In short: Named in the same oil-service list; the service sector is where he sees today's bargains.
26:20oil service sector. So you've got names like Trican and CES and Total Energy. And Precision Drilling and Ensign Drilling. So there's opportunities in all three areas and I personally, my wife and I personally own names in each, we own 10 names in the energy sector and probably 18 in total.
In short: Last year's pro pick reviewed: $11 → ~$35, still held. The original call is worth repeating because it was arithmetic, not a hunch: "at the time they were making $2 of earnings. I said I think their earnings are going to double between three and five years to $4, and 10 times multiple, 40 bucks. So we've done that almost exactly in one year." Earnings are now $3 and the growth is identifiable: US compression capacity "almost doubling" mid-construction, acquisitions plus new rigs and service rigs in Australia where "they're the biggest company now," and Canada "very promising with LNG 2, new pipelines." The re-rate is the second leg — "the sector is now a little more popular than they were for a long long time. So these type of stocks could trade at 13, 14 times. So the stock could go to 50," or more. And a free option on top: "the company has net cash right now and Dan the CEO founder has made very active acquisitions in his past… He's very disciplined. So if it doesn't find the right thing, it's not going to do anything. But if it finds the right thing, big boost in earnings." On oil sensitivity he does not dodge — "if oil goes down, they're all going down" — but argues the compression business "is probably pretty safe and it's booming," Australia is LNG-linked and "very very stable," and the Canadian pipelines and LNG Canada Phase 2 go ahead regardless: "I still think their earnings are going to go even if oil pulls back."
Last year's pick and the episode's home run: $11 to about $35. What makes it worth studying is that the original call was a written-down calculation, not a hunch. The company earned $2 a share; he judged earnings would double to $4 over three to five years; he applied a 10x multiple; that gave a $40 target. The company got to $3 in one year, and the stock did most of the work already.
The reason to still hold it is that the same calculation now has more in it. Compression — renting out the equipment that pressurises natural gas so it can move through pipelines — is mid-expansion in the US, with capacity nearly doubling. In Australia the company is now the largest player, serving liquefied natural gas exports to Asia, which he describes as very stable demand. In Canada, new pipelines and LNG Canada's second phase are coming. So $4 of earnings may arrive sooner than three years.
Two further sources of return sit on top. First, a re-rating: energy services have been unloved for years, and "these type of stocks could trade at 13, 14 times," which on $4 is a $50-plus stock. Second, the company holds net cash and the founder-CEO has a history of making significant acquisitions and, importantly, of not making them when the price is wrong. Tardif is candid that if oil falls the whole sector falls with it — but argues that compression, Australian LNG work and Canadian pipeline construction carry on regardless.
41:46Sometimes it's the way the market works, sometimes it's less than you expect. Last year I remember you asked what's your target and I said at the time they were making $2 of earnings. I said I think their earnings are going to double between three and five years to $4, and 10 times multiple, 40 bucks. So we've done that almost exactly in one year.
Nothing matches this filter.
Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.