In short: Held, and "I'm keeping Door Dash as a position" — mixed, but more defensible than Booking or Intuit. An agent comparing DashPass against Uber Eats, direct ordering and pickup attacks the app habit, yet delivery "is not a database lookup" (carrier density, dispatch, batching, fraud, refunds), so agents still route to the densest network, "which is likely Door Dash." Notes the stock has "dropped down a little" as investors price in the intermediary risk — rightly.
Many people order from DoorDash out of habit. An agent that compares DoorDash with Uber Eats, ordering direct from the restaurant, or pickup breaks that habit. But delivery isn't a website lookup — it needs thousands of drivers nearby, smart routing, fraud checks and refunds. Whoever has the densest network will still win the agent's order, and that's likely DoorDash. He holds it, keeps it, and thinks the recent dip reflects this risk being priced in.
23:02Now, even with something that has as defensible of an infrastructure and network and logistics as Door Dash, even taking away the interface is still some intermediary risk. It's something to take into account. When I look at my holding in Door Dash, I can see that it's dropped down a little bit. And I believe it's because investors are becoming a little concerned about these type of things, which they should be factoring in now.
In short: New $26k position (+$4.7k, +22%). Building autonomy in-house — FAA Part 135 for DoorDash Aero drones and Dot robots handling a high-single-digit share of orders in test markets. Numbers "still good, but not as good as Uber" after a fast run — "Uber is likely a bit stronger of a buy."
In short: Bought after reading the viral AI-eats-software post that singled DoorDash out (agents would find the cheapest delivery network) — "their whole thing is ridiculous" — and it's up ~32–33% since.
In short: Buy target $120 — the most aggressive discount on the board at ~47%, and explicitly a valuation judgement: "with the high-flying valuation of DoorDash today, I need it to come down so that I can get a more conservative approach here." One of his personal favourites and his fastest winner — bought only a couple of months ago, already +31% / +$6,700 to a $28k position, funded by trimming ASML near $2,000. On a 28% EPS growth assumption, $120 still only produces 15% a year. He also notes the irony of holding it next to Duolingo — one company bets people will better themselves, the other "delivers food to your doorstep so that you have to put minimal effort into life… so far, that convenience is winning out."
DoorDash is his fastest winner and, precisely because of that, the hardest name on his own board to buy more of. Bought only a couple of months ago and already up 31% to a $28,000 position, it now carries what he calls a "high-flying valuation" — so his target is $120, a roughly 47% decline, by far the steepest discount he demands anywhere.
Even that target only clears his bar with an aggressive growth assumption: 28% annual earnings growth, which at $120 yields about 15% a year. In other words, this is a company he likes and holds, priced today at a level where the incremental $10,000 would be better used almost anywhere else in the book.
He also flags the entry as a process win worth noting: the purchase was funded by trimming ASML near $2,000, and the swapped capital has earned a higher return since — "one where I feel like I timed my entry point and buy into it really well."
21:57I think we could see the earnings per share growth go much higher than that. At an EPS multiple or a PE ratio of 27 and we buy the stock at $90 per share, we get a 14.2% compounded return over the next 5 years. Next up, we have one of my personal favorites, which is DoorDash. And it's a bit funny to see Duolingo next to DoorDash.
In short: One of the nine selective non-AI growth names attracting Q2 buyers.
In short: Held, and the destination of his Booking Holdings profits: "I made a decision to go from Booking Holdings, which is a vacation aggregator, to move into DoorDash and Uber, which are travel and ride-sharing and delivery aggregators… I believe Uber and DoorDash are more early in their respective journeys… Booking's already won the game." Also named in his risk-factor spread alongside Costco, Microsoft, Texas Roadhouse and Uber.
DoorDash appears here as the other half of a swap. Carlson sold Booking Holdings — a business he still calls one of the highest quality in the world — and moved the money into DoorDash and Uber. All three are aggregators: platforms that sit between many suppliers and many customers and make the matching work.
The reasoning is about where each sits in its life cycle rather than quality. Booking "has already won the game, and it's already towards the end," while DoorDash and Uber are "more early in their respective journeys" — still building the network, still growing into their economics. Trading a finished compounder for two unfinished ones is a deliberate bet on the remaining runway.
21:05They do a ton of buybacks. And I made good gains on this one in a couple of years. I took profits from it. I removed the position to concentrate my portfolio. And I made a decision to go from Booking Holdings, which is a vacation aggregator, to move into DoorDash and Uber, which are travel and ride-sharing and delivery aggregators.
