David Hay — A "Bridge to Nowhere" Fuel — natural gas is America's #1 source of electricity generation at 43% of the total (nearly double all renewables combined) and the fuel data centers cannot run without, yet bullishness sits "close to the lowest it's been this decade, outside of Covid" and the real price is in the 18th percentile back to 2010; the Permian's rise to America's second-biggest, fastest-growing gas region has suppressed producer profits for want of takeaway (gas often trading at negative prices and being flared), and the ~15 Bcf/d of new Permian pipeline capacity under construction — ~12½% of aggregate U.S. marketed output — should be "a notable earnings kicker," with EOG "likely to be one of the main beneficiaries" as its stock verges on breaking a five-year range (Aug 11 2026)

A short, single-argument Daily that sets the physical importance of natural gas against its financial standing and finds the gap absurd. The fuel is "America's #1 source of electricity generation (at 43% of the total, it is nearly double all renewables combined)" and the only thing that can keep a data center from being an "inert shell" — the US already has "10 times as many" installed data centers as China, before Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle and Google invest another $5.8 trillion by 2030, and those facilities "can't operate in accordance with daylight hours and wind patterns." Yet "bullishness on the blue fuel is close to the lowest it's been this decade, outside of Covid," the most depressed in two years, and the real (inflation-adjusted) price sits in the 18th percentile going back to 2010 — "as though natural gas is being valued as little more than a scarcely used bridge to nowhere." That apathy has "obviously inhibited the market performance of the largest U.S. natural gas producers, like Expand Energy, Range Resources, and EOG." The second injury is plumbing: the Permian has "vaulted to become the country's second-biggest gas-producing region, as well as the fastest growing," and with no pipe to move it the associated gas "has often traded at negative prices," much of it "flared into the atmosphere." The catalyst is that the plumbing is being fixed: midstream is building "multiple new pipelines" totalling "some 15 billion cubic feet per day, about 12½% of aggregate U.S. marketed gas output," which "should create a notable earnings kicker for companies with significant Permian gas production." The named beneficiary: "EOG is likely to be one of the main beneficiaries of this extraordinary delivery surge," and "its stock price appears to be on the verge of breaking out of what is nearly a five-year trading range."

