| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 117 | $145.40 | $17,012 | 0.69% | $134.29 | $1,300 | +8.3% | — |
| ROTH | 18 | $145.40 | $2,617 | 1.02% | $138.66 | $121 | +4.9% | — |
| Total | 135 | $19,629 | 0.44% | $1,421 | +7.8% | — |
In short: Positive with a stated entry discipline rather than a chase: "we'd look to buy it on a 5% pull-back." Re-recommended May 15 at $128.30, now ~$145 (+13% in under three months) — but Haymaker leads with the record, not the rally: "our first highlight of this name was in April 2024 at around the same upper-$120s price. In other words, it's been a 'meh' performer." The Aug-4 Q3 FY2026 print is "the first major data point since our second endorsement, and it delivered a clean thesis confirmation across every metric that matters": adj. EPS $1.84 +14% on >8% organic adjusted net revenue growth; adj. EBITDA $367M +17% with margin "expanding 109 basis points to 15.2%"; and "the headline that matters most: backlog reached a record $29 billion, up 27% year-over-year, with a trailing 12-month book-to-bill of 1.4 times on gross revenue." Plus a third consecutive guidance raise to $7.20-$7.30 ("nearly 19% YoY growth at the midpoint"), direct AI infrastructure at 11% of adjusted net revenue (+100bp sequentially), life sciences & advanced manufacturing +24% — "the strongest quarter the company has ever reported in that segment" — and net leverage 1.8×, clearing the sub-2.0× target "one quarter ahead of schedule." He books the miss honestly: "the honest assessment of Q3 is in-line rather than a clean beat" (EPS ~1.5% below the $1.87 consensus, adjusted net revenue 1.4% light). On price: "at $139, Jacobs trades at approximately 19x the $7.25 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint… in our view that's not expensive" for a $29B backlog growing 27% with "direct structural exposure to AI infrastructure, semiconductor fabrication, water, nuclear, defense, and energy security spending — the exact intersection of structural tailwinds that should be a solid growth-engine for the next decade." The restraint is tied to the house macro stance: "we'd be a bit reluctant to chase this one after the recent rally – particularly, given our broad market concerns." Closing: "once it catches its breath for a spell, it might be poised to make up for lost time."
Jacobs is an engineering and design firm — the people who plan and manage the building of data centres, semiconductor fabs, water systems, power plants and defence facilities. It doesn't pour the concrete; it designs the project and runs it, which is a higher-margin, less capital-hungry way to profit from a construction boom.
Hay is unusually blunt about his own record here. He first flagged it in April 2024 in the high $120s, re-recommended it in May 2026 at $128.30, and it is only now around $145. Two years, roughly flat, then a 13% move: "a 'meh' performer," in his words.
The August 4 results are why he still likes it. Profits per share rose 14%, cash profits rose 17%, and the margin improved — but the number he singles out is the backlog: $29 billion of work already won but not yet done, up 27% in a year. Alongside it sits a "book-to-bill" ratio of 1.4, which simply means that for every dollar of work Jacobs completed over the past year it signed $1.40 of new work. Both figures describe revenue that is largely already contracted, which is far better evidence about the next few years than one quarter's earnings. Management also raised its full-year forecast for the third quarter running, work directly tied to AI infrastructure is now 11% of revenue, the data-centre-and-semiconductor segment grew 24% (its best quarter ever), and debt came down faster than promised.
He doesn't oversell it: on the quarter itself, earnings actually came in about 1.5% below what analysts expected. His point is that the headline number was in line while the forward indicators were excellent.
At roughly 19 times this year's expected earnings he thinks the price is fair rather than cheap — reasonable for a company sitting at the intersection of AI build-out, chip manufacturing, water, nuclear, defence and energy security. But he won't chase it after the recent run, especially with his broader worries about the market, so the instruction is a patient one: buy it on a 5% pullback. His view is that once the stock pauses for a while, the backlog should let it make up for the years it went nowhere.
In short: Update — "a head-scratcher": its AI-data-center exposure is being used as a pretext for weakness, but Haymaker sees the build-out merely downshifting, not ending, and "no AI premium" in the price. At ~15× earnings / 1× sales (near its 5-yr bottom); FY26 guidance raised, AI infra pipeline +400% YoY, data-center business +100%. "Net/net, we'd dollar-cost-average into this name."