In short: DashPass takes over. Q2 revenue +36% Y/Y to $4.45B (a $110M beat) with GAAP EPS $0.46 (a $0.01 miss) and adjusted EBITDA $914M, +40% and roughly $70M ahead of consensus. Unit economics improved too: net revenue margin held at 13.5% while contribution profit margin rose to 5.0% of GOV from 4.7%. Including Deliveroo, orders +27% to 970 million and Marketplace GOV +36% to $33.1B — but excluding Deliveroo, GOV still grew 23%, revenue 24% and orders 17%, "showing the headline growth isn't just acquisition-driven." DashPass is the flywheel: paid membership additions over the past year exceeded the prior two years combined, and in grocery and retail DashPass members now generate roughly 75% of orders on higher frequency and larger baskets. New verticals are still expected to turn gross-profit positive in the second half, with the gains being reinvested into autonomous delivery (its own Dot robots now doing real deliveries in Phoenix) and unifying DoorDash, Wolt and Deliveroo onto one stack. Q3 GOV guided to $33–$34B and adjusted EBITDA to $950M–$1.1B, with the profit midpoint comfortably above consensus. A disclosed author holding.
In short: The other half of the split buy, already +15% (+$3,000), reporting this week. ~60% US food-delivery share expected to go "from 60% to 70" — "a dominant unbreakable moat of food delivery within the United States." His demand thesis is secular: as wealth and GDP per capita rise and delivery costs fall, convenience wins — "DoorDash represents convenience." Watching deliveries and DashPass growth, not profits: "scaling is the name of the game."
DoorDash is the other half of the split buy, already up 15% (+$3,000), reporting this week. The core fact is share: around 60% of US food delivery today, and expected to move toward 70% — a lead that compounds into what he calls "a dominant unbreakable moat."
His demand argument is that paying for delivery still strikes many people as a waste of money, but that this changes structurally: as incomes rise and the cost of delivery falls, more people buy convenience — and "DoorDash represents convenience." Into the print he cares about delivery volumes and DashPass subscriptions rather than profit, because the company is still scaling.
15:03For example, when we look at DoorDash, a lot of people don't realize how big DoorDash is in the United States. They have around 60% market share of food delivery within the US. That's big. That's already a dominant moat. But not only that, they're expected for that market share to grow. They're expected to go from 60% to 70.
In short: "Quite an interesting company" — not owned yet, but a defined buy trigger. On $100 of gross order value it keeps only $13, and after marketing/engineering/refunds/payments is left with ~80c of EBITDA pre-SBC (46c after) on a ~$32 order: <2% per order. But the slope matters: that was −38c in 2022. Double the order count and add another 50c per order and you get ~$7B of operating profit by 2030. "If you see a sell-off in DoorDash, it could be a very interesting buy."
DoorDash's economics look terrible at first glance. On a $100 food order it only keeps $13, and after paying for marketing, engineers, refunds and payment processing it's left with about 46 cents of real profit — under 2% of the order.
What matters is the direction: that number was minus 38 cents in 2022. Profit per order has improved by roughly 50 cents in three years. If DoorDash doubles its order volume and improves another 50 cents per order over five years, that's about $7 billion of operating profit by 2030. Singh doesn't own it — he's waiting for a sell-off, because the business is compounding faster than the headline margin suggests.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Cited as the other half of the consolidation wave that makes Uber's deal look inevitable: "DoorDash bought Deliveroo. Prosus took Just Eat Takeaway. Food delivery rewards density, and the last independents are running out of room to stay independent." (Referenced; not a stance call.)
In short: Ellenbogen (re-recommend): 65% U.S. food-delivery share and still gaining; sold off when the market wrongly labeled digital names "terminal-value risk" after Claude Opus 4.5. Costs ~$4 less per delivery than in 2020 (Dasher-network density moat); Deliveroo accelerated to 20% growth; grocery inflecting; margins could expand significantly as the ~$500M tech platform goes live. Sees >$10 EPS in 2028 growing 30%+/yr; stock ~$188 approaching $300.
DoorDash delivers about two-thirds of America's restaurant orders and is expanding into groceries and retail. When Anthropic's latest AI model spooked the market about anything digital, DoorDash got lumped in — but Ellenbogen argues its moat is physical, not digital: a dense network of drivers that AI can't replicate, which already makes each delivery ~$4 cheaper than in 2020. With Europe's Deliveroo accelerating, grocery catching on with younger customers, and a new tech platform about to boost margins, he sees earnings passing $10 a share by 2028 and the stock going from ~$188 toward $300.
