In short: Again the anchor of the 46-year semiconductor sample: "I've seen a lot of semiconductor companies going all the way back to Texas Instruments… you live by the sword and die by the sword." Evidence for the group call, not a stance on the stock.
8:25So what are investors chasing today specifically that you think looks most vulnerable to that same kind of fate? — Well, it would have to be the semiconductors because semiconductors really — and I've been around 46 or seven years on the street. So I've seen a lot of semiconductor companies going all the way back to Texas Instruments.
In short: Cited as the 40-year proof of the semiconductor pattern, not as a call on the stock: "that's a group that's feast or famine. I've been around them for 40 years, and they're all the way back to Texas Instruments." The pattern is what drives his negative view on the big semis.
Texas Instruments is one of the oldest chip companies in America, and Oakley invokes it as evidence rather than as a pick: he's watched semiconductors for 40 years, "all the way back to Texas Instruments," and the group has always been "feast or famine."
The pattern he's describing is the chip cycle. Shortages produce enormous profits, those profits fund a wave of new capacity, and the capacity arrives just as demand cools — "you're going to blow them up, but they're going to come right back and give it all back one of these days." That history is the basis of his one clear sell instruction in this interview: use current strength as a time to reduce the big semiconductor names.
38:31I think people that don't use this as a time to sell those are going to pay the price. And that's a group that's feast or famine. I've been around them for 40 years, and they're all the way back to Texas Instruments. And they it's feast or famine. You're going to blow them up, but they're going to come right back give it all back one of these days.
In short: Q2 revenue +23% Y/Y to a record $5.5B ($220M beat, +13% sequentially), EPS $2.14 ($0.20 beat) — yet shares fell ~4% after a 70% rally this year, tracking the semiconductor ETF almost perfectly. Analog +26% to $4.4B, Embedded +16% to $788M; industrial ~+30%, data center doubled, and automotive finally inflected to mid-teens growth after two flat quarters (China EVs/hybrids, customer inventories run down to almost nothing). Gross margin 61% and operating margin 42% (from 35%) — on volume and utilization alone. Three caveats: pricing hasn't contributed yet (customer-by-customer increases started, mostly Analog; CEO Haviv Ilan calls the Q3 contribution "almost insignificant," step-up expected in Q4); personal electronics is the soft spot as component shortages squeeze TI's own customers (below-seasonal sequential growth expected); and trailing FCF of $6.5B (+55%) included $1.6B of CHIPS Act money — CFO Rafael Lizardi warned ITC payments are choppy and non-US assembly/test CapEx doesn't qualify. Q3 guide $5.65–6.15B (vs ~$5.6B) and EPS $2.23–2.57 (vs ~$2.18) implies a ninth straight above-seasonal quarter; FY26 CapEx $2–3B (likely high end) vs $4.55B last year. Julie Knecht takes over as CFO Aug 1. (Recap, not a stance call.)
Texas Instruments makes the unglamorous analog and embedded chips that sit inside cars, factory machines, appliances and phones. It just posted a record quarter — sales up 23%, profit margins up sharply — and the interesting detail is how: purely by selling more and running its factories fuller. It hasn't yet raised prices. Management has only started customer-by-customer increases and says the effect this quarter is "almost insignificant," with a real step-up expected later in the year. In other words, there's an untouched profit lever still sitting there. Cars, in particular, finally turned back up after two flat quarters, led by Chinese EVs where customers had run their parts inventories down to nothing.
Two things to keep honest. Consumer electronics is weak, partly because TI's own customers can't get all the components they need. And the reported free cash flow of $6.5 billion flatters reality — $1.6 billion of it was US government CHIPS Act money, which is lumpy and doesn't apply to plants outside America. The stock fell about 4% despite the beat, simply because it had already run up 70% this year alongside the whole chip sector. A recap, not a call.
In short: "I think Texas Instruments is very good." Likes the analog sector — "a decent chance this could look like memory from a pricing standpoint" given how tight things are; favours names with an "AI power angle."
Texas Instruments is the largest maker of "analog" chips — the unglamorous components that handle real-world signals like power, sound, and temperature in virtually every electronic device. Shaulov calls it "very good" and thinks the whole analog sector is interesting because supply is tight.
His key idea: analog pricing "could look like memory" — meaning that as shortages bite, prices (and profits) could rise sharply the way they do in a memory up-cycle. He especially likes analog names with an "AI power angle" — those selling into the power-hungry AI data-center buildout.
23:38I like that one. I think Texas Instruments is very good. I think Renesas in Asia is quite interesting. I think it's just going to stay really tight for a while, and if you find ones with the AI power angle attached to them you're going to have significant upside.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.