In short: BUY. ER 10.46% (up from 5.96% in August on a higher 12.5% growth input); fwd PE 31.4 vs 45.3 (30.7% under); RDCF 12.0% vs 12.5%.
In short: UPGRADED HOLD → BUY — "Swedish industrial conglomerate." A serial acquirer in the Constellation mould, and the weakest arithmetic on the entire Buy list: fwd PE 31.4 against a 45.3 average (31% under), but an expected return of just 5.96% and a reverse DCF needing 11.8% against 8.0% expected (−3.8pp). Ten-year CAGR 23.9%.
Teqnion is a small Swedish holding company that buys profitable niche industrial businesses and leaves them to run themselves — the same model as Constellation Software, applied to workshops and manufacturers rather than software. Its long-run record is strong: about 24% a year over a decade.
The upgrade to buy is the weakest-supported on the list. The multiple has fallen a long way (31 times earnings against a five-year average of 45), but the letter's own expected return for it is 5.96% a year — barely half what it demands elsewhere — and the reverse-DCF check fails. As with the other two upgrades this month, the change is a judgement the published arithmetic does not endorse.
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