In short: Recently added alongside Uber — the stock ran to $281, traded down to 150 "that's where I bought in," now back to ~190. "Both early in their growth path… both suffered extensive sell-offs throughout this market dynamic." Excited about both.
DoorDash is the companion buy to Uber — same idea, different category (food delivery instead of rides). The stock ran all the way up to $281, then fell to $150, which is where Carlson bought; it has since recovered to about $190.
He likes both Uber and DoorDash because they're "early in their growth path" and both suffered heavy sell-offs in this rotation out of everything-but-chips. In other words, he's buying two dominant, still-growing platforms while they're temporarily out of favor. (He also noted his passive-income portfolio just crossed $1 million.)
26:06DoorDash is another one where the stock price went up to $281 per share. It traded down to 150. That's where I bought in on the company. It's traded back up a little bit now to 190. So, when I look at these companies, I have my portfolio today, which by the way, it cracked a million dollars in the passive income portfolio.
In short: A brand-new position; ~20.5% revenue and ~40% EPS growth next year. "Very high conviction it's improved" over the past year — more trips, more US restaurant-delivery share, and density that inherently widens the moat. Long-term watch item is 10-year margin durability + category-expansion proof.
DoorDash is a brand-new holding, growing revenue ~20% and earnings ~40%. Carlson has "very high conviction" its moat improved over the past year: it's doing far more deliveries and taking more US restaurant-delivery share, and in a delivery network, more density automatically makes the moat wider (faster, cheaper, more reliable than a smaller rival can be). The open question he's watching is whether margins hold up a decade out as it expands into new categories.
In short: New buy — $10k initiated alongside Uber. 60–70% US food-delivery share, DashPass 35M members, 56% revenue CAGR, already profitable at $1.75B TTM free cash flow (less far along the operating-leverage curve than Uber); ~40–43% off its highs.
DoorDash is the dominant US food-delivery app — 60–70% of the market — and Carlson bought it at the same time as Uber, $10,000 to start, as the second of his "left-behind quality" picks. The stock is down roughly 40–43% from its highs even though the business is growing fast: revenue has compounded at 56%, and he expects high-teens growth (17–20%) to continue. Like Uber, it runs a membership program (DashPass, 35 million members) that lowers fees and locks customers in, similar to a Costco membership.
Importantly, DoorDash is already profitable, throwing off $1.75 billion of free cash flow over the past year — it's just earlier in turning its scale into profit than Uber is, so there's more upside as that "operating leverage" plays out. In short: a structurally entrenched, fast-growing, cash-generative leader trading well below its old price because the crowd is busy chasing AI.
21:05We also look at DoorDash. All the different metrics with their orders, gross volume, EBITDA, all of these graphs are going up and to the right. And DoorDash actually is a profitable company. It's not as far along in its monetization and operating leverage as Uber, but it's already reached profitability. They're generating $1.75 billion in free cash flow as of the trailing 12 months.
In short: Uber's "less talked about" competitor — dominant outside big cities, expanding into grocery; 46% off highs, low historical P/E and P/FCF with a long growth path. Buy.
DoorDash is Uber's food-delivery rival — the one he thinks gets overlooked because big-city and Wall Street types default to Uber, while DoorDash dominates smaller towns and suburbs. Beyond delivering food well, it's expanding into groceries.
The stock is 46% off its high with a low historical price-to-earnings and price-to-cash-flow, and it still has room to grow more profitable as it scales. He rates it a buy, and notes Mark Mahaney has targets near double for both DoorDash and Uber.
17:22So I believe Uber today is a buy. The other one that I would add to this list that I think is less talked about, at least in my community, is its direct competitor Door Dash. Many investors that live in Wall Street or big cities, they like Uber because they're using Uber all the time. You're using it for transportation. You're using Uber Eats.
In short: Paired with Uber as a "spectacular winner" — mostly insulated from AI disruption.
18:29I think Uber and DoorDash will be spectacular winners. I think that Shopify is a spectacular winner. I think that Airbnb will do really well. We even have companies that there's a bit more debate about companies like Spotify and Duolingo. They don't own proprietary data per se. Spotify just has access to music. Duolingo has access to AI curriculum and courses.
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