Jacobs is an engineering and consulting firm — a "picks and shovels" provider to big infrastructure and, increasingly, the AI data-center build-out. The stock has been hit because some investors fear the data-center boom is ending; Haymaker thinks it's merely slowing down, not stopping, and points out the price has no "AI premium" baked in at all. It trades around 15× earnings and just 1× sales — near its cheapest in five years — even though management raised guidance, its AI-infrastructure project pipeline is up 400% and its data-center work doubled. Their advice: buy it gradually over time (dollar-cost-average) rather than all at once.
In short: Pick of the Week (re-recommendation; first flagged Mar-2024, "a dud" since at ~the same ~$128). The post-Amentum-spin J is a focused infrastructure/advanced-facilities engineer with a wholly-owned PA Consulting (+15–16% rev). The case is the record backlog — $26.3B, +20.6% YoY, Q1 book-to-bill 2.0x, TTM 1.4x (~2yrs of contracted revenue), led by data centers/semis/life-sciences/water/transport. ~16.7× fwd EPS / ~14× EV/EBITDA / ~5–6.5% FCF yield vs E&C peers 20–25×; Goldman Buy $158, consensus ~$156 (~22% upside), Haymaker 21–22× FY27 EPS $8–8.50 → $168–187. Three insiders bought; 68% cost-reimbursable backlog. Patient 12–18-mo+ hold.
Jacobs is the engineering firm governments and big companies hire when a project is too complex or too important to give to an ordinary contractor — think water systems, nuclear plants, semiconductor fabs, AI data centers and coastal flood barriers. Haymaker first recommended it two years ago and it went nowhere ("a dud"), so this is a do-over. The reason to look again: the company is cleaner now (it spun off its messy government-services and cyber units in 2024 and fully bought its high-margin UK consulting arm, PA Consulting), and its order book is exploding. It has $26.3 billion of signed contracts — more than two years' worth of revenue — growing 21% a year, and winning $1.40 of new work for every $1 it books. Those orders are concentrated in exactly the things getting the most spending right now: AI data centers, chip plants, drug factories, and water.
The argument is that the stock is cheap for what's in that order book — about 17 times next year's earnings versus rivals at 20–25 times, with a ~5–6% free-cash-flow yield while profits grow 15%+. Two scary global stories actually help Jacobs: the AI spending boom needs someone to build the physical buildings, and the Middle East energy shock is pushing governments to fast-track nuclear, gas and water projects — J is already on many of them. The main risk is botching a giant project (its Hinkley Point nuclear job ran badly over budget), but most of its contracts are "cost-reimbursable," meaning the client absorbs overruns. Insiders (the CFO and two directors) have been buying their own stock — usually a good sign. This is a patient 12–18-month-plus hold, not a quick trade.
In short: The week's Equity Highlight (first written up April 2024) — a "picks and shovels" play on US reindustrialization and the hyperscaler/data-center capex boom. Record backlog >$23B (+14% YoY, 1.2x book-to-bill), FY26 guide adj. revenue +6–10% and EPS $6.90–7.60 (mid-teens growth), forward P/E ~17.7–19.6 (~25% below large-cap peers) despite a cleaner balance sheet; Value Line 90/100 earnings-predictability, ~$10 EPS by 2029 → ~$230 three-year target vs ~$135 today. Cost-plus discipline (avoids fixed-price turnkey work) vs peers that took write-downs; ~$1.1B returned (≈3% of shares retired), ~1.1% yield. A prime "run-it-hot" beneficiary.
Jacobs is an engineering and construction firm — the people who design and project-manage big physical things: public infrastructure, factories, water systems, and, increasingly, the giant data centers that house AI chips. Haymaker's pitch is that it's a boring "picks and shovels" way to profit from two huge spending waves — America re-building its industrial base, and the hyperscalers pouring money into data centers — without betting on any one chip or AI app. Someone has to design and engineer the buildings that power and cool the servers, and Jacobs is already doing that work.
Why now: it has a record order book (over $23B, growing 14%, with new orders outpacing what it's billing — a sign of future growth), and management expects per-share earnings of roughly $6.90–7.60 next year. The stock looks expensive on backward-looking earnings only because of one-time charges from exiting weak business lines; on next year's earnings it trades around 18× — about a quarter cheaper than rivals — and Haymaker sees it reaching ~$230 in three years from ~$135 today. A key quality marker: Jacobs deliberately avoids "fixed-price" contracts (where the builder eats any cost overrun — the kind of work that bankrupted competitors); it prefers "cost-plus" deals where the client covers actual costs plus a fee, so it stays profitable even when projects balloon. It also buys back stock and pays a small (~1.1%) dividend. In short: a cheap, well-run beneficiary of the reindustrialization and AI-infrastructure boom.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.