In short: Passing mention — its Braintree unit is listed as a Mastercard Agent Pay partner.
36:08Mastercard's agent pay introduces Agentic tokens built on existing tokenization. Pasi capabilities with partnerships spanning from Microsoft, IBM, Brainree, and Checkout.com. These are extensions of network roles. These companies are not trying to win the interface. They don't care. Visa Mastercard never really care about being the interface.
In short: Passing mention — Venmo cited as proof a dollar stablecoin is nothing new: "we already have a stablecoin, kind of sort of. It's called Venmo." No view on PayPal.
45:46The underlying asset needs to be as liquid as a stablecoin. So, I just don't see how they're going to go and create something else to go beat it. So, I think it's a good idea. And by the way, we already have a stablecoin, kind of sort of. It's called Venmo. So, we're not splitting the atom here to go to a government-backed stablecoin.
In short: The same range trade as last week, executed again, with a new bid rumour on top. "There's also a new bid for PayPal possible according to Betaville, which is an M&A blog." The history: PayPal "rallied about 40% from its unaffected price from the summer up to August. Then there were rumors that the Stripe deal failed. We didn't own it at that point. The shares sold off. We bought at 51, we sold at 55, and now they're back at 54.96. As you recall, closer to 50, we said we would buy shares and then sell them again, because we do think that there's a chance there could be another offer." The valuation floor is the reason the trade is repeatable: "the board had rejected the initial offer of 60 to 50 a share, which was 53 billion, as inadequate, signaling a price target closer to 70. We think that without a bid, shares should trade around 53, so there's not a lot of downside versus upside if there's a new bid. However, there is no proof of any new bid." The bidder map, with each candidate's obstacle named: PE consortiums (KKR, Blackstone, Silver Lake) — "interest rates are so high that doing such a large LBO would be quite difficult"; big tech (Alphabet, Amazon, Google) — "they're spending so much money on AI that this is likely not going to be a deal this year," though PayPal brings "400 million active payment accounts"; and the networks/banks (Visa, Mastercard, JPMorgan), "which have suffered a little bit on valuation due to AI… but we don't see any evidence of that." Cheap versus Adyen or Stripe; if no deal comes, the fallback is self-help — "operational restructuring, layoffs, larger share buybacks, some asset sales, carving out something like Venmo or Braintree to sell."
PayPal processes online payments and owns Venmo. Earlier this year Stripe was reportedly interested in buying it; those talks fell apart, and now an M&A blog says another bid may be circulating. Singh has stopped treating it as a company to own and started treating it as a price range to trade — he bought at $51, sold at $55, and it is back at $54.96.
The reason a range works is that both ends of it are anchored to something real. The floor: without any takeover, he thinks the shares are worth about $53 on the business alone, so buying near $50 means little can go wrong. The ceiling: the board already rejected an offer in the $50-60 range, valuing the company at $53 billion, as too low, and signalled it wants something nearer $70. So the downside is a couple of dollars and the upside, if a bid appears, is many.
He is honest that no bid is confirmed, and he walks through who could plausibly make one and why each probably will not right now: private-equity firms would need to borrow $50 billion-plus at today's interest rates; Google and Amazon are spending everything they have on artificial intelligence; the card networks and big banks would find it a natural fit but show no sign of interest. What PayPal would bring any of them is 400 million active payment accounts. And if nobody bids, the company can still improve its own value — cutting costs, buying back shares, or selling Venmo or Braintree separately.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: The bid died and the trade survived it. "Stripe was reportedly interested in PayPal. It said it is no longer interested after the board learned a higher bid." What is left is a value stock with a repeatable range: "we actually, after the deal fell apart, we bought some PayPal shares at 51.65, we sold them at 54.40. It closed in the $53 handle area; we'll buy back close to 50 again. This is one trade you could do several times." The valuation is the floor: "under eight times forward earnings… it has 7 billion of free cash flow… so it's a teen free cash flow yield… it trades at 8 to 9 times P/E, we think it should trade at 10," with a net cash balance sheet. The honest offset: "it is losing market share to competitors like Square, but it's still generating so much cash that it can effectively buy itself in less than 10 years." Q2 beat (revenue ~$8.68B vs $8.47B, adjusted EPS $1.38 vs consensus, branded checkout +2% FXN, Venmo +14%), "so we're not really worried about it having terrible earnings." He uploaded the full model to the SSR Q&A tab live on the call; the deck's own DCF marks it at $57 against a Street range of $70-85, "given terminal value and market share uncertainty." Caveat in his own words: "PayPal is not incredibly interesting here… but it would be interesting close to 50 again."
Stripe, the large private payments company, looked at buying PayPal and walked away. The takeover premium came out of the shares, and what is left is a cheap, cash-generating business that Singh treats as a range to trade rather than a company to own forever.
The numbers are the case. PayPal produces about $7 billion of surplus cash a year against a market value that puts it below eight times next year's expected earnings — a cash yield in the low teens. It holds more cash than debt. Singh's summary of what that means: it "is still generating so much cash that it can effectively buy itself in less than ten years." He thinks a fair multiple is ten times earnings rather than eight or nine.
