In one line: P&C insurance has left a seven-year hard market for a soft one — so avoid personal auto, pick commercial carriers for distribution moats and reserve cushions (Travelers, then cheap self-help AIG), and own the insurance brokers, whose growth has bottomed and whose AI risk is overblown.
Personal lines: most negative of his career. Auto insurers took ~60% rate when ~40% was needed, are still over-earning into a once-in-a-generation soft market likely to run through end-2027, and ADAS driver-assist is cutting collision frequency — shrinking the market itself. Progressive Neutral despite being perhaps the best insurer. (2026-SEP-07)
Commercial lines: the early soft-market playbook. Favour middle-market, agent-distributed books and conservative reserves — Travelers over Chubb — then, a year in, rotate to what hasn't worked: AIG near book value with non-cyclical self-help targets. (2026-SEP-07)
Reinsurers: TBD. Consolidation adds franchise value and stability, but the industry has accepted unacceptable returns before. (2026-SEP-07)
Brokers: top sub-group. Organic growth bottoming at 4–5% (3% last soft market) at last-cycle multiples; clients treat Marsh/Aon as their insurer, so the AI-disintermediation scare misreads the plumbing — only HR/benefits consulting carries real risk. (insights)
Specialty oddballs. Trupanion a bad business with an M&A floor; Kinsale a savvy E&S underwriter never tested in a soft market. (2026-SEP-07)
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.