In short: ★ Today's rating change — upgraded to Strong Buy (SB) (lot 04/09/2026 @ $5.20, marked $3.81, −26.73%) — the deepest drawdown on the Buy List gets the top rating, hardening the July-20/24 "time is of the essence" adds. The trapped-LNG substitution thesis (Indonesian export cuts into an Asian LNG shortage) is unchanged; the table simply raises the conviction.
Yancoal mines thermal coal in Australia — the kind burned in power stations. It has been Haymaker's worst recent call, down about 27% from where he bought it. He is not retreating: this week it is upgraded to Strong Buy, the deepest loser on his buy list getting his highest rating. The bet is a substitution one. Power plants across Asia can burn either coal or liquefied natural gas (LNG); with LNG shipments still snarled in the Persian Gulf and Indonesia — the largest coal exporter — cutting shipments, buyers have to fall back on coal, which should lift its price. He has said repeatedly that "time is of the essence" on adding here.
In short: Half of the Monday buy alert on "two Australian coal companies" (the fuller write-up landing the next day). Look at "that pounding that it's had this year, like so many commodities" — that "created a big opportunity." Both names had already "popped a little bit… about four or 5%" since publication. Credit to Trader Ferg, "really bullish on these coal companies."
Yancoal is a large Australian coal miner, and it is one of the two names Haymaker put out a buy alert on the Monday before this interview. Coal is deeply unfashionable, which is a large part of why it's cheap: Yancoal has been beaten down hard all year along with the rest of the commodity complex.
The reason to own it now is substitution. Most of Asia burns coal to make electricity, and its alternative — imported LNG — is exactly what Middle East hostilities are choking off. When gas gets scarce and expensive, power stations burn more coal, so coal prices rise. On top of that, Indonesia (the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, the kind used for electricity) is sharply cutting exports to keep supply at home.
He frames the whole group the same way: "the whole complex got sold off very very hard and I think created just a tremendous buying opportunity." He credits the Australia-based analyst Trader Ferg with the work behind the call.
37:32I actually gave just a blurb of recommendation on these two on Monday because I was concerned they would start moving given what was going on in the M East so we can have the more detailed write up tomorrow but because I think they're both up about four or 5% or maybe so not a ton. New Hope has been holding up much better.
In short: The week's featured buy-up (with NHPEF). Since the original write-up it "has been a dud" — "not surprising considering the group's recent weakness as reflected by HCC and, especially, BTU." This week it popped about 10% and is "now up to $4.25." Haymaker's call: "at Yancoal's ultra-depressed current price we believed it deserves to be bought or, if you did so on our original write-up, re-bought" — "we like both of them… a lot." On the valuation charts YACAF "is obviously trading much cheaper than NHPEF" ("often the way they roll"), and both look cheaper than the five-year P/S and P/E charts imply once the 2022 post-Ukraine revenue spike-and-retreat is stripped out. Driver: escalating Middle East threat to LNG shipments to Asia, with thermal coal "about as inexpensive as it has ever been relative to LNG" and LNG "once again ripping." Advocates dollar-cost-averaging in. A Haymaker Buy-list holding.
Yancoal digs up coal in Australia and ships most of it to Asia. The kind it mostly sells is "thermal" coal — the sort burned in power stations to make electricity — which matters because the direct competitor for that job is liquefied natural gas (LNG). When LNG is scarce or expensive, power plants in China, India and Japan burn more coal instead, and coal prices follow LNG up. That substitution is the entire bet here.
The stock has been a disappointment since Haymaker first wrote it up — it fell hard when investors decided the Middle East had calmed down and LNG tankers would flow freely again. Hay never believed that, and the shipping data now backs him: cargo movements out of the Persian Gulf "have once again fallen off a cliff." Meanwhile coal is about as cheap as it has ever been compared with LNG, Europe and China are having a hot summer, India is importing more coal every year, and Indonesia — the world's biggest coal exporter — is deliberately shipping less. Yancoal bounced roughly 10% this week to about $4.25, and Hay thinks that's the beginning, not the end: buy it if you don't own it, buy it again if you bought higher, and add gradually rather than all at once (that's what "dollar-cost-averaging" means — spreading purchases over time so a further dip helps you instead of hurting you). He notes it's the cheaper of his two coal names on the standard value yardsticks, and cheaper still once you ignore the freak 2022 revenue spike that makes the five-year charts look misleading. He also likes that almost nobody else wants to own coal — the same lonely position he took on oil in late June, which then worked.
In short: The "anti-QuinStreet" — a recent coal pick that's down. Yancoal has been "particularly pummeled," tumbling 23%. Haymaker blames "misguided optimism about the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz" (which had the market assume softer thermal-coal demand, since coal "often competes directly with LNG"); with LNG "once again trapped in the Persian Gulf" and bullish Indonesia (top thermal-coal exporter) supply news, the case is strengthening. Urges adding now — "time is of the essence" — for those who bought higher. Full story in Friday's POW!
Yancoal is an Australian coal miner Haymaker recommended earlier; it's fallen 23% and is the "anti-QuinStreet" — a loser so far. The reason, Hay argues, is a misunderstanding: investors assumed the Strait of Hormuz (a key oil/gas shipping chokepoint) would reopen, which would flood the market with liquefied natural gas (LNG) and reduce the need for coal, since power plants can burn either one. But the strait's troubles are keeping LNG "trapped in the Persian Gulf," so buyers actually need more coal as a substitute — and supply news from Indonesia, the biggest thermal-coal exporter, is bullish for prices too. His message: this is a chance to buy more while it's cheap, and "time is of the essence." The full write-up comes Friday.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.