The reason it is cheap rather than mispriced is genuine: PayPal is slowly losing checkout share to Block and others, so the business is not growing much. His own model — published live to subscribers during the call — values it at $57 a share against a Wall Street consensus range of $70-85, precisely because he discounts what the business is worth in the distant future given that share loss.
So the discipline is mechanical rather than visionary. He bought at $51.65 after the bid collapsed, sold at $54.40, and it closed near $53. "We'll buy back close to 50 again. This is one trade you could do several times." The value floor is what makes the repetition safe; the share loss is what stops it becoming a long-term holding. His own verdict on it at today's price is flat: "PayPal is not incredibly interesting here."
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: The single exception in Brown's otherwise blanket approval of financials: "I can't think of an area in financials I don't like other than payments, which got some weird PayPal-related — will there be consolidation or will there not? Away from that, I like the credit cards, the regional banks, the banking financials, anything even tangential to Wall Street, the asset managers, the money center banks, the brokers."
PayPal is the single exception to Josh Brown's blanket enthusiasm for financials. He likes credit cards, regional banks, money-center banks, asset managers, insurers and brokers — "I can't think of an area in financials I don't like other than payments, which got some weird PayPal-related, will there be consolidation or will there not?" Unresolved merger speculation leaves the stock trading on rumour rather than on the improving profitability driving the rest of the sector.
In short: Deiya — a published pass, and the host congratulates them on it. They liked the Braintree processing segment, where volumes "are growing like crazy" with scale economics to come; what killed it was branded checkout — the high-margin engine of the company — where "there's just a lot of vulnerability… it's hard to see the future growth." Liking the small unprofitable half and not the large profitable half meant the whole didn't work.
PayPal is really two businesses. Braintree is the invisible plumbing that processes card payments for other companies' checkouts — huge and fast-growing, but low margin. Branded checkout is the familiar yellow PayPal button, which is small in volume terms but where nearly all the profit comes from.
Pernas looked hard and passed, and the shape of the pass is the lesson: they liked the half that wasn't making money and distrusted the half that was. Braintree's volumes are growing "like crazy" with real scale economics still ahead of it. But branded checkout is exposed — the reason people used to click the PayPal button is being eroded as one-click payment gets built into every phone, browser and platform, and "it's hard to see the future growth." When the profitable half is the vulnerable half, cheapness doesn't rescue the whole.
1:08:56They've got to be able to defend their moat. Yeah that would be my only take there. We did stay away from PayPal. We actually like Brainree. We like their processing segment. What we didn't like was their branded payments. — Really? Okay. So you didn't like the part of PayPal that was making the most money.
In short: The $60 question. Q2 revenue +5% Y/Y to $8.7B ($230M beat) and adjusted EPS −1% to $1.38 ($0.10 beat), with TPV +9% to $486B. Earlier in July, Stripe and private-equity firm Advent bid roughly $60 a share, valuing PayPal above $53B — which the board reportedly saw as undervaluing the company, after shares had rallied about 35% over the prior month, the best on record. On the deal, Lores said only that the board would "carefully consider" any path that creates superior value while insisting the standalone plan is the focus. PayPal lifted FY26 adjusted EPS to ~$5.38 (vs $5.31 consensus) and full-year transaction margin dollars to ~$15.6B, tying the raise to execution. Underneath, the operating story is steadier than the drama: Braintree volume accelerated to 13%, a ninth straight quarter of profitable growth, and Venmo is being pushed from peer-to-peer toward a money-management platform; branded checkout TPV growth held at 2%, the same as Q1; free cash flow $1.8B funded $1.5B of buybacks with share count down 10% Y/Y; transaction margin dollars +1% to $3.9B and the $1.5B savings program pacing toward $400M this year. Q3 EPS is expected to decline low-single-digit. "The real question is whether Lores's raised guidance is a genuine turnaround signal or a negotiating stance, and the next move belongs to Stripe." (Recap, not a stance call.)
PayPal is in play. In July, Stripe (a private payments company) teamed with private-equity firm Advent to bid about $60 a share, valuing PayPal above $53 billion — and the board reportedly thinks that undervalues it, which is a meaningful judgement given the shares had already run up 35% in a month. Management would only say it will "carefully consider" any path that creates superior value. Underneath the drama the business is steadier than the headlines: Braintree, the behind-the-scenes processing arm, grew 13% for a ninth straight profitable quarter, cash flow funded $1.5 billion of buybacks, and PayPal raised its full-year profit forecast. The weak spot is the part everyone recognises — the branded PayPal checkout button — still growing only 2%. The genuinely unanswerable question is whether that raised forecast is a real turnaround signal or a negotiating position. A recap, not a call.
In short: "PayPal reported numbers that once again show the problems plaguing the payment sector." EPS $1.38, −1%; revenue +3%; both beat expectations — "but so what? The results are still very sluggish." The news: a $60 buyout from Stripe and Advent that management calls too low. "I hate it when managements play chicken. PayPal's business is under assault from large players like Apple and Google. The company should sell."
