with AI, and — the sharpest rule — a team has to prove a job can't be done with AI before it is allowed to hire a person to do it.
The reason this article matters beyond Shopify is that it puts numbers on whether that works. Revenue has gone from about $7 billion in 2023 to a projected $15 billion-plus this year, while the number of employees fell from roughly 11,600 to 7,600. Doing twice the business with a third fewer people is the single cleanest public example of AI producing what investors call operating leverage — more output per employee — rather than just AI-flavored press releases.
The catch is the share price, and the article says so plainly: the stock is down more than 15% this year and trades around 57 times next year's expected profits, so a lot of good news is already in the price. The next bet is "agentic commerce" — the idea that shoppers will increasingly ask an AI assistant to find and recommend products rather than browsing themselves. Shopify is handing its merchants' product catalog to OpenAI, Anthropic and others so their assistants can recommend from it, and says AI-driven traffic and orders to its stores tripled versus a year ago in the second quarter. Fitch's framing: Shopify is the barometer — if all-in AI adoption pays anywhere, it should show up here first.
In short: Held through an 85% fall and added to. "Shopify was down 85% in 2022… I have my doubts as well during those periods. But I have my Quality Score and my Selling Rules to help me. As long as those are intact, I often add to my position. When it hurts the most, it's often the best time to buy." Disclosed entry in Part I: $5.58.
Shopify sells the software that lets any merchant run an online store. Its shares fell 85% in 2022. Heyndrikx held them, and added — not out of stubbornness, but because he had two mechanical checks to consult: a set of sell rules he had written down before he ever owned it, and a score he re-marks every quarter on seventeen measures of business quality. While both were intact, the fall was a price event rather than a business event.
His claim about why this is hard is not about courage. It is that after a 50% fall everything written about a company turns negative, and those stories, not the number on the screen, are what push people out. Having a score to consult is what lets him ignore them.
In short: "A name that we added to recently" — owned from 120 since March, down to 97, now 158 after blowout quarters finally got paid this print. His illustration that even the right growth names have been brutal to hold: "in May, we were eating on Shopify, and it rallied."
Shopify provides the software that online stores run on. He owned it from 120, watched it fall to 97, and it now trades at 158 — but the useful part is the sequence: two blowout quarters in a row produced no rally at all before the third one finally got paid.
He uses it as the honest illustration of this market: being right on the business tells you very little about when you get compensated. "In May, we were eating on Shopify, and it rallied."
43:30earnings the last couple quarters. It didn't even rally last quarter. Had great earnings, it didn't rally. And then this quarter, they finally rallied after good earnings. But this is choppy. We own this from March; it fell, we owned this at 120. It fell all the way to 97, and now it's at 158.
In short: Referenced — Global-E's Managed Markets 2.0 is framed as potentially "a meaningful Shopify growth lever," the platform partner behind Global-E's cross-border expansion into Canada and the UK. A partner mention inside the GLBE section, not a stance on Shopify.
In short: Heyndrikx's holding, and the origin of his entire method. Bought February 2017 at a split-adjusted $5.58; $155 today (+2,668%). The purchase was an admitted process failure: "I had just listened to Tobi Lütke, the founder and CEO on a podcast, and I thought he was brilliant. So, in an impulse, I bought some Shopify shares… I had not checked the valuation and I really thought I had acted stupidly." The examination of why he bought became Potential Multibaggers, launched 2 May 2017 with Shopify as its first pick. It is also the position he is proudest of defending: Citron Research published a short report weeks later — "there was a lot of insinuation, but no substance. So I decided to buy more" — and again on the second and third reports. "I wouldn't have expected Shopify to go more than 20x in the 9 years since I bought it." Market cap at purchase: $4.5bn.
Shopify sells the software any small business needs to run an online shop — payments, inventory, shipping, the storefront itself — for a monthly fee plus a slice of sales. It is the guest's oldest and largest winner: bought in February 2017 at the equivalent of $5.58 a share against roughly $155 now, a gain of about 2,668%.
The interesting part is that he says the purchase was a mistake. He heard the founder, Tobi Lütke, on a podcast, decided the man was exceptional, and bought without doing any valuation work at all — behaviour he calls amateurish. What rescued it was the reflection afterwards: if a stranger could be that impressed by a founder from a podcast, then customers, staff and investors would be too, and that pull is a real business asset that appears nowhere in the accounts. That thought became the basis of his whole newsletter.
