Callum Thomas — research hub

Founder of Topdown Charts & author of The Chart Storm — chart-driven macro, market-sentiment and asset-allocation analysis (heavy on the S&P 500, valuations and positioning), with a running synthesis and per-appearance breakdowns.

Sections: stock index · overall thesis · the product · appearances. Last updated 2026-JUN-21.

Stock & name index

▲ Positive

Ticker	Name	Current thesis	Research	Seen in	Total $k
IEMG	iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	EM bullish reiterated: strong even ex-Taiwan/Korea, in local-currency terms, and boosted by SK/TW AI — IEMG (incl. Korea) has >2× VWO's YTD, the AI-stock impact for EM.	QT · SA · STK	2026-MAY-31	—
IGV	iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF	Software, the sector "AI was supposed to kill," gone from slow recovery to sharp and surging (+6.25% Friday) — under-the-radar opportunity outside the AI spotlight and a risk barometer.	QT · SA · STK	2026-MAY-31	—
IWM	iShares Russell 2000 ETF (small caps)	Small caps: +70% off the 2025 low and weekly-overbought, but possibly only mid-run (the 2020-21 advance ran ~+150%) — an overlooked corner versus the mega-caps.	QT · SA · STK	2026-JUN-14 · 2026-MAY-31	—
RSP	Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF	Equal-weighted S&P 500 — fresh all-time highs Friday, a broadening-bull signal confirming participation beyond the mega-caps (alongside the bullish breadth divergence).	QT · SA · STK	2026-JUN-14	—
SPCX	SpaceX (newly listed)	SpaceX, newly listed (+19.22% debut pop) — Thomas reads the IPO as "the birthing of a new sector" (US space ~0.2%→~3% of market cap overnight) and longer-term bullish for space stocks as a whole.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-JUN-14	—
VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF	The Korea-excluding EM ETF, paired with IEMG to isolate the AI contribution (~half IEMG's YTD); part of the reiterated-bullish EM call (strong ex-TW/SK and in local currency).	QT · SA · STK	2026-MAY-31	—

► Neutral / referenced

Ticker	Name	Current thesis	Research	Seen in	Total $k
ASTS	AST SpaceMobile	AST SpaceMobile — a space-stock-index component (index -32% avg from the 28-May peak); post-SpaceX-IPO buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact / proxy-rotation casualty. Sector longer-term bullish.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-JUN-14	—
BKSY	BlackSky Technology	BlackSky Technology — a space-stock-index component (index -32% avg from the 28-May peak); post-SpaceX-IPO buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact / proxy-rotation casualty. Sector longer-term bullish.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-JUN-14	—
BTC	Bitcoin	A less-convincing risk barometer alongside software — track speculative risk appetite, not a conviction call, per Thomas (Chart Storm), 2026-MAY-31.	QT · STK	2026-MAY-31	—
FLY	Firefly Aerospace	Firefly Aerospace — a space-stock-index component (index -32% avg from the 28-May peak); post-SpaceX-IPO buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact / proxy-rotation casualty. Sector longer-term bullish.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-JUN-14	—
LUNR	Intuitive Machines	Intuitive Machines — a space-stock-index component (index -32% avg from the 28-May peak); post-SpaceX-IPO buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact / proxy-rotation casualty. Sector longer-term bullish.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-JUN-14	—
PL	Planet Labs	Planet Labs — a space-stock-index component (index -32% avg from the 28-May peak); post-SpaceX-IPO buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact / proxy-rotation casualty. Sector longer-term bullish.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-JUN-14	0.7
RDW	Redwire	Redwire — a space-stock-index component (index -32% avg from the 28-May peak); post-SpaceX-IPO buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact / proxy-rotation casualty. Sector longer-term bullish.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-JUN-14	—
RKLB	Rocket Lab USA	Rocket Lab — a component of Thomas's equal-weighted space-stock index (down ~32% avg from the 28-May peak); caught in post-SpaceX-IPO buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact / proxy rotation. Sector longer-term bullish.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-JUN-14	—
SATS	EchoStar	EchoStar — a space-stock-index component (index -32% avg from the 28-May peak); post-SpaceX-IPO buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact / proxy-rotation casualty. Sector longer-term bullish.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-JUN-14	—
SPIR	Spire Global	Spire Global — a space-stock-index component (index -32% avg from the 28-May peak); post-SpaceX-IPO buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact / proxy-rotation casualty. Sector longer-term bullish.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-JUN-14	—
VOYG	Voyager Technologies	Voyager Technologies — a space-stock-index component (index -32% avg from the 28-May peak); post-SpaceX-IPO buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact / proxy-rotation casualty. Sector longer-term bullish.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-JUN-14	—

▼ Negative

Ticker	Name	Current thesis	Research	Seen in	Total $k

Overall thesis

In one line: Chart-driven, top-down macro analyst who reads market internals — sentiment, valuations and positioning for the S&P 500 and asset allocation; his recurring tell is reading sell-side estimate aggregates as contrarian sentiment gauges (fade euphoric all-time highs, lean in at capitulation).

