| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 3 | $192.33 | $577 | 0.02% | $172.00 | $61 | +11.8% | — |
In short: Cited as one of the passive alternatives his fund is built to beat — "to try to outperform versus ETFs, whether it's XOP, the large cap oil and gas producer ETF here in the US." (His description; XOP is in fact the E&P ETF.) No view on the fund itself.
2:18And then also to try to get the exposure to oil versus gas, upstream versus midstream etc., to try to outperform versus ETFs, whether it's XOP, the large cap oil and gas producer ETF here in the US, or PSE, the small cap producer ETF, or even XLE, the large cap, the largest, which is mostly just Exxon and Chevron.
In short: The breadth confirmation under the energy move: "the XOP highest since June of 2015." Paired with the IXC all-time high and the 52-week highs in ConocoPhillips, Valero and Marathon, it is the evidence behind Terranova's claim that commodities are "arguably the strongest trade in the market" — copper toward highs and agriculture included.
In short: Trimmed counter-trend; one of the four big energy ETFs — the whole energy complex is only ~$3T.
XOP is a fund that holds a basket of oil & gas "exploration and production" companies — the firms that actually find and pump the oil. Buying it is a simple way to own the whole group at once.
He trimmed it after the recent rally but stays bullish. His big-picture point: all the major energy ETFs combined are worth only about $3 trillion, tiny next to the roughly $31 trillion in the Nasdaq-100. Because the sector is so small, even a little money rotating in can push it up a lot.
6:23Because right now the XLE ETF, all the stocks combined are only worth about two trillion bucks. And then if you look at the FCG ETF, the OIH, and the XOP — those are the four big energy ETFs. It's maybe three trillion dollars in all of the energy stocks combined, whereas the NASDAQ 100 is about 31 trillion. So we're in the early stages of this multi-generational bull market for energy equities.
In short: Reference: the E&P ETF cited alongside XLE/OIH on depressed energy fund assets, and as the equity vehicle roughly flat over two years while Brent flat price is -10% — equities have already run vs the oil price.
In short: Points to collapsing short interest as the setup: when short interest collapsed in 2021 the ETF ran ~90%. After a "three-year bear market" in oil names, relative strength is improving across integrateds, Canadians, drillers and services — "if short interest collapses… what kind of a move could we be looking at?"
XOP is a basket of oil and gas producers. Polomny points to "short interest" — the number of traders betting it will fall — which is very high but starting to drop. The last time those bearish bets unwound (around 2021), the ETF jumped roughly 90%. After a three-year slump and with sentiment this negative, he sees the setup for a big move once the shorts give up.
32:55And this is what we're seeing. Same thing with the oil and gas E&P ETF. You see that this bottom chart is the short interest, right? The outstanding short interest. If you go back, it's interesting — you see how high we are currently. It's kind of coming down now, but you see like back in 2022 or 2021, as short interest collapsed, we kind of had a 90% move just in this XOP ETF. Interesting.
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