In short: UPGRADED HOLD → BUY, and the Reverse-DCF spotlight. "A French distributor of specialized plumbing, heating, valves, and fluid-control equipment." The market "is only pricing in 2.4% FCF growth for the next 10 years" on pessimism about European construction and slowing renovation subsidies — "This might be too pessimistic": organic growth has turned positive again and analysts expect FCF to grow from 2027. ER 15.92% (11.7% EPS growth + 2.9% yield); fair value €149.4 vs €71.30. YTD −9.5%.
Thermador is a French wholesaler: it stocks the valves, pumps, heating parts and plumbing fittings that installers need and gets them to the job quickly. It is a quiet, cash-generating middleman whose sales rise and fall with European building and renovation work.
The upgrade to buy rests on a simple calculation run backwards. Take today's share price and ask how fast the company's cash flow would have to grow over the next ten years to justify it — the answer is only about 2.4% a year, which is what you would price in for a business that barely grows. The letter thinks that is too gloomy: organic sales (growth without acquisitions) have turned positive again, and analysts expect free cash flow to start rising in 2027. If growth merely returns to normal, the price looks cheap.
A caution: the same spreadsheet prints a different, nonsensical figure for this calculation on its main Buy sheet, and the headline "177% difference" that puts Thermador top of the list comes from that figure. The 2.4% in the text is the one to trust.
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