Strategas's chief chartist & ETF strategist — chart- and ETF-flow-driven reads of the leadership groups, sector rotation, and the market-structure froth (leveraged / thematic / single-stock ETFs). Running synthesis of his video/podcast appearances, with per-transcript breakdowns and a stock index.
His long-held power-story favorite, tied to the semis boom — great trend, overbought and consolidating on profit-taking, "still looks good" and buyable.
The leadership group and his read on the whole market — semis now 18-19% of the S&P (up from 2% a decade ago); super overbought but "the market lives and breathes by this index."
Gold falling off — a blow-off from last year's "metal mania"; didn't rally on war/inflation as expected and money is leaving gold ETFs, so "maybe this starts to bottom out."
In one line: read the tape one chart at a time and through ETF flows — right now semis (SOXX) and power (GEV) are "in charge of the market," Google is the best mega-cap chart, while software (IGV), Oracle, Meta and Microsoft are messy-to-short (200-day slopes flattening/rolling over); and the flows say it's "one game" (tech), so an index/quality/factor fund is a disguised tech bet — diversification that isn't — with leveraged/thematic ETFs the froth and gold/Bitcoin ETFs bleeding out (maybe bottoming).
Semis & power are the leadership; the market lives by them. SOXX (semis 18-19% of the S&P, up from 2% a decade ago) and GEV (the power story) are overbought-but-buyable leaders; "if this index collapsed, by definition the market would collapse." Google is the best mega-cap chart; Amazon's "an eh"; software/Oracle are messy, and Meta ("looks more like a short") + Microsoft (retesting spring lows) have 200-day slopes flattening/rolling over.
The 200-day slope + new-high divergence are the trend tells. A rising 200-day = healthy; flattening/rolling-over = trend changing — and a leader that stops making new highs while the index does is a fade/short candidate. RSI divergences (a new high that's less overbought) flag exhaustion.
ETF flows are an investor-behavior barometer — and it's "one game." Since the March-30 low, ~$27B went into tech ETFs vs −$4.4B for every other sector combined; ETFs are ~30% of US volume (40-45% in stress), and mutual funds have been in cumulative outflow since 1984 (−$5.1T from active equity). "If there's an unwind in tech, it's going to be ugly."
Look under the hood — index & "quality"/factor funds are hidden tech bets. Tech is ~40% of the S&P (>50% with Google + Amazon); a "quality" ETF now has near-perfect R-squared to the S&P. Owning an index is not diversification. History as a road map: groups crossing >15% S&P weight (hardware, energy, software) mostly ended badly.
Market-structure froth + washed-out assets. Leveraged + levered-single-stock ETFs (~$200B, daily-rebalancing that adds volatility) and thematic funds (avg ~32% drawdown, 70% Sharpe <1) are the speculation; meanwhile gold (a "metal mania" blow-off) and Bitcoin ("rough," degens gone to Kalshi) are bleeding ETF money — but "the bar's low" and each "maybe starts to bottom out."
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its full stock table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.
Todd Sohn appearances discovered via YouTube search (Todd Sohn Strategas), not yet processed — verify publish dates & channels before processing. (None queued yet.)