The second lesson is about holding. Weeks after he published it as his first recommendation, a well-known short-selling firm published three attacks on the company. He read each one, checked the specific claims rather than reacting to the tone, concluded there was "insinuation but no substance", and bought more each time. Nine years later the position has multiplied more than twenty-fold.
In short: A held name that beat across the board: Q2 revenue $3.58B vs $3.45B expected, +34% y/y, GMV $115.6B vs $112.1B, operating income +68% to $488M, MRR $221M. "Very impressive from Shopify." He notes he owns it and that TD Cowen and Jefferies are very bullish though "the price targets aren't that aggressive." Detail on deck page 45.
Shopify provides the software small and medium merchants use to run online stores. It beat on everything that matters: revenue $3.58 billion versus $3.45 billion expected and up 34% year on year; the total value of goods sold through its platform ahead of forecasts; and operating profit up 68%.
The number Singh watches most is monthly recurring revenue — the predictable subscription fees, as opposed to the variable cut of sales — which came in at $221 million. Growing that is what turns a transaction business into a compounding one. He owns it, and notes the sell side is very bullish though price targets are conservative.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Deceleration dodged. Q2 revenue +34% Y/Y to $3.6B (a $140M beat) with GMV +32% to $115.6B and free cash flow of $654M at an 18% margin, up from 15% last quarter; shares surged "as the recent deceleration scare proved premature." Growth was broad across merchant sizes, geographies and channels. Shopify Payments penetration reached 68% of GMV (+3pp Y/Y) and Shop Pay has now processed more than $400B of GMV since launch. The AI-commerce read is the most concrete yet: AI-driven traffic and orders to Shopify stores both tripled Y/Y, and AI-attributed orders convert at roughly twice the rate when agents use Shopify's structured Catalog rather than scraped web data — a direct argument that machine-readable product data, not the storefront, is becoming the conversion asset. And 75% of AI-attributed orders came from outside Shopify's top-100 categories, "suggesting AI discovery disproportionately benefits smaller merchants" — the long tail, which is exactly Shopify's base. Q3 revenue growth guided to the low-30s% versus ~27% consensus, implying a sixth consecutive quarter above 30%, with FCF margin improving to the "high teens" to "low 20s." Bottom line: "Q1 raised the question of whether Shopify was finally slowing. Q2 answered it decisively… AI is increasingly looking like a distribution tailwind rather than the disruption risk investors feared." A disclosed author holding.
Shopify provides the software that lets any business run its own online shop, and takes a slice of what gets sold through it. Sales rose 34% to $3.6 billion, comfortably beating expectations, and the total value of goods sold through its merchants (GMV) rose 32% to $115.6 billion. Cash generation improved sharply: $654 million, or 18 cents of every dollar of revenue, up from 15 cents last quarter.
The reason this quarter mattered is the previous one. Q1 growth slowed slightly and investors began asking whether Shopify's high-growth era was ending. Q2 answered that directly — growth reaccelerated, and management guided the current quarter to roughly 30-plus percent when analysts expected about 27%. That would be six straight quarters above 30%.
The genuinely new information is about AI shopping. As people increasingly ask chatbots to find and buy things, the fear was that AI assistants would go straight to the biggest brands and cut merchants like Shopify's out. The opposite is showing up. Traffic and orders arriving from AI tools both tripled in a year. More importantly, when the AI agent reads Shopify's Catalog — a clean, structured feed of what each shop actually sells, with prices, sizes and stock — the order converts at roughly twice the rate as when the agent scrapes an ordinary web page. Being machine-readable is now worth double.
And the benefit is skewed toward small sellers: 75% of AI-driven orders came from outside Shopify's hundred biggest product categories. Search engines historically buried the long tail; AI assistants appear to surface it. Since the long tail is Shopify's customer base, that reframes AI as a way of getting more customers rather than a threat to them. The author owns it; analysis, not a recommendation.
In short: "Which I think is an interesting growth name" into Wednesday's pre-market print; also one of the three battleground names on JPMorgan's internet sentiment index (with DoorDash and Reddit).
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Owns it (initiated May 2024 on the improved free-cash-flow profile) but "wouldn't try to make too strong an argument that Shopify is cheap here. If it was cheaper, we would definitely own more." Formidable moat, no evidence of Meta/AI disruption in the numbers, and "a bigger, better company than it's ever been."