PayPal processes online payments. The quarter technically beat expectations — profits down 1%, revenue up 3% — and he dismisses it in three words: "but so what?" A business growing 3% while Visa's payment volume grows 10% is losing ground, which is his running point about payments: outside Visa and Mastercard it is a brutal, moat-less industry.
The live event is a takeover bid: Stripe and the buyout firm Advent have offered $60 a share, and PayPal's board says that's too low. Eisman's reaction is a governance judgement, not a valuation one: "I hate it when managements play chicken. PayPal's business is under assault from large players like Apple and Google. The company should sell." A board holding out for a better price is making a bet that the business will be worth more later — and here he thinks the trend runs the other way.
12:28So, if the AI story keeps going, I would expect Bloom stock to continue to perform. But again, the AI story has to keep going. PayPal company reported numbers that once again show the problems plaguing the payment sector. EPS of $138 was down 1% versus last year revenue was up 3%. Both earnings and revenue were better than expected.
In short: +20% Wed on a Stripe + Advent (PE) all-cash bid of ~$60/share (28% premium; $53B / ~8× fwd EBITDA — cheap). PayPal generates ~$6B FCF next year = a ~10% yield to the deal terms, and 8× EBITDA is ~1-1.5× below its 3-yr average — "there could be a topping bid... mid-60s." (All-cash, so it delists PayPal, not a Stripe back-door IPO.)
PayPal jumped 20% because Stripe (the big private payments company) teamed up with private-equity firm Advent to bid about $60 a share in cash — a 28% premium. Singh's point is the price is cheap: PayPal throws off about $6 billion of free cash a year, so at $60 the buyers are getting a ~10% cash-flow yield, and the ~8× earnings multiple is below what PayPal has averaged. When a bid is this cheap, other bidders often jump in — so he expects a "topping bid" that pushes the price into the mid-$60s. Because it's all cash, the buyers would take PayPal private (not use it as a backdoor way to list Stripe).
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: The secondary story: Reuters reports Stripe and PE firm Advent International have offered $60.50/share — more than $53B, backed by ~$50B of committed financing — in an unsolicited bid. PayPal hasn't formally responded but has been working with Goldman Sachs and Evercore on strategic options including a sale or breakup: "not necessarily looking for a buyer, but willing to consider what one might pay." What the buyers get: 439 million active accounts, ~$1.8 trillion of annual payment volume, Venmo, Braintree, and PayPal's stablecoin/crypto assets. What the price implies: ~$5.6B of reported FCF last year ($6.4B adjusted) puts the deal near 8x adjusted free cash flow before debt and financing costs. Is it enough? The stock traded above $78 a year ago and the two-sided network would be near-impossible to recreate; Michael Burry, a holder, has called the offer too low, and "Stripe and Advent would not be offering $53 billion unless they believed PayPal could ultimately be worth substantially more." Bottom line: PayPal became vulnerable because investors stopped believing in the turnaround; the first offer may establish only that the company is in play, not the price that gets it sold. (Analysis, not a stance call.)
PayPal may be about to be taken over. Stripe (a private payments company) and Advent International (a private-equity firm — an investor that buys whole companies, usually with borrowed money, fixes them away from the stock market, then sells or re-lists them) have jointly offered $60.50 a share, valuing PayPal above $53 billion, with about $50 billion of financing already lined up. It's "unsolicited," meaning PayPal didn't ask — though it had already hired two investment banks to weigh a sale or a breakup, so it is at least listening.
What makes PayPal worth buying is the network nobody could rebuild from scratch: 439 million active accounts, about $1.8 trillion of payments flowing through it each year, and Venmo. What makes it cheap is that investors gave up on management's turnaround. At $53 billion the buyers are paying roughly eight times the cash the business throws off each year — a low price for something this durable, which is exactly the setup private equity hunts for.
Is the offer enough? The shares fetched more than $78 only a year ago, and Michael Burry — an investor who owns the stock — says the bid lowballs it. The article's more careful version of the same point: nobody writes a $53 billion cheque unless they think the thing is worth considerably more. So the likely read is that this first bid mainly establishes that PayPal is for sale, not the price it eventually sells for. Analysis, not a recommendation.
In short: Down 6% in Q2 in the payments rout he says to avoid.
14:33Fiserv was down 14%. As its CEO resigned to become the CEO of Truist, PayPal was down 6%. Just about every payment stock was down for the second quarter. Also, as Bitcoin and other digital currencies have corrected, financial companies devoted to the space suffered. Coinbase, for example, was down 14% for the quarter.
In short: Cole — reference. The formerly "more exciting" spin-out that eBay (which they own) has actually outperformed — an example of the boring, better-capital-structure name beating the glamour one.
17:11So, use this environment right now. The SAS world, right? Software as a service, just to describe that for all the listeners is um, you know, and when I say software as a service, just to put some names out there, it's the it's the workdays of the world. It's it's, you know, um, uh, it's Salesforce, it's Service Now, it's all those kind of businesses.
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