In short: Referenced only — the earnings call he will read as a food-inflation gauge. "I'm going to be listening to General Mills' earnings call or at least reading the transcript to see how much they're raising food prices on packaged goods. There are two reasons why packaged good food companies are raising prices. Number one, because volumes are down due to GLP-1s, they have to make up for it and then two, energy price pass through."
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: The third staples name in the list. Belski: "Let's throw in Coca-Cola. Let's throw in General Mills… because at the end of the day, people are not eating those names." The exchange ends with him conceding he has never analysed the GLP-1 channel — "I haven't put a lot of thought in terms of what that means" — and Wapner noting the Lilly chart runs the other way.
General Mills, the packaged-food maker, is the third staples name in Belski's list and the point at which he concedes the argument is unresolved: "I haven't put a lot of thought in terms of what that means."
Wapner closes it with the test that would settle the question — put the Eli Lilly chart against these — and the implied answer is that it runs the other way. That is the shape of a real thesis: money moving out of the calories and into the drug that removes the appetite for them. Nobody on the desk has yet done the work.
In short: Staples he is avoiding: after Conagra's cut, "is General Mills and Campbell, are they next?" — an aristocrat-type yield that looks attractive but may not hold.
General Mills (Cheerios, Pillsbury, Blue Buffalo) has raised its dividend for a very long time and now offers a high yield. After Conagra's cut, D'Agnes openly asks whether General Mills could be next. He isn't predicting it, but it is the kind of "great American company" yield he is avoiding.
25:32— You know, is General Mills and Campbell, are they next? These, you know, that would be incredible. They, many of them are aristocrats. They've been growing their dividends forever and you would never think, you know, it could come to that. So yeah, so I think yield chasing probably most common. You know, another thing we all struggle with and some of our biggest mistakes over time just generally as investors is selling something too soon.
In short: Q4 revenue +1% to $4.6B ($10M beat), adj EPS $0.95 ($0.15 beat, up from $0.74); organic net sales flat (better than feared). GAAP net loss $2.01B on non-cash charges + a $1B Brazil-divestiture write-down. Shares jumped up to 10% (biggest intraday move since 2020, offsetting a 25% YTD decline). CEO Jeff Harmening called the price-investment work "behind us," pivoting to functional-nutrition premiumization (protein/fiber Cheerios) + Blue Buffalo fresh; $3B cost-savings target by FY30. But COO Dana McNabb signaled no consumer recovery in FY27 (buying on promotion, trading down on pack size); FY27 guide weak — organic −1.5% to +0.5%, adj EPS $3.00-3.20 (vs $3.12 consensus), inflation 4-5%. (Recap, not a stance call.)
General Mills makes Cheerios, Betty Crocker, Pillsbury, and Blue Buffalo pet food. For over a year it had been cutting prices to win back cost-conscious shoppers (a margin-sapping "reinvestment" phase), and the news here is that management declared that phase finished. The results beat expectations and the stock leapt as much as 10% — its biggest one-day jump since 2020 — mostly relief, since the shares had fallen 25% this year. There was a big accounting loss on paper ($2 billion), but that was non-cash charges plus a write-down on selling its Brazil business, not a cash problem.
Now the strategy pivots from cutting prices to "premiumizing" — adding protein and fiber to old brands like Cheerios and charging more for the healthier versions. The catch, stated plainly by the company's operating chief: don't expect the consumer to recover next year. Shoppers are still hunting for deals and buying smaller packs to save money, and the company guided to weak sales and lower profit for its FY27 (adjusted earnings of $3.00–3.20 a share, below the ~$3.12 analysts wanted), with 4–5% cost inflation. The question the article raises: can charging more for upgraded products actually lift sales volumes, or does it collide with the same penny-pinching shopper that forced the price cuts in the first place? A recap, not a call.
In short: Cited alongside Nike as a consumer name under pressure — illustrates the "discretionary hurt vs essentials supported" K-shaped split. Illustrative reference.
15:13that's tough though, look at Nike, look at General Mills, right? When you say do you
15:20want to get into the names or I can wait, describe the characteristics. I'll describe the characteristics. There are certain parts of the consumer market that are
In short: Same bombed-out-staples income play as CPB — owned for the dividend and, mainly, to write covered calls and cash-secured puts against a low-volatility name inside a tax-deferred account. An income sleeve, not an AIA Portfolio position.
General Mills (Cheerios, Betty Crocker, pet food) is the same idea as Campbell's — a bombed-out, decent-dividend staple bought mainly so he can sell options against it. Low volatility makes the covered-call and cash-secured-put income steadier; short expirations, rinse and repeat, all inside a tax-deferred account. An income sleeve, not an AIA Portfolio position.
In short: Staples are "the most offsides we've ever seen" vs the S&P — the Ozempic/structural-decline story is well-known and over-discounted; in a consumer weakening they do really well and the June-30 month-end rebalance flips the seesaw.
General Mills is a packaged-food staple. He lumps it with Kraft Heinz, ConAgra and Campbell's as names where the bearish story (Ozempic, people eating less packaged food) is fully known and over-discounted. Consumer staples are "the most offsides we've ever seen" versus the S&P; they do well when the consumer weakens, and the June-30 quarter-end rebalance plus an inflation bounce should flip the seesaw back in their favor for six months.
51:13Okay, you think like even, you don't think it's like, so take Kraft Heinz, take General Mills, take Campbell's, is like another structural change that just like everybody's on Ozempic and nobody eats these kind of packaged foods anymore? I hear you, and what happens in all bear markets is they come up with these — Wall Street comes up with these reasons to hate uranium stocks at the lows, right? Oh, Fukushima. Every single time there's value or an opportunity, the consensus of all the research
In short: #12, yield 5.5%. Cheerios, Nature Valley, Blue Buffalo, Betty Crocker. "They hold the #1 or #2 market share position in a staggering number of categories. This dominance gives them immense bargaining power with retailers." Trading "at a low valuation and high dividend yield relative to its history." The defence against private label is stated as a target: "heavily investing in product quality and 'newness' (targeting 25% of 2026 sales from new products) to prevent consumers from switching to generic store brands" — which is also an admission that the threat is live.
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