Peter Grandich — research hub
Peter Grandich · founder of Peter Grandich & Co. and part of a planning group running close to $2bn; 40+ years in markets, formerly publisher of the North of the Border newsletter. A capital-preservation-first commentator, out of Treasury bonds since end-2021 and heavily oriented to gold, metals and mining equities.
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► Neutral / referenced
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▼ Negative
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Overall thesis
In one line: The break comes from the bond market, not the stock market — he took a ~$2bn planning group out of Treasuries at the end of 2021 and has watched the asset that was supposed to save your money lose it including the coupon; the trigger to watch is 5% on the 10-year held for more than a couple of days, the credit round trip is already complete (sell junk), the Fed may be forced to hike because a rate differential is the last lever left to fund a deficit foreigners have stopped funding — and the only asset group he would hold through a lower price is gold, major producing miners and commodity-related names, under a standing rule of capital preservation over capital appreciation.
Grounded only in what he says on 2026-SEP-09 — the first appearance archived here, so this thesis is necessarily partial and will be revised as more are processed.
- Bonds broke the rule the industry was built on. "You buy stocks to try to make money and you buy bonds to save your money" — and a Treasury buyer from end-2021 to now "including the dividend yield, has actually lost money. It's unheard of." He calls staying out of Treasuries "one of the best calls of my career" and says the losses continue.
- 5% on the 10-year is the line in the sand. Not a touch — above it and staying there for more than a couple of days. Then "a huge, huge bond crisis," and the weight falls on equities because the AI complex is funding its buildout in debt instruments. At recording the 10-year was 4.83% with the VIX near 15 and no crisis premium priced anywhere.
- The junk-spread round trip is finished — sell junk. He flagged one of the widest junk-to-Treasury spreads at the start of 2025 and pre-committed the exit to a level, not a date: "if it gets to where it's close to Treasuries you're going to want to sell junk bonds too." At a compressed spread you get Treasury-like yield with equity-like downside.
- The Fed may have to hike, and not hiking is the worse outcome. Foreigners have stopped funding multi-trillion deficits, so "in order to attract that capital, we have to have a better interest rate differential… the Fed has really no choice." A hike also buys credibility with bond vigilantes; no hike with long rates rising anyway "can really start a dramatic sell-off." And the Fed and Treasury are now openly pulling against each other.
- The inflation test is a stagflation test. "3% inflation in a moderate to slow economy is actually worse than 5% inflation in a strong economy." Judge the print against the growth it sits on — and check its vintage, because energy (oil back above $100, diesel through the roof) moved after the survey period closed.
- Gold is the core position and is structurally replacing bonds. Since end-2021, on the view that gold would beat both stocks and bonds — "which it has." Institutions are now cutting the 40% bond sleeve to 20 and putting the rest in gold. The bid he cares about is price-insensitive: China and Asian retail buying "not because one day they hope to sell it and make a profit" but because gold is being built into settlement as fiat stops being the answer.
- Mining-share ownership is at the lowest level ever recorded versus every other sector, "at a time when the arguments for metals have never been stronger." Explicitly not juniors — major producing companies, base and precious. He expects the financial media to be talking about mining within a year the way they talked about technology a few years ago. Physical corroboration: the US Army went to buy tungsten for military use "and couldn't find any that they could purchase."
- He owns no vehicle and promotes nothing. "I don't have a tungsten play. I don't have anything to promote." No dry food, no guns, no ammo, no log cabins — "I'm not a doomster. I don't sell anything that's going to profit." The absence of a promoted product is a deliberate part of how he presents the argument.
- Negative on the dollar, the EU and the geopolitical trend. The US "has isolated itself on the world stage monetarily, economically, militarily, trade-wise," and "this is where the dollar really is going to pay the dues." On Europe: "I believe the EU is the beginning of the end of it" — von der Leyen's push to mobilise EUR 10tn of "lazy" savings, like Washington's push to open retirement money to private equity, is "a bailout" of decades of poor decisions.
