In short: Not only fine but a possible winner: an agent can reserve the table but "cannot cook the steak, create the service culture, or reproduce the atmosphere," and because the restaurants are so good, "they may actually get more increased demand as a result of Agentic Commerce."
An agent can book a table, but it can't cook the steak or recreate the atmosphere. Because Texas Roadhouse's restaurants are so well run, he thinks agents that make booking easier could bring it more customers, not fewer.
40:54The same is true for theme parks, gyms, hotels, concerts, travel experiences, and live sports. Asians may reshape discovery and booking while increasing utilization of the underlying physical product. I actually believe that Texas Roadhouse is not only fine, but because all their operations, the actual restaurant so good, they may actually get more increased demand as a result of Agentic Commerce.
In short: $55k (+$47k, 463% money-weighted) — "my best traded stock." Traffic still growing (Q2 comps +6.2% with ~3% traffic), record $177k average weekly sales, commodity inflation guide cut to ~5% as the cattle shortage persists, and a rotation from QSR into sit-down dining. But 12% × 25× = 8.86%; he won't trim again.
Texas Roadhouse is still winning more diners, not just raising prices, and record weekly sales per restaurant. Beef is expensive because the US cattle herd is the smallest in decades, but the company expects its food-cost inflation to ease. Diners are also shifting from fast food toward sit-down restaurants. After a big run he expects about 8.9% a year — fine, but not a buy.
In short: Recent buy up ~35% — part of the rebuttal to "don't you wish you kept Salesforce."
In short: Buy target $140 from $205 (a $60k position with $51.6k of gains). "Texas Roadhouse is my best performing position when we look at the buys and sells when I've trimmed and added." He calls the current price healthy rather than cheap: "it's trading with a lot of positive sentiment. People have finally gotten more bullish on beef and stabilization of cattle… Texas Roadhouse has just been performing top tier." So the target is not an expectation — "I don't believe Texas Roadhouse will get to 140 anytime soon. I'm not planning on that, but if it does… it'll earn the cash." At 11.5–12% EPS growth and a 23 multiple, $140 returns ~13.4%.
18:38We look at Texas Roadhouse and it's a $60,000 position with 51,600 of that being gains. Texas Roadhouse is my best performing position when we look at the buys and sells when I've trimmed and added to the position. Now, Texas Roadhouse trades at 205, which I believe is a very healthy price. It's trading with a lot of positive sentiment.
In short: The other portfolio name in the same risk-factor roll-call — a restaurant operator sitting deliberately alongside payments, semis, advertising and cloud so that no single macro variable ("the same Achilles' heel") can take the whole book down. Disclosed as held; no fresh thesis in this episode.
8:08I have Meta, which is completely different risk factors than MasterCard. I have ASML, which is completely different risk factors than all these companies. We have Google, which has some overlap with Meta, but is also very very different. S&P Global, Costco, Microsoft, Texas Roadhouse, DoorDash and Uber. In the story fund, I have other companies that are similar.
In short: "This stock cannot be stopped" — $211, at all-time highs, +24% YTD before dividends; a $61,000 position with $53,000 of gains, "one of the best investments that I've ever made." Still bullish: a compounding machine, "the best operated" restaurant in the world with a long growth runway. The kicker is cost normalization — it is posting these numbers while beef and labour inflation run hot, so "when those factors improve… we have an incredible margin expansion story."
Texas Roadhouse is a steakhouse chain and one of his best-ever investments — a $61,000 position with $53,000 of gains, at all-time highs ($211, up 24% this year before dividends). He calls it a compounding machine and "the best operated" restaurant company in the world, with plenty of room to keep opening locations.
The part most people miss is where the next leg comes from. It is putting up these numbers while two of its biggest costs — beef and wages — are unusually expensive. Those costs are cyclical. When they normalise, the savings drop straight to the bottom line, which is why he sees "an incredible margin expansion story" ahead rather than a stock that has already had its run.
22:18It's one of my best positions, one of the best investments that I've ever made. Currently, it's a $61,000 position, $53,000 in the green. And I'm still bullish on Texas Roadhouse. I still believe this company is worth owning because it is a compounding machine. It's one of the best restaurants in the world. I think it actually is the best operated one in the world.
In short: Added $5,000 recently and it "raced up over the past month" — a bright spot. ~9.3% revenue with an EPS spike on margin recovery (more cattle) plus 20–30 new units a year (also owns Jaggers / a bar-and-grill brand). Moat is "stable to maybe slightly weakened" only because Chili's/Longhorn have improved — but TXRH runs near 100% kitchen efficiency, "always busy."
Carlson added $5,000 to Texas Roadhouse and it "raced up" — a bright spot. It grows ~9% revenue with an earnings spike coming as beef-cost pressure eases, plus 20–30 new restaurants a year (it also owns Jaggers and a bar-and-grill concept). The one nuance: its moat is "stable to maybe slightly weakened," not because Texas Roadhouse slipped but because rivals like Chili's and Longhorn have sharpened up. He's unconcerned — TXRH runs its kitchens near 100% efficiency and is "always busy."
In short: 15% off highs, mid valuation range; moat intact, organic new-restaurant growth, and beef prices set to ease as cattle sizing grows. Buy.
Texas Roadhouse is the steakhouse chain. The stock is 15% off its high and trading around the middle of its normal valuation range — not dirt cheap, but reasonable.
He likes the setup: the brand and customer loyalty (its "moat") are intact, it keeps opening new restaurants organically, and a key cost — beef — is expected to fall as cattle grow larger and supply improves. A solid, growing business at a fair price, so he calls it a buy.
6:13The company's stock price has moved way ahead of its intrinsic value. The intrinsic value needs to catch back up with the stock price. So, I would pass on Costco. We move into Texas Roadhouse. This one is 15% off of its highs. It's towards the middle of its 52- week range and it's in the middle of its historical valuation on a PE and a price to free cash flow.
In short: Sells steak — an outright commodity with no barriers to entry — yet earns ~17.7% ROIC (commodities earn 8–12%), roughly double. The edge is service, consistency and execution, not the product.
Texas Roadhouse is the steakhouse chain, used as an analogy. Steak is the ultimate commodity — anyone can grill one, no special barrier to entry — so a steakhouse "should" earn only ordinary returns (roughly 8–12 cents of profit per dollar of money invested). Yet Texas Roadhouse earns about 17.7%, close to double, because it isn't really selling steak; it's selling consistent service, atmosphere and a reliably good night out that's hard to copy. His takeaway: an ordinary product can still support an extraordinary business — so "AI models are interchangeable" doesn't mean there's no money to be made.
15:12People don't really care whether or not it's only available on Netflix. They just want to be entertained. Another example of a commodity product ultimately earning far more than commodity pricing is Texas Roadhouse. We can look at the return on capital employed for Texas Roadhouse. This is very similar and almost exchangeable for the return on invested capital.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.