| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 109 | $55.99 | $6,103 | 0.25% | $63.80 | $-851 | -12.2% | — |
| HSA | 5 | $55.75 | $279 | 0.26% | $61.86 | $-31 | -9.9% | — |
| Total | 114 | $6,382 | 0.14% | $-881 | -12.1% | — |
In short: "We are rating EQT a Strong BUY." One of "our favorite Buy-list names despite (or, perhaps, because) its share price has gone south": marked $50.18 vs lots at $64.96 (−22.75%) and $57.00 (−11.96%). It broke out in 2024 and ran ~30%, "right up until around the time we gave it our seal of approval… Since then it's been… all downhill." "Call us obstinate… we are sticking to our bullish guns." Valuation: P/E 12.4, "about a 40% discount to the S&P. For a company with superior growth prospects, that strikes us as silly-cheap." The simple case: the largest US natural-gas producer ("ahead of even Exxon and Chevron"); US gas demand "roaring" from data centers and LNG exports; US gas "a fraction" of world prices (~$3/MMBtu vs >$20 in Asia and Europe); a "vast and extremely valuable" gathering and transmission network. "Among the best AI plays" for those averse to "lofty prices": ~50 GW of gas plants under construction or planned makes $3 gas "hard to believe." Catalyst: Japan's ~18 GW of committed US gas generation, including a 9.2 GW Portsmouth, Ohio project (the largest US gas plant ever), mostly "in, or close to, EQT's production and transmission footprint." The market's "apathy" won't "continue indefinitely."
EQT is the biggest natural-gas producer in the United States, mostly in the Appalachian region (Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia), and it also owns pipelines that gather and move the gas. Haymaker bought it in March and April at $57–$65, and it has since fallen to about $50. The house admits the stock went down almost as soon as it recommended it, and says it is sticking with it anyway.
The argument is simple. The shares trade at about 12 times expected earnings, roughly 40% cheaper than the average S&P 500 stock, even though demand for American gas is rising fast from AI data centers (many of which will run on gas-fired power) and from gas shipped overseas as LNG. US gas costs about $3 per unit versus more than $20 in Europe and Asia, so Haymaker thinks US prices have room to rise. With about 50 gigawatts of new gas power plants being planned, plus a Japanese-funded buildout that includes a record 9.2 gigawatt plant in Ohio near EQT's operations, it sees EQT as a cheaper way to benefit from AI than the expensive tech stocks. The rating is Strong Buy. The risk is that the market keeps ignoring the story for a while, and it already has for months.
In short: Fuel layer, natural gas: one of the larger US gas producers "up in the Marcellus" — a name that "could potentially fit" PWRX.
EQT is one of America's largest natural-gas producers, drilling the Marcellus shale in Appalachia. Natural gas is the main fuel for new power plants, so the company that pulls the gas out of the ground sits at the very start of the power chain — Sanghani names it as a fuel-layer fit for PWRX.
9:17So, I'll just go section by section, just moving down the value chain. First and foremost, fuel. Fuel comes in predominantly two sources: it's natural gas and it's nuclear. And so within that, if you think of some of the larger natural gas producers here in the United States, you've got EQT up in the Marcellus.
In short: Cited as one of the "great operators" under WhiteHawk's Marcellus/Utica royalty acreage.
36:21Great operators like EQT. Then they started buying in the Haynesville which is in East Texas and can actually get a lot of that gas down into the Gulf for export capacity. So we have an upward view on gas. We also think that the basis, so the discount of Marcellus and Haynesville gas relative to Henry Hub, could improve, whether that's getting that down for LNG export or taking some of that gas and then using it for in-basin power distribution for these power plants.
In short: Natural-gas leg of the physical-buildout cluster — the fuel side of the AI power trade, bought alongside CEG, BE and GEV as the capex cycle spills into power.
In short: Asked to choose between EQT and Range: "I own EQT because there is less of an oversupply in the Marcellus where they operate than there is in the Midcontinent or in Texas where the others operate." Framed against his call that underinvestment "will" — not "could" — produce a gas shortfall by 2029–30 absent a depression.
