In short: Noble's example of narrative dominance in financials: "some crappy alternative lender… some crappy BNPL lender and the loan loss reserve is way too low and it's on six times book for a financial" — at FrontPoint "you'd be pulling your hair out… Oh, but you don't understand. This is SoFi." A disparaging valuation call, not a stated short.
SoFi is an online lender and bank. Noble uses it as an example of a stock that runs on its story: in his view it is a consumer lender (including "buy now, pay later" loans) with too little set aside for bad loans, yet its shares trade at about six times the value of its net assets. For a lender, that is very expensive. A skeptical short seller would balk, but fans say "you don't understand, this is SoFi." It is a critical view, not a stated bet against it.
36:27As Charles God famously once said, if you have more money than fools, you have a bull market. You have more fools than money, you get a bare market. Okay. Okay. It hasn't really mattered. I'm going to put your I'm gonna push back against you, Steve. Right. No, I'm with you. I'm teasing you. Okay. When you look at take some crappy alternative lender, I mean, if you were running Frontp Point now, you know, okay, you got some crappy BNPL lender and the loan loss reserve is way too low and it's on six times book
In short: Records meet a shrug. Q2 revenue +41% Y/Y to $1.2B ($80M beat) and adjusted EPS $0.12 ($0.01 beat), with adjusted EBITDA of $358M and a long list of new records — originations, members, products, tangible book value. Shares fell nearly 10% anyway, the same pattern as Q1's 14% drop; the stock is down more than 40% this year with the Muddy Waters short report still hanging over it. Loan originations hit a record $14.8B, +69%, led by student loans surging 170% to $2.7B as the federal government resumed collections and cut income-based repayment plans — but the more important shift is engagement: cross-buy accelerated to 51% of new products opened by existing members (from 43% in Q1 and 35% a year ago), and SoFi added twice as many products as members for the first time; fee-based revenue reached $472M, recovering from the Q1 miss. The drags: Tech Platform revenue fell 23% to $85M, still lapping the Chime exit — the segment SoFi pitches as its future, so the drag matters beyond the dollars — and guidance is again raise-and-hold (FY26 adjusted revenue lifted to $4.75–4.85B vs ~$4.70B consensus while adjusted EBITDA ~$1.6B and EPS ~$0.60 held flat), which reads as reinvestment or margin pressure. Default rates fell across both personal and student portfolios versus last quarter and last year, cutting against the Muddy Waters charge that SoFi was masking credit deterioration. (Recap, not a stance call.)
SoFi set records on nearly every measure — loans originated (up 69% to $14.8 billion), members, products, book value — and the stock fell 10%, the same as last quarter, leaving it down over 40% this year. The most encouraging number isn't the headline: 51% of new products were opened by existing members, up from 35% a year ago, and SoFi added twice as many products as members for the first time. That's the "one-stop financial app" thesis actually working. Two things weigh on it. The technology-platform division, which SoFi has pitched as its future, fell 23% as it laps the loss of the Chime contract. And a short-seller report from Muddy Waters alleging hidden credit problems still hangs over the shares — though default rates actually fell this quarter across both personal and student loans, which cuts against that claim. Guidance raised revenue but left profit flat, which reads as reinvestment or margin pressure. A recap, not a call.
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