In short: US gas at ~$3/MMBtu is "just ridiculously cheap" against a world price "now pushing over 20" — "I really like US natural gas, US natural gas producers which are also very cheap." Europe's gas in storage "has fallen off the cliff" to the lowest of the last 15 years and "they're going to pay a severe price this winter."
UNG tracks the US price of natural gas. Hay's case is a price gap so wide it looks like a mistake: American gas sells for about $3 per unit while the same fuel sells for over $20 in Europe and Asia (shipped there in liquefied form, as LNG). Gaps like that tend to close, and they close by the cheap side rising.
The trigger he's watching is the coming winter. Europe's gas in storage has "fallen off the cliff" to the lowest level in at least fifteen years, just as Middle East hostilities threaten LNG cargoes. If Europe has a cold winter, it will bid aggressively for whatever gas is available: "I think they're going to pay a severe price this winter."
He likes both the commodity and the companies that produce it — "US natural gas producers which are also very cheap" — as a rare corner of the market where the asset is cheap and demand is about to rise.
23:09But maybe you want to chat a bit more about oil and gas. We didn't really talk about gas, but gas is I know Jeff Curry is incredibly bullish on gas as I am. the US gas and the $3 per MMBTU million British thermal units per thousand BCF is just ridiculously cheap. Around the world, you've got it now pushing over 20 because there is and we've got a visual coming up about the gas shortage in Europe.
In short: His most bullish call — US gas is ~90% cheaper than global LNG; data centers run on gas and LNG-export demand is rising while positioning is bearish; gas is "dirt cheap."
UNG is a fund that tracks the US price of natural gas. This is Hay's single most bullish idea. US gas is shockingly cheap — about 90% below what gas (as "LNG," the liquefied form shipped overseas) sells for in Asia and Europe. That gap, he argues, is too big to last; sooner or later US prices get pulled up toward the world price.
Demand is also rising fast: AI data centers are powered mainly by gas, and the US is building export terminals to ship more abroad — especially now that Qatar's supply is offline. Meanwhile traders are betting against gas, which often marks a bottom. He thinks people will look back and ask "how did I not load up at these prices?"
14:41So, the the solution is to have more energy now. So this isn't really happening at a very convenient time to have this tremendous supply shortage. Now fortunately those data centers are to be powered by natural gas, not oil. And natural gas has stayed remarkably cheap. And that's where I think you've got I mean really I'm more bullish on natural gas longterm than I am even on oil because of the there's just tremendous demand drivers.
In short: Accessible way for retail to get gas exposure — but warns of the futures-roll "financial decay" that erodes long-term returns.
UNG is a fund meant to track the price of natural gas, giving ordinary investors easy exposure without a futures-trading account.
His caution: to track gas, the fund constantly has to "roll" futures contracts — sell expiring ones and buy later-dated ones — which usually costs money each time. Over the long run this "decay" quietly eats away returns, so the fund lags the actual commodity. Fine for a quick trade, weaker as a long-term hold.
28:55And they go up live via WhatsApp. So we have to recommend something that is broadly easy to buy. That's why like look at the UNG ETF, or the USO. Everyone knows that these ETFs, some of them where there's a curve play in the futures market — this is really important for people watching.
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