| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSA | 8 | $83.76 | $670 | 0.62% | $105.85 | $-177 | -20.9% | — |
In short: Passing mention — Sechan (37:53) cites Deckers' Hoka, with On's shoes, as the new entrants that "forced Nike to wake up." No stance on the stock.
In short: BUY. ER 12.21%; fwd PE 14.0 vs 21.3 (34.3% under); the price implies −1.6% growth vs 7.0% expected. YTD −23.6%.
In short: "Deckers Outdoors: 76%" on ROIC — ninth on the sort (ROCE 45.2%, FCF margin 20.0%, gross margin 54.4%, EPS CAGR 22.5%, $11.5bn market cap). Rated BUY on the 23 August sheet at 14.0x forward; listed only here.
In short: BUY. ER 12.21%; fwd PE 14.0 against a 21.3 average (34.3% under); the reverse DCF requires 0.0% growth against 7.0% expected — i.e. the price implies no growth at all. Ten-year CAGR 23.2%; YTD −15.2%.
In short: BUY. FV $122.0 vs $104.3 = 14.6% under; ER 12.2%; fwd PE 14.0 against 21.3 (34.3% under); RDCF 3.1% vs 7.0%. YTD −2.4% on a 27.1% ten-year CAGR.
In short: BUY. FV $126.5 vs $108.1 = 14.6% under; ER 12.2%; fwd PE 14.0 against 21.3 (34.3% under); RDCF 4.6% vs 7.0%. Flat on the year (+1.2%) on a 28.1% ten-year CAGR.
In short: BUY. EPS growth 7.0%, FWD PE 14.0 against a fair exit 21.3, expected return 12.2%, fair value 118.5 against 101.3 = 14.6% undervalued.
In short: BUY. 14.1x forward against a 21.3x five-year average (33.8% under), expected return 12.1%, +2.4pp reverse-DCF margin, on the second-best ten-year record on the sheet at 26.4%.
In short: Pick of the Week — UGG/HOKA parent, down ~50% in 2025 on a "tariff uncertainty overhang" now largely mitigated: FY26 net tariff hit slashed to ~$25M (from $75–110M, a ~77% cut) via pricing + supply-chain moves, re-rating the multiple. Record Q3 FY26 (rev $1.96B, GAAP EPS $3.33 well above consensus); FY26 guide raised to ≤$5.425B rev / $6.80–6.85 EPS; TTM EPS $7.04, 19.35% margin. ~14.7× P/E (~13.25 ex-$1.74B net cash), zero debt, ~$1B FCF ≈ after-tax income, $1.8B buyback remaining (bought at depressed prices). HOKA low-teens growth; a third brand could push long-run EPS CAGR ~12%. Broke the 2024 downtrend, back above the 200-day MA; "a strong move into the mid $150's" into next earnings. A 2–4-quarter opportunity; the Iran-correction dip is "a better entry." Idea co-authored with Daniel Bustamante.
Deckers is the company behind two footwear brands you've probably seen everywhere: UGG boots and HOKA running shoes. Its stock got cut roughly in half during 2025, almost entirely because of fears that new import tariffs would gut its profits (its shoes are made overseas). The key development is that those fears turned out to be overblown: Deckers found ways — raising some prices, rerouting its supply chain — to shrink the actual tariff cost to about $25 million instead of the feared $75–110 million. Because that cost comes straight off the bottom line, removing most of it makes the company's earnings (the "E" in price-to-earnings) jump, which makes the stock look cheaper overnight even at the same price.
Meanwhile the business is firing: record revenue, a big earnings beat, HOKA growing fast, no debt at all, about $1.7B of cash in the bank, and roughly $1B of genuine surplus cash being thrown off every year. Management is using that cash to buy back its own shares aggressively ($1.8B still authorized) while the price is depressed — exactly when buybacks add the most value. On the chart the long downtrend has broken and the stock has climbed back above its 200-day average for the first time in over a year. Haymaker (with new contributor Dan Bustamante) thinks the recovering business, cheap valuation and clean balance sheet set up a move toward the mid-$150s over the next two to four quarters, and the post-war-scare dip is a good entry point.
In short: BUY. 15.7x forward against a 21.3x average (26.3% under), a 10.6% expected return and a 2.8pp reverse-DCF margin. A 30.0% ten-year CAGR — the best on the list — against a −5.7% year.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.