EQT produces natural gas from the Marcellus shale in Appalachia. Asked to pick between it and rivals elsewhere, Rick's reasoning is purely about local supply and demand: "there is less of an oversupply in the Marcellus where they operate than there is in the Midcontinent or in Texas where the others operate." Gas is expensive to move, so regional gluts are real and persistent.
The longer-term frame is his underinvestment call. Asked whether years of underspending could cause a gas shortfall by 2029–30, he upgrades the verb: absent a depression or an ugly global recession, "rather than could, I would suggest that the word is will."
44:45Okay. And of the US producers EQT and Range Resources, which one do you think is most positioned to benefit? I own EQT because there is less of an oversupply in the Marcellus where they operate than there is in the Midcontinent or in Texas where the others operate.
In short: "Another name in US natural gas — and I know our old mutual friend Porter Stansberry has liked this company — EQT up in the Northeast, transporting gas from the northeast which never had any, to the northeast where they've always used some. Now they have it… taking gas from Ohio to Ohio, from Pennsylvania to Pennsylvania, or if you're really really really fancy, Pennsylvania to Massachusetts. Nice business. It's going to be a much better business 5 years from now."
EQT produces gas from the Marcellus shale in Appalachia. The business Rick describes is almost a geography joke: gas from a region "which never had any" being sold into a region "where they've always used some" — Ohio to Ohio, Pennsylvania to Pennsylvania, "or if you're really really really fancy, Pennsylvania to Massachusetts."
The point behind the joke is transport. Gas is expensive to move and New England has long paid high prices for gas piped or shipped from far away. Sitting on the supply next door to that demand is a structurally advantaged position, and it improves as export and domestic-use infrastructure absorbs today's US oversupply: "it's going to be a much better business 5 years from now." (He notes Porter Stansberry has liked the name too.)
33:26They had interfingered leases which makes them much more efficient. You can drill three-mile laterals as opposed to one-mile laterals. Another name in US natural gas — and I know our old mutual friend Porter Stansberry has liked this company — EQT up in the Northeast, transporting gas from the northeast which never had any, to the northeast where they've always used some. Now they have it.
In short: ★ Today's rating change — upgraded to Strong Buy (SB) on both lots (03/20/2026 @ $64.96, −17.75%; 04/20/26 @ $57.00, −6.26%; marked $53.43). America's largest vertically-integrated Appalachian gas producer — unhedged for 2026, "a pure, unlevered call option on the current gas price environment" — gets its highest rating after an ~18% drawdown from the March pick, the same buy-it-lower discipline applied to BOLSY this week.
EQT is America's biggest natural-gas producer in Appalachia, and it deliberately hasn't locked in ("hedged") the price it gets for its 2026 gas — so every dollar the gas price rises drops almost straight to its cash flow. That makes it, in Hay's phrase, a pure bet on the gas price. He first recommended it in March; the stock has since fallen roughly 18%, and rather than back away he has now raised both of his lots to Strong Buy. The logic is the standing one: US gas sells for a fraction of what the rest of the world pays, and AI data centres plus new export terminals are lining up to soak up the surplus.
In short: The other gas-alpha name — "Equitable, the key player in the US Northeast in the Marcellus, the best place to meet supply and demand because there's plenty of both up there."
EQT ("Equitable" in the transcript) is the other gas-alpha name: the dominant producer in the Marcellus shale of the US Northeast — which Rick calls "the best place to meet supply and demand because there's plenty of both up there." Same thesis as Devon — a winner as the US gas glut clears.
44:15If you want alpha, depending on how you define alpha, I suspect that in the US the US gas glut goes away in two two and a half years. gas players include Devon which recently completed a merger with Cotera becoming the largest independent gas producer in the United States and Equitable which is the key player in the US Northeast in the Marcellus, the best place to meet supply and demand because there's plenty of both up there.
In short: Cited as evidence of the complacency: "nobody is investing in gas — in fact EQT is shutting in natural gas right now because they think it'll be more valuable later." A mature-portfolio Appalachian producer (grouped with Expand) whose low replacement cost he flags.