Shopify provides the software that lets merchants run online stores. Aitken didn't own it for years, then started a position in May 2024 once the business began generating real free cash flow (cash left after running and investing in the business) — the change that made it fit his value-oriented style.
The stock is down 25% even though results have been better than expected. Part of that is the AI-disruption story, sharpened by Meta releasing an AI tool aimed at small and mid-sized businesses. But he thinks there's more to it: with "super high expectation stocks," merely meeting forecasts isn't enough — "you got to keep upping the ante" every quarter.
His verdict is a deliberate fence-sit: he won't argue Shopify is cheap here, and "if it was cheaper, we would definitely own more." He believes the moat is formidable and sees no evidence of disruption in the actual numbers — and with the stock well off its highs "you're getting compensated to own Shopify," a "bigger, better company than it's ever been." Own it, don't chase it.
25:03If it was cheaper, we would definitely own more. I agree, Amber, that I think it's been caught up in this AI disruption narrative, but there might be a little bit more to it than that. I think that there could, with these super high expectation stocks, it's not enough to just deliver growth and maybe even meet expectations.
In short: Passing: named with Amazon as what "we were all adopting" during COVID, when the industrial complex over-earned on the resulting need for storage space. Cycle context only.
59:36and supply chains got challenged and so people needed more space so everything goes in cycles. industrial benefited from that short-term period of time where people needed to have place to store their goods and their supply chains. And so now fast forward to today and rates went up and so you had a little bit of increased vacancy as too much of the supply came to market.
In short: Catalyst update to the prior SHOP work — exponential AI traffic, higher-margin financial-services scaling, and up-market enterprise adoption. Still a preferred AI-growth long.
A quick update on an existing Shopify long — the software platform that powers online stores. The bullish catalysts he's tracking: fast-growing AI-driven traffic to merchants, higher-margin financial services (payments/lending) scaling up, and winning bigger "enterprise" customers. The market wrongly treats Shopify as an AI loser; he sees it as an AI winner.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: The featured long — an under-appreciated AI beneficiary. A growth-analyst deep-dive + DCF (in the attachments) targets ~$190 vs $119.50 Friday close (~60% upside over 1-2 yrs). Q1 GMV $101B (+35% / 30% cc, above the $99B consensus; 4th straight quarter of 30%+), Europe +45%, offline +33%, B2B +80%; revenue ~$3.2B (+34%); FCF $476M (~15% margin, 750 bps ahead) with a 260 bps op-margin improvement despite the AI/token-cost hit. Sidekick weekly use +4x, ~half of all Q1 flows AI-built; Amazon/Meta/Microsoft/Salesforce/Stripe joined its Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) council. Bear case: not cheap on traditional FCF vs Wix, and a miss of the de-risked high-20s growth could still correct it.
Shopify runs the software that lets any business — from a solo store to Skims or Mattel — sell online (and increasingly in physical shops). It makes money two ways: a monthly subscription, and a cut of everything sold through its checkout and payments. The key number is GMV, the total dollars of goods sold across all its stores; Shopify skims a small percentage, so when GMV grows ~35% a year, its revenue does too.
Singh's analyst thinks the market has missed that Shopify is an AI winner, not a victim. Its "Sidekick" assistant and AI-driven shopping search are pulling in twice as many new buyers as old-style search, and Shopify started an industry standard (the UCP) that Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Stripe just signed onto. The stock fell with other software names, so at ~$119.50 he sees roughly $190 (about 60% upside) over one-to-two years. The catch: it's still not "cheap" the way a slow-grower like Wix is, so a growth stumble could sting.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Culture-FUD analogy — layoffs and culture questions while the stock was down; it recovered and "nobody questions their culture today."
14:27We can look at even more examples of this. We saw the same thing with Shopify. When the stock price was down, they were laying off workers and many people questioned their culture. The stock price recovered and nobody questions their culture today. The most striking example of this recently was Google. I was in this stock during a time period where people questioned the culture.
In short: "I think that Shopify is a spectacular winner" — distribution/workflow moat that AI makes more useful, not less.
18:29I think Uber and DoorDash will be spectacular winners. I think that Shopify is a spectacular winner. I think that Airbnb will do really well. We even have companies that there's a bit more debate about companies like Spotify and Duolingo. They don't own proprietary data per se. Spotify just has access to music. Duolingo has access to AI curriculum and courses.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.