In short: Not a recommendation — a throwaway on who might still accept Venezuelan expropriation risk now that "the US is out of that business": "Maybe even France. So maybe you could see Total or someone come in and then, if they get stolen, they send in the French Foreign Legion."
39:36some sort of arrangement like that. The US is out of that business at this point. Again, KICO is not getting paid back, so it's really hard for a US company to rely on that government protection. But other countries are still doing that. Maybe even France. So maybe you could see Total or someone come in and then, if they get stolen, they send in the French Foreign Legion, which is what it was for — to go reseize stuff from former colonial whatever.
In short: His single named exception to a blanket criticism of European majors that "totally caved" to net zero: "My exception to that would be Total and Patrick Pouyanne. I actually always liked Total's strategy." A strategy compliment, not a price target.
Murti spends several minutes attacking how oil companies handled the 2020–23 net-zero years: European majors in particular, he says, "totally caved" and announced they were transforming themselves into something other than oil companies. His one named exception is TotalEnergies and its CEO Patrick Pouyanne — "I actually always liked Total's strategy."
What he is praising is coherence, not greenness. Total invested in low-carbon businesses without pretending it was ceasing to be an oil and gas company, and without apologising for the barrels that fund everything. In Murti's framework — where the test of an energy business is whether it earns a decent return through the whole cycle — a strategy you can actually defend in public and fund out of cash flow beats one designed to please a rating agency.
This is a compliment to management strategy, offered in passing. He gives no valuation view.
1:14:58My exception to that would be Total and Patrick Pouyanne. I actually always liked Total's strategy, just to be a little bit clear on that. So tech companies can learn don't follow an oil company executive's position. But tech companies have their own set of a different set of arrogance where I think oil companies try to just stick their head in the ground.
In short: The other European major in Harrington's international strategy, held on the same terms as Shell — a major rather than a refiner, one she is "comfortable holding" but which sits in the group she says is rich and levered to an $86 crude price she doesn't consider sustainable. A hold, not an add.
In short: The energy-sector version of what he admires in Glencore: "I'm seeing like Total in the energy sector is very good at this… They try to capture as much of the value down through not only production of energy… but also trading of these." Value-chain capture, not just barrels.
TotalEnergies is the French oil and gas major, and Polomny cites it as the energy-sector example of the thing he most admires in Glencore: capturing value all the way along the chain instead of just selling raw barrels. Total produces oil and gas, but it also ships, stores, refines and — crucially — trades it, running one of the largest energy trading operations in the world.
In a disrupted market, that trading layer is where dislocation turns into profit: someone has to move the barrels that are suddenly in the wrong place. "They try to capture as much of the value down through not only production of energy… but also trading of these." It's a structural preference, not a valuation call — he isn't quoting a price here.
36:53And their trading profits were — I don't know, they were tremendous. It was a really good result from Glencore. And this is what I like to see. I'm seeing like Total in the energy sector is very good at this, right? They try to capture as much of the value down through not only production of energy, for example, in Total's case, but also trading of these, okay? And Glencore is one of the mining companies that excels at this, also.
In short: "Probably the best company in the world in offshore exploration in West Africa," but as an investment vs Exxon "you need to understand that Total is basically an outsourced apparatus of the French state — not necessarily run for the benefit of shareholders."
Total (the French oil major, "Totel" in the transcript) is technically excellent — the best offshore explorer in West Africa. But Rick warns against owning it as an investment: he considers it "basically an outsourced apparatus of the French state," meaning the government's interests can override shareholders'. Contrast with Exxon, which is run for its owners — a concrete example of the political risk he says "exists in all languages."
41:06American producers has been proven. Now when one looks at competitors say Totel, Totel is probably the best company in the world in offshore exploration in West Africa. and traditionally Total has enjoyed the favor of the French equivalent of the State Department. But if you compare Total as an investment to somebody like Exxon, you need to understand that Total is [laughter] basically an outsourced apparatus of the French state.
In short: Jain: his arithmetic template for how cheap the majors are — at $70 oil TotalEnergies generates a 10% total return (6% dividend yield + 4% annual buybacks) at just 8x net earnings. One of the flagged "case for" names in the article's deck.
Jain's arithmetic for why the big oil companies are the market's cheapest quality assets: at $70 oil, TotalEnergies pays a 6% dividend, retires 4% of its shares each year — a 10% annual return before any growth — and still trades at just 8 times earnings. His view is oil goes higher (the Iran war effectively gives Tehran control of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. strategic reserve is at a 43-year low, shale output is plateauing), but the point of the math is that the stocks work even if he's wrong. Energy also doubles as portfolio insurance: it's the sector that benefits from exactly the inflation that would hurt everything else.
In short: A political-risk example — interference by the French state makes some big, state-influenced international majors "problematic."
Rule cites TotalEnergies as an example of political risk in a rich country, not as a pick. Because the French state heavily influences the company, government interference is a real drag — his reminder that "political risk exists in all languages," not just in emerging markets.
17:35I know that's not the political risk you're thinking about. Uh you're thinking about small — geopolitical things, but yeah, — nationalization, stuff like that. — You know, we don't like to admit it in the United States, but in the oil and gas business, the United States is a politically risky jurisdiction.
In short: Another European integrated cited for cutting its dividend in COVID (the Europeans "weren't built for it").
TotalEnergies is one more European integrated oil company cited for cutting its dividend during COVID — the Europeans, as he puts it, "weren't built for it."
It's part of the contrast he draws to show how much more financially resilient the US majors are. A reference point, not a recommendation.
59:40If you go to COVID, the price of oil went negative. Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and even the high-quality large-cap E&Ps paid that dividend. The Europeans integrateds, they weren't built for it. — What do you mean? So, think about Shell, BP, Total, Repsol, Eni. They cut dividends during COVID. — not as well-run as the Americans.
In short: #7, yield 5.9%. "A French multi-energy giant… transitioning faster than almost any other peer into renewables," reinvesting oil profits into wind and solar and "aiming to be a top-5 global renewable power producer by 2030." Downside protection from cost position: "their traditional oil projects have some of the lowest production costs in the industry, allowing them to remain profitable even at low oil prices." And the relative-value point: "it trades at a significant discount to its U.S. peers (like Exxon or Chevron) despite having a more progressive transition plan."
Nothing matches this filter.
Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.