Sentiment over forecast. Thomas's signature move is to take a sell-side consensus aggregate (e.g. consensus 3–5-year S&P 500 earnings-growth expectations) and treat it as "Wall Street analyst sentiment" rather than a forecast — a gauge that mixes "truth and emotion" and is most informative at its extremes.
Read the extremes contrarily. In booms, estimates overshoot even the best fundamentals (euphoria, new-paradigm narratives); in busts they undershoot even the worst downturns. So all-time highs in optimism are a caution flag and capitulation troughs an opportunity.
Top-down, multi-leg. The estimate-sentiment read is one leg of a broader chart-driven toolkit — cross-checked against valuations and positioning before drawing an allocation conclusion, re-run on a weekly cadence.
Broadening & rotation watch. Beyond the euphoria flags, he tracks market internals for participation: a bullish breadth divergence (index lower low vs higher low on the 50dma-breadth gauge) to call a sell-off's end, plus equal-weight (RSP) and small-caps (IWM) at new highs and turning up versus Mag-7 as confirmation that the bull is broadening — a rotation setup where "valuations and technicals align" (bigs expensive, small caps cheap).
Current read (2026-JUN-21): continued bull-market-broadening and bullish rotation — Mag-7 has been floundering while the "S&P 493" (S&P 500 ex-Mag-7) makes new all-time highs and the equal-weight-vs-cap-weight relative line attempts a (double?) bottom; he frames Mag-7's relative collapse as bullish rotation (leaders passing the torch to laggards), "the most bullish pathway right now," with industrials breaking out as a real-activity confirmer. But he stacks late-cycle warning flags: valuations are high because profitability (ROE) is high — and ROE is cyclical, so an AI-capex bust/downturn could remove the justification (none yet); investor cash allocations are bouncing along the bottom; margin debt vs M2 is the 4th-fastest expansion in recent history (downside-risk alert, though the prior 3 topping signals took months); and seasonality sours late-July→Oct/Nov. The bear case is that Mag-7 underperformance "turns into something sinister" (bearish rotation that drags the index). A Portfolio-Strategy note — "Treasuries are NOT Trash" — flags record-low investor treasury allocations: bonds fail in inflation shocks but win in deflationary downturns, so gradually build bond exposure by trimming risk (an AI-capex bust + AI-deflation a potential tailwind). (Prior, 2026-JUN-14: short-sharp sell-off "looks to have run its course," RSP/small caps at new highs, SpaceX IPO "births a new Space Sector.")

The product

Grounded in the archived 2026-JUN-11 Chart Storm post; kept deliberately light.

What it is: Chart Storm (chartstorm.info) is Callum Thomas's chart-driven market newsletter — the publishing arm of his research firm Topdown Charts. The recurring "Chart of the Week" format takes a single market chart (here, consensus long-term S&P 500 earnings-growth expectations) and reads it for what it says about sentiment, valuations or positioning. Thomas is also the author of The Chart Storm.

Format: short, single-chart notes that "speak for themselves" — one idea per post, framed as a repeatable analytical read rather than a stock tip.
For retail: distils institutional-style top-down indicators (sentiment/valuation/positioning gauges) into one digestible chart and a contrarian takeaway each week.

Appearances

One dated page per appearance — each has its stock/name table, talking points, and the saved post. Newest first.

Date	Title / analysis page	Source	Read	Transcript	Actionable insights
2026-JUN-21	Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm — 21 June 2026	Chart Storm	↗ Read	transcript	insights
2026-JUN-14	Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm — 14 June 2026	Chart Storm	↗ Read	transcript	insights
2026-JUN-11	Chart of the Week — Earnings Euphoria	Chart Storm	↗ Read	transcript	insights
2026-JUN-06	Weekly ChartStorm — The 2022 Bottom	Chart Storm	↗ Read	transcript	insights
2026-JUN-03	Chart of the Week — The Speculation Generation	Chart Storm	↗ Read	transcript	insights
2026-MAY-31	Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm — 31 May 2026	Chart Storm	↗ Read	transcript	insights

To process — backlog

Appearances not yet processed — newest first. None queued.