In short: Named only as a potential acquirer — the most likely Waystar buyer. "Optum in UnitedHealth Group that wants to diversify into software. Optum is the most obvious strategic acquirer in terms of scale. Following anti-trust scrutiny around Change Healthcare, Optum has an appetite for high-margin RCM software, though any transaction would face stringent FTC, DOJ regulatory reviews."
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Passing mention — #6 on the same slide, at 19.7%/yr, the last name above Fairfax. No view.
In short: Simpson's final trade (42:15). "Expectations have reset and I think the risk reward is finally turned favorable." Second day running as a committee final trade (Weiss picked it 9/16).
In short: Weiss's final trade. "It's been a rough time lately, but I think it's on its way to recovery."
In short: Simpson's new buy of the day — a re-entry a year after being stopped out. "A stock we've owned off and on for the past 15 years. Most recently we were stopped out early in 2025… around 355, 360 average cost. Ultimately it got down to about 235, and finally the stock has come back to the point where we feel like the earnings are closer to a trough than a peak… adjusted earnings per share was $6.38. But more importantly, we saw analysts guide up, and the guide from management is close to $20 per share… we sold it for relative underperformance… a year later we're coming back into the name." Saccocia corroborates on the operating metric: "UNH and others have gotten their medical loss ratios under control. There's potentially some earnings improvement. And we're not even talking about what could happen after the midterms." Context: healthcare is having its worst week since March.
UnitedHealth is the largest US health insurer. The number that governs its profits is the medical loss ratio — the share of premium dollars paid straight back out as medical claims. When members use more care than was priced in, that ratio rises and earnings collapse, which is what happened through 2025.
Simpson was forced out of the stock near $355–360 and watched it fall to about $235. He is buying back now because the ratio is under control and, crucially, because the direction of estimates has flipped: analysts are raising rather than cutting, and management is guiding near $20 per share. His phrase for it is that earnings are "closer to a trough than a peak" — he is not calling the bottom in the price, he is calling the bottom in the earnings.
In short: A retrospective on the Affordable Care Act as a "continued sop to the insurance companies": "the thing to do when they passed the Affordable Care Act was buy United Healthcare stock. You would have done tremendously well." No forward call — he expects the system to break toward Medicare for All.
56:17buy United Healthcare stock. You would have done tremendously well. And so this is going to continue until it can't continue anymore because people are starting to drop out of this now. This is crazy. I can't pay $26,000 a year for family insurance and have a $10,000 deductible. This is nuts. Okay. And so the calls will be of course
In short: Asked about health insurance, Verrone concedes a miss: "these put major lows in. I missed it. They put major lows in late last year early this year. The UNH's of the world, the Signas. I got too dogmatic on those and I missed it. We try not to do that." Constructive on the group, but he says the leadership right now is pharma and biotech rather than managed care. Trennert's caveat: populist politics runs against "big anything," and government's expanding role that "worked for them for many years" now works the other way on pricing.
UnitedHealth is the largest US health insurer. It came up when Eisman asked about health insurance specifically, and Verrone's answer is unusual in a market conversation: an admission of error. The group put in major lows late last year and early this year, and he missed them because "I got too dogmatic on those."
The lesson embedded in it is the useful part. A view held for good reasons becomes a liability once the price has already discounted it; his own discipline — "we try not to do that" — is to let the tape retire a thesis rather than defending it. He is constructive on the group now but says the actual leadership is in pharma and biotech, not managed care.
Trennert's counterweight applies to the whole sector: politics in the US is "increasingly getting populist," there is "a reaction against big anything," and where government sets prices "it's going the other way." Government expansion helped these companies for years; it now works against them.
41:07So if I'm going to rate defensives, health care comes at the top of that pile. Staples probably still near the bottom. You are getting very fast. How's health insurance? These put major lows in. I missed it. They put major lows in late last year early this year. The UNH's of the world, the Signas.
In short: Beat and raised — reported quarterly profit well ahead of the Street and lifted its outlook (EPS ~$19.5-20), a step better than last quarter's guide after the earlier selloff.
The health-insurance giant beat expectations and raised its full-year outlook (guiding to roughly $19.5-20 of earnings per share) — a step up from last quarter's guidance after the stock had sold off. A straightforward beat-and-raise on a name that had been beaten down.
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In short: Weiss's earnings-setup pick (reports next Thursday): with Steve Hemsley back as CEO he expects continued upside beats — Hemsley "ruthless in getting cost under control," going back to what made it a permanent compounder.
In short: Weiss holds it; highest since April '25. Two things going for it: fundamental headway last quarter (expected to continue with Hemsley back) and healthcare's defensiveness — it trades green on red-for-AI days, balancing the portfolio. Caveat: healthcare's still a "major headwind" longer-term.
UnitedHealth is the largest US health insurer, and Weiss owns it for two reasons. First, the fundamentals are improving — the company made progress last quarter and is expected to keep doing so with veteran executive Stephen Hemsley back in charge. Second, it's "defensive": people need healthcare regardless of the economy, so the stock tends to rise on days when AI and tech stocks are falling, which balances out a portfolio. His caveat is that healthcare as a sector still faces big political and cost "headwinds" longer-term, so it's a hold for the balance it provides, not a forever bet.
In short: #8 on the two-quarter aggregate Top Buys table and absent from the single-quarter one — i.e. the accumulation is older. No analysis offered.
In short: Bill — new, ~2% bought in Q4 (at 300, then 271). The formerly most-admired healthcare name, now with a president "breathing down their neck" — policy-headwind pattern that got them into Bank of America / JPMorgan. Fits the eight criteria; "Hemsley bought" (insider buying) is what got them involved. Earns less than before, but a 7% compounded return would be great if the S&P loses money.
UnitedHealth is the once-beloved health-insurance giant now under intense political pressure, with its stock cut down hard. Smead bought about a 2% position late last year (around $300, then $271) precisely because of that policy headwind — it's the same setup that led him to buy Bank of America and JPMorgan during past bank crises. The clincher was insider buying by chairman Stephen Hemsley. He expects it to earn less than before, but if the overall market goes nowhere for a decade, a steady ~7% annual return here would be a big win.
39:36Let's at least allocate capital. — So, we like mean reversion trades. So we saw a chart that showed that healthcare was incredibly undervalued in relation to the rest of the S&P. Yeah. Therefore, we do some homework. And so that kind of leads into, okay, so here is the formerly most admired company in the entire healthc care space, the United Healthcare, uh has a huge hickey, has the president of the United States breathing down their neck, uh has a earnings.
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