One-line take: the purest statement yet of the house's sentiment-versus-physics screen, applied to the one commodity Hay has called his highest-conviction long since Jun-11 — and, unusually for a gas Daily, the actionable name is an oil company. The argument runs in four moves. (1) The bridge metaphor is being retired for the wrong reason. Gas "has long been considered the bridge energy source, efficiently powering modern society until renewables are ready to absorb the lion's share of that essential burden" — but "there is now a growing awareness that wind and solar are unequal to the task of providing reliable baseload power at scale," a reality check "reinforced by the breathtaking pace of data center installations, all of which require uninterrupted power to properly function. They can't operate in accordance with daylight hours and wind patterns." The demand side is then sized rather than asserted: the U.S. "already leads the world by far… boasting 10 times as many [data centers] as are operating in China," and that is "before Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, and Google invest another $5.8 trillion by 2030, continuing their mad dash to construct gargantuan amounts of computing capacity. Yet, without electricity these facilities will be nothing but inert shells." Note what this does to the rest of the archive's bearish AI framing — Hay's quarrel is with the financing and accounting of the buildout (Jul-26's Oracle-bonds-as-junk, Aug-6's 75%-of-GOOG-profits mark-ups), never with the electricity bill, which he keeps treating as the one unavoidable, non-accounting, physically-settled claim the buildout generates. (2) The valuation of the fuel does not match its role. "A rational observer might assume natural gas, which is America's #1 source of electricity generation (at 43% of the total, it is nearly double all renewables combined) would be highly valued by the investment community. Instead, bullishness on the blue fuel is close to the lowest it's been this decade, outside of Covid" — and "the most depressed it's been for the last two years." The price corroborates the positioning: "in real (or inflation adjusted) terms it is extremely subdued. In fact, it is in the 18th percentile going all the way back to 2010." Both charts are credited to "excellent energy analyst John Kemp" — the same analyst behind the Jun-30 record-USO-short read and the Aug-5 refined-products draw, so the method here is deliberately the one that has already produced the year's oil calls: find the extreme in positioning, then check it against the physical fact the positioning is denying. The verdict is the title: "it's as though natural gas is being valued as little more than a scarcely used bridge to nowhere." (3) The equities have worn it. "That's obviously inhibited the market performance of the largest U.S. natural gas producers, like Expand Energy, Range Resources, and EOG" — the same EXE/RRC pair carried since Jun-11 as "dirt cheap," now named as casualties of sentiment rather than of operations. (4) A second, mechanical injury — and its fix, which is the trade. "Making matters worse, America's most productive oil basin, the Permian, has vaulted to become the country's second-biggest gas-producing region, as well as the fastest growing. This has been another source of profit suppression for U.S. producers due to the lack of pipeline capacity to transport this cornucopia of gas. As a result, it has often traded at negative prices, causing much of this valuable resource to be flared into the atmosphere." That is a supply problem no producer can drill its way out of — and it is being solved by someone else's capex: "America's vibrant mid-stream energy industry has been aggressively constructing added takeaway capacity out of the Permian. There are multiple new pipelines under construction to bring this long-stranded gas to a marketplace that will soon be in desperate need of it. These total some 15 billion cubic feet per day, about 12½% of aggregate U.S. marketed gas output." The conclusion is an earnings mechanic, not a commodity forecast: "this should create a notable earnings kicker for companies with significant Permian gas production," and "EOG is likely to be one of the main beneficiaries of this extraordinary delivery surge," with the chart supplying the timing — "its stock price appears to be on the verge of breaking out of what is nearly a five-year trading range," shown on a five-year Bloomberg chart with overhead resistance marked. The elegance of the pick is that it does not require the Henry Hub price to rise: EOG's kicker comes from the basis — negative-to-zero Waha gas becoming sellable gas — so it pays on the pipe being finished rather than on the sentiment turning, while the sentiment/real-price extremes are free optionality on top. Continuity note: this is the same argument shape as Jul-27's AESI (mechanical, non-fundamental price suppression into a turning cycle) and Jul-26's GDX/GDXJ (record outflows read as apathy, not information) — the third instance this month of "the selling is structural, the asset is not." Format note: a chart-led Daily with no portfolio-table changes and no explicit Buy-list action — EOG is named as the likely beneficiary and a chart set-up, not stamped with a rating.