- The closing rule, and the mandate behind it. His planning group is mostly retirees: "now is the time for capital preservation over capital appreciation. It's not how much you're going to make, it's how much you don't lose, which is going to matter over the next couple of years." The household version is the same rule — build a budget, spend less than you make, before the tax-and-cut phase arrives.
The product — Peter Grandich & Co., and the free "Pete Speaks"
What it is: a planning group with close to $2bn under management, "mostly retirees" (the host's characterisation, unchallenged), run by Peter Grandich over a 42-year career that began when "we only had two stock exchanges." It is an advisory practice, not a subscription letter — he says plainly "I don't sell anything that's going to profit" and "I don't have anything to promote." What is public and free is Pete Speaks, his YouTube channel of regular market updates, and his X page; he formerly wrote a newsletter called North of the Border.
Grounded only in what he says on 2026-SEP-09 — the first appearance archived here, so the picture is partial and will be revised as more are processed.
| Offering | What it is | How he runs it | Seen in the index |
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| The planning group | The core business — "we have a planning group of close to 2 billion under management," a client base the host describes as mostly retirees. | Top-down and asset-class level rather than stock-picking: the defining act he describes is a single allocation decision at the end of 2021 — out of Treasury bonds, into gold — taken on one premise, that rates could only go up and go up a lot. | — (no tickers named on air) |
| The house rule | The standing instruction he gives both prospects and existing clients, and the closing line of the interview. | "Now is the time for capital preservation over capital appreciation. It's not how much you're going to make, it's how much you don't lose, which is going to matter over the next couple of years." Applied with an explicit horizon rather than as a permanent posture. | — |
| Household planning advice | What he says to someone in the 63%-living-paycheck-to-paycheck cohort who asks for help — the part of the practice that is not portfolio management. | "What I say to them normally they don't like hearing, and that is you have to spend less than you make. That's the first order of business." Then a budget and a moat "so when the government comes knocking" — because governments have only two levers, "raise taxes and cut services." He does not oversell it: even people doing this are struggling, "because costs are much higher than the government has been telling us." | — |
| Pete Speaks (free) | His YouTube channel of regular updates on his market views — the host points viewers to it and Grandich references a video released the day before this interview. | Free and public. It is where he made the "staying out of Treasury bonds was one of the best calls of my career" statement that Lin quotes back to him. | — |
| X page (free) | Where he directs people at the end of the interview: "you can follow me on my X page. I look forward to the comments." | Openly invites disagreement — he expects the political portions of this appearance to draw hostile responses and says so. | — |
| What he explicitly does not sell | The disclaimer is a recurring part of his presentation, not an aside. | "I'm not a doomster. I don't sell anything that's going to profit. I don't have dry food or guns or ammo or log cabins in the woods." And on the metals call: "I don't have a tungsten play. I don't have anything to promote for tungsten." | — |
How it serves retail investors:
- Levels, not narratives. The bearish case comes with a checkable trigger — 5% on the 10-year, held more than a couple of days — so a listener can tell whether it has happened rather than having to agree with it.
- Pre-committed exits. The junk-bond call is the model: state the entry condition (widest spread), the expected path (compression), and the exit level (spread near Treasuries), 20 months before the exit triggers.
- No product behind the view. He makes a strongly bullish metals case while stating he has nothing to sell in it — which is the reason to weight the argument, and rare in that sector's commentary.
- Retiree-appropriate framing. The mandate is preservation, and the advice follows from it: the scoring rule is drawdown, not return, for a defined couple of years.
- The non-portfolio half is taken seriously. Budget, spending, and the coming tax-and-cut squeeze on households are treated as part of the plan rather than as a preamble — including the uncomfortable answer that discipline alone may not be enough.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.
To process — backlog
Appearances not yet processed — newest first. None queued yet.
For personal study — not investment advice. Source material © the respective publishers.