In short: Still his core platinum holding — "my large holding in Valterra," now diversified with PPLT calls. Shortage intact (1m lease rates high-teens), and he expects platinum to normalize to parity/premium vs gold "quickly."
In short: "I remain very long Valterra" — his primary equity expression of the platinum-shortage thesis (JSE: VAL, the demerged/renamed Anglo American Platinum). His preferred play among the SA PGM miners in the depletion story (with Implats and Sibanye). Flags idiosyncratic risk: SA jurisdiction or a Valterra-specific operational issue would give platinum "a religious experience"; hedges the position with platinum futures.
Platinum has quietly doubled in a year, and Paulo's point is that this isn't a speculative bubble — the physical metal is genuinely scarce. The tells: it costs about 19% a year to borrow physical platinum (there's almost none to lend), and near-term platinum sells for more than later-delivery platinum ("backwardation"), which for a precious metal is bizarre and screams shortage. China has been hoovering up and stockpiling the metal, and Trump-era tariff fears pulled a lot of it into the US, draining the London market.
His anchor is the price of platinum versus gold. Platinum is far rarer than gold, and for most of history traded at a premium to it; over the last decade it fell to a ~70% discount. If that relationship simply returns to its 40-year average, platinum roughly doubles to ~$4,800 an ounce even if gold doesn't move — and he thinks that snap-back happens fast, not over years.
Valterra (the South African platinum miner spun out of Anglo American) is how he owns the theme — a pure platinum producer that gives leveraged upside if the metal keeps climbing. He notes a rival, Sibanye, is even more geared (more debt, some US assets), and he hedges his Valterra stake with platinum futures in case a company-specific or South-Africa-specific problem hits the stock. The main risk is that the whole thing is a momentum move that can reverse sharply — but he'd treat selloffs as chances to add.
Nothing matches this filter.
Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.