1. Stocks & names mentioned

Ticker	Name	Research	View	What he said	At
EOG	EOG Resources	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	The Daily's explicit pick and a clear upgrade from the Jan-20 "valuation benchmark" mention: "EOG is likely to be one of the main beneficiaries of this extraordinary delivery surge." The mechanism is basis, not price. The Permian — "America's most productive oil basin" — "has vaulted to become the country's second-biggest gas-producing region, as well as the fastest growing," and with no pipe to move the associated gas it "has often traded at negative prices, causing much of this valuable resource to be flared into the atmosphere" — "another source of profit suppression for U.S. producers." Midstream is now fixing it: "multiple new pipelines under construction" out of the Permian totalling "some 15 billion cubic feet per day, about 12½% of aggregate U.S. marketed gas output," delivering "long-stranded gas to a marketplace that will soon be in desperate need of it." Hence "this should create a notable earnings kicker for companies with significant Permian gas production" — molecules currently flared or sold below zero start clearing at a real price, with no incremental drilling required. The technical trigger is supplied alongside the fundamental one: "its stock price appears to be on the verge of breaking out of what is nearly a five-year trading range" (five-year Bloomberg chart, overhead resistance displayed) — the multi-year range-expansion set-up Haymaker repeatedly favours (KRE, AGI). It sits inside the wider claim that gas — "America's #1 source of electricity generation (at 43% of the total… nearly double all renewables combined)" and the only thing standing between a data center and being an "inert shell" — is priced "as though [it] is being valued as little more than a scarcely used bridge to nowhere." No rating stamp or Buy-list action accompanies the name.	read ↗
EXE	Expand Energy	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	Named as one of "the largest U.S. natural gas producers, like Expand Energy, Range Resources, and EOG," whose "market performance" has been "obviously inhibited" by the apathy the post exists to argue against — bullishness "close to the lowest it's been this decade, outside of Covid" and a real gas price in the "18th percentile going all the way back to 2010," against a fuel supplying 43% of U.S. electricity generation, "nearly double all renewables combined," into data-center load that "can't operate in accordance with daylight hours and wind patterns." The stance is therefore the suppression is sentiment, not substance — consistent with the standing "dirt cheap" Buy-list posture on EXE carried since Jun-11 and the May-29 POW! pure-play case. Two qualifiers to read honestly: no fresh rating, price, target or portfolio action is attached here, and the specific Permian takeaway kicker is not EXE's — Expand is a Haynesville/Appalachian producer, so it benefits from the demand and sentiment legs of the argument rather than from the basis relief that makes EOG the named beneficiary. If anything, 15 Bcf/d of newly-liberated Permian associated gas reaching market is incremental supply competing with Appalachian molecules — a tension the post does not address.	read ↗
RRC	Range Resources	QT · SA · STK · FA	Positive	The third name in the same clause — "the largest U.S. natural gas producers, like Expand Energy, Range Resources, and EOG" — cited as a casualty of the investor "apathy (bordering on antipathy)" that has valued gas "as little more than a scarcely used bridge to nowhere" despite it being "America's #1 source of electricity generation." Same reading as EXE: the depressed share performance is attributed to sentiment and a subdued real price (18th percentile since 2010) rather than to the business, which keeps Haymaker's standing "dirt cheap" Appalachian-gas posture intact. Same two qualifiers: no rating, price or portfolio action is attached, and as a pure Appalachian producer Range does not receive the Permian takeaway earnings kicker that is the post's specific, datable catalyst — it is levered to the demand and sentiment arguments only.	read ↗

"View" is Haymaker's stance in this Daily. EOG is the only name given an argued, name-specific catalyst ("likely to be one of the main beneficiaries"); EXE and RRC are named as the depressed large-cap gas producers whose share performance the post argues has been unfairly suppressed — a reiteration of the standing bullish gas-producer stance, not fresh rated calls. Referenced only (not rowed): Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle and Google — named in a single clause sizing the demand side ("another $5.8 trillion by 2030… without electricity these facilities will be nothing but inert shells"). Deliberately not rowed: the post takes no view on their shares, and rowing them Neutral would overwrite the argued stances this archive already carries — Jul-26's Negative on ORCL ("Oracle bonds are trading almost like junk"), its Neutral capex-cut optionality on META and capital-light-era-ending note on AAPL/MSFT, and Aug-6's earnings-quality charge on GOOG. Their function here is as the size of the electricity claim, not as securities. Also referenced: John Kemp (credited for the sentiment and real-price charts — a person, so not captured), the Permian basin, and the unnamed mid-stream industry building the ~15 Bcf/d of takeaway (see the pipelines / midstream theme). Research: QT Qualtrim · SA Seeking Alpha · STK Stock Analysis.

2. Talking points

The bridge that is being asked to become the destination

"Natural gas has long been considered the bridge energy source, efficiently powering modern society until renewables are ready to absorb the lion's share of that essential burden."
"There is now, however, a growing awareness that wind and solar are unequal to the task of providing reliable baseload power at scale." The bridge is not being crossed — the far bank has moved.

Data centers are the reality check

The realisation "has been reinforced by the breathtaking pace of data center installations, all of which require uninterrupted power to properly function."
The disqualifying detail for intermittent supply, stated plainly: "They can't operate in accordance with daylight hours and wind patterns." A 99%-uptime load cannot be served by a 30-40%-capacity-factor source without something firm behind it.

Sizing the demand — and the $5.8 trillion still to come

"As noted in prior Dailies, the U.S. already leads the world by far when it comes to installed data centers, boasting 10 times as many as are operating in China."
"Moreover, this is before Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, and Google invest another $5.8 trillion by 2030, continuing their mad dash to construct gargantuan amounts of computing capacity."
The line that ties the capex to the commodity: "Yet, without electricity these facilities will be nothing but inert shells." Note the asymmetry with the rest of the archive — Haymaker disputes how the buildout is financed and accounted for, never that it will consume power.