21:04The market has been focused on understanding the power shortage and trying to solve that and — generators — generation generally, power generation which could be solar and batteries, wind, nuclear whether large scale or small modular reactors SMRs, or natural gas. Natural gas is well supplied today 26 and 27 and the result is that nobody is investing in gas. In fact EQT is shutting in natural gas right now because they think it'll be more valuable later.
In short: One of the two large-cap pure-play dry-gas names that "rise to the top" for the gas→power→AI thesis. Newfound capital discipline among Appalachia/Haynesville producers finally allows a reasonable through-cycle return on gas.
EQT is one of America's biggest pure natural-gas producers. The investment idea is simple: electricity demand in the US is finally growing again (3–4% a year, driven by AI data centers), and the fastest way to make more power right now is to burn more natural gas. So owning a clean, gas-only producer is a direct bet on rising gas demand.
For years gas drillers destroyed money chasing growth. Now they've been forced into discipline — spending less, returning cash to shareholders — which finally lets a company like EQT earn a decent profit through the ups and downs of the price cycle. It's one of two large pure-play gas names he says "rise to the top."
35:32— So in your coverage of the E&Ps, who benefits the most here? Give me one that's dominantly gas, as pure play as possible. And so within that large cap space, you end up with two that kind of rise to the top, EQT and EXE are the tickers. So EQT Energy and EXE, EXPAN Energy. They're both drillers and producers. EXPAN Energy produces more gas in the US than anybody, more than Exxon, Chevron and the like. And EQT is one notch, two notches behind. So these are dedicated dry gas.
In short: Pick of the Week — America's largest, vertically-integrated Appalachian gas producer, entirely unhedged for 2026 so every dollar of gas price falls straight to FCF: "a pure, unlevered call option on the current gas price environment," just as the Hormuz crisis + Qatar LNG force majeure made demand "urgent in 13 days." Clean Q4 (adj EPS $0.90 vs $0.73, +22.7%; FY net income $2.04B from $231M; FY FCF $2.5B), 2026 FCF guide $3.3B (~8% yield, set at lower strip), net debt $9.1→$7.7B → ~$4.7B YE26 (deleveraging unlocks the multiple). ~12–13× fwd FCF; consensus median $65 / to $80 on $5 gas; 34-analyst Strong Buy; broke out above all prior resistance (eclipsed the 2014 ATH). Buy a smaller initial position post run-up, add on weakness.
EQT is the biggest natural-gas producer in the United States, drilling in the Appalachian gas fields of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. The heart of Haymaker's pitch is that EQT has chosen not to lock in (hedge) the price it sells its gas for in 2026 — so if gas prices rise, essentially all of that extra money flows straight to the company's cash flow. That makes the stock behave like a leveraged bet ("a call option") on rising gas prices. And prices are rising fast: the Middle East conflict has choked off oil supply and Qatar has declared it can't deliver its contracted liquefied natural gas (LNG), so Europe and Asia are scrambling for alternatives — and U.S. Appalachian gas is the obvious replacement.
Underneath the gas-price bet is a quietly improving business. EQT just posted a big earnings beat, generates billions in free cash, and is rapidly paying down debt (from $9.1 billion to a targeted ~$4.7 billion in two years) — and as debt shrinks, more of the company's value belongs to shareholders. It trades cheaply (~12–13× cash flow), pays a growing dividend, and the chart has broken above every prior high going back over a decade — a signal Haymaker treats as very bullish. Two other gas/energy names they already like, Range Resources and Devon Energy, are doing the same. The obvious risk is that the Middle East calms down quickly and gas prices fall back, which would hurt the unhedged bet — so Haymaker suggests starting with a smaller position and adding on any dip. Longer term, they argue LNG exports and AI data-center power demand put a floor under gas.
In short: On the natgas screen but caveated: "EQT but they hedge a lot" — heavy hedging blunts the upside to a gas-price spike vs Antero's lightly-hedged profile. A name to look at, not a lead pick.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.