In short: Example of a miner improving its jurisdiction profile — shifting from South Africa and Ghana toward Australia and new growth in Canada: "I think the market rewards that."
14:04Of course they had other specific issues but I think that is core to the argument and maybe another example is Gold Fields. They are changing their profile. They used to be much more heavy in South Africa and Ghana; now they are much more exposed to Australia and even a new growth in Canada.
In short: The second of only two majors he can name without a five-year depletion problem — "Agnico and Gold Fields. The rest of them have some challenges." None of the majors, in his reading, "have been making sufficient sustaining capital investment."
Gold Fields is the second half of a two-name list. Asked which major gold miners can cover the next five years of production out of ore they have already proved up, Rick names Agnico — then immediately corrects himself: "Agnico and Gold Fields. The rest of them have some challenges."
That is not a valuation call and he doesn't make one here. It is a statement about inventory: in a sector where two decades of underspending on finding and defining new ore is now coming due, the companies that don't have to buy their way out of the problem are worth separating from the ones that do — because the ones that do are about to become buyers, at prices set by an auction.
25:47Agnico and Gold Fields. The rest of them have some challenges. They've got some mid-range development projects. I think assuming that Barrick and Newmont can work out their differences and Fourmile gets added back into the Northern Nevada pipeline that for 5 years eliminates the challenges in front of Newmont and Barrick.
In short: Ranks it a 4 because the production profile is "so bullish" — a major that's done a reasonably good job on both sustaining capital and new-project investment; he expects substantially higher production and profitability 2 years out. Disclosed he does not own it (unlike Agnico and Franco).
Gold Fields is a large gold producer Rule grades a 4 purely on the numbers — he expects it to be pumping out a lot more gold, a lot more profitably, two years from now, and it's spent sensibly both maintaining existing mines and building new ones. He's transparent that he doesn't personally own it (unlike Agnico and Franco), so this is an analytical call, not a position he's talking up.
14:09So, kind of a similar pattern here. You had a top at around 61, fell down 46% from the peak to the bottom. And now it's trading at a 33% discount at where it was at the peak here back in January. What do you think about Gold Fields? — I have Gold Fields as a four, although I must admit I do not own it. I have Gold Fields as a four because their production profile is so bullish.
In short: Cited as a supply data point — its Salares Norte mine in Chile was one of the few capacity additions of the past two years, yet not enough to materially change constrained global gold supply.
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