The mismatch — 43% of generation, decade-low bullishness

"A rational observer might assume natural gas, which is America's #1 source of electricity generation (at 43% of the total, it is nearly double all renewables combined) would be highly valued by the investment community."
"Instead, bullishness on the blue fuel is close to the lowest it's been this decade, outside of Covid. It is also the most depressed it's been for the last two years."
Charts credited: "Our thanks to excellent energy analyst John Kemp for the next two charts" — the same analyst behind the Jun-30 record-short USO read and the Aug-5 refined-products draw.

The real price confirms the positioning

"Its price in real (or inflation adjusted) terms is extremely subdued. In fact, it is in the 18th percentile going all the way back to 2010."
Why the inflation adjustment matters: a nominal $3 handle looks merely cheap; deflated back to 2010 it puts today near the bottom fifth of a sixteen-year distribution — i.e. cheap against the cost base of producing it, not just against its own history.
The verdict, and the title: "Based on this investor apathy (bordering on antipathy) it's as though natural gas is being valued as little more than a scarcely used bridge to nowhere."

Who has worn it — the producers

"That's obviously inhibited the market performance of the largest U.S. natural gas producers, like Expand Energy, Range Resources, and EOG."
The framing is exculpatory: the underperformance is attributed to the commodity's standing with investors, not to the companies' operations — the same "the selling is structural, the asset is not" reading applied to GDX/GDXJ and AESI in the previous fortnight.

The second injury — the Permian became a gas basin nobody planned for

"Making matters worse, America's most productive oil basin, the Permian, has vaulted to become the country's second-biggest gas-producing region, as well as the fastest growing."
"This has been another source of profit suppression for U.S. producers due to the lack of pipeline capacity to transport this cornucopia of gas."
The consequence, and the waste: "As a result, it has often traded at negative prices, causing much of this valuable resource to be flared into the atmosphere." Associated gas comes up whether the operator wants it or not — with no pipe, the choice is pay someone to take it or burn it.

The fix is already being built — and it is someone else's capex

"Fortunately, America's vibrant mid-stream energy industry has been aggressively constructing added takeaway capacity out of the Permian."
"There are multiple new pipelines under construction to bring this long-stranded gas to a marketplace that will soon be in desperate need of it."
The scale: "These total some 15 billion cubic feet per day, about 12½% of aggregate U.S. marketed gas output" — a plumbing change large enough to move a national balance, not a single-basin curiosity.

The trade — an earnings kicker, not a price forecast

"This should create a notable earnings kicker for companies with significant Permian gas production."
"EOG is likely to be one of the main beneficiaries of this extraordinary delivery surge."
What makes it unusually robust: the kicker comes from basis — molecules that were flared or sold at negative prices now clearing at a real one — so it does not require Henry Hub to rally. The decade-low sentiment and 18th-percentile real price are then free upside on top.

The chart — a five-year range about to break

"Its stock price appears to be on the verge of breaking out of what is nearly a five-year trading range," shown on a five-year Bloomberg price chart with overhead resistance displayed.
The multi-year range expansion is Haymaker's most-repeated technical set-up — the same signal behind KRE, the Japanese banks, FANG/HAL and EQT. Here it supplies the timing for a fundamental catalyst with a construction schedule attached.

Housekeeping

A short, chart-led Daily: no Buys / Trims-Holds / Sells tables, no rating stamp on EOG, and no price or target given. Signed off, as usual for this format, by "The Haymaker Team."

3. In plain English

A jargon-free note on why each name matters here. (Companion to the table above; renders on each name's consolidated page.)

EOG — EOG Resources Positive

EOG is one of the biggest American oil and gas producers, and most of its best acreage is in the Permian Basin of west Texas and New Mexico. It drills for oil — but oil wells bring up natural gas whether the driller wants it or not, and that is the whole point of this piece.

The problem until now has been plumbing. So much gas comes up alongside Permian oil that the region has quietly become America's second-largest and fastest-growing source of gas, and there simply aren't enough pipelines to carry it away. When you cannot move a product, its local price collapses — Permian gas "has often traded at negative prices," meaning producers had to pay someone to take it off their hands, and a great deal of it was simply burned off at the wellhead. That is pure lost revenue, and Hay calls it "another source of profit suppression."

What has changed is that pipeline companies have been building hard. Multiple new lines are under construction out of the Permian, adding around 15 billion cubic feet a day of capacity — roughly an eighth of all the gas America sells. When they open, gas that was worthless-or-worse where it sat suddenly reaches customers who will pay for it.

That is why Hay says EOG "is likely to be one of the main beneficiaries." The attraction is that the gain doesn't depend on the price of gas going up. EOG doesn't have to drill a single extra well or wait for the market to fall in love with gas again; it just has to keep producing what it already produces, and start getting paid for the part it was previously flaring or giving away. Hay calls it "a notable earnings kicker."

The backdrop makes it better rather than making it necessary. Natural gas generates 43% of America's electricity — nearly twice everything wind and solar produce combined — and the data centres now being built cannot run on sunshine and wind, because they need power that never stops. The five biggest technology companies plan to spend another $5.8 trillion on those buildings by 2030, and, as Hay puts it, "without electricity these facilities will be nothing but inert shells." Yet investors are more bearish on gas than at almost any point this decade outside Covid, and after adjusting for inflation the price sits in the bottom fifth of everything seen since 2010. His phrase for that mismatch gives the piece its title: gas is being priced "as little more than a scarcely used bridge to nowhere."

Finally, the timing signal. EOG's share price has gone essentially nowhere for close to five years, and it is now pressing against the top of that range. Hay repeatedly favours this pattern — a stock that has been asleep for years, breaking out just as a concrete reason to own it arrives.

EXE — Expand Energy Positive

Expand Energy is the largest pure natural-gas producer in the United States, concentrated in the Haynesville shale of Louisiana/east Texas and in Appalachia. Unlike EOG it doesn't produce gas as a by-product of drilling for oil — gas is the business, so its fortunes track the gas price and how investors feel about gas almost one-for-one.

Hay names it here as an injured party rather than as a fresh recommendation. His point is that the shares of "the largest U.S. natural gas producers, like Expand Energy, Range Resources, and EOG" have been held back by how investors feel about the commodity, not by anything the companies have done wrong. And the way investors feel is close to the most negative it has been in a decade outside the Covid crash, while the inflation-adjusted price of gas sits in the bottom fifth of its range since 2010 — even though gas supplies 43% of American electricity and the data-centre boom needs power that runs around the clock.

So the stance is the contrarian one he has held on gas all year: the pessimism is about sentiment, the asset is fine. Two honest caveats, though. He attaches no new rating, price or target to Expand in this piece. And the specific catalyst he identifies — new Permian pipelines unlocking stranded gas — is not Expand's catalyst, because Expand doesn't produce in the Permian. If anything, that freed-up gas eventually competes with Expand's own molecules for the same customers, a tension the piece doesn't take up.

RRC — Range Resources Positive

Range Resources is one of the original Marcellus shale producers in Pennsylvania — a pure Appalachian gas company, and one of the cheapest of the large US gas names on earnings, which is why Hay has carried it as "dirt cheap" since June.

It appears here in the same breath as Expand Energy: one of the big gas producers whose share performance has been "obviously inhibited" by investors treating natural gas as a fuel on its way out. Hay's argument is that this is backwards. Gas is the single biggest source of American electricity at 43% of the total, nearly double all renewables put together, and the enormous data centres being built cannot depend on daylight and wind. He describes the market's attitude as "apathy (bordering on antipathy)" and says the fuel is being valued "as little more than a scarcely used bridge to nowhere."

As with Expand: this is a reiteration of a standing bullish view, not a rated call — no price, target or portfolio action is given — and the piece's concrete catalyst, the new Permian pipelines, does not apply to Range, which produces nowhere near west Texas. Range benefits only if the demand argument and the sentiment turn come through.

Summary derived from the paid Haymaker newsletter (text in transcript.txt) for personal study. Not investment advice. © Haymaker / David Hay for source material.