In short: "Fairly priced, even cheap." Fair value ~$33 vs $26 at ~$6.60 copper (bear −4% / base +14% / bull +42% at $5/$6/$7, 10% discount rate, 5% perpetual growth); net cash, negative C1 cost on gold credits, growth to 250k t then 500k t+ in the US; top of the second page of his ranking — but "I'm going to wait for a crash before buying anything in copper."
Hudbay is a mid-sized Canadian mining company that digs up mostly copper, plus a good amount of gold, from mines in Peru and Canada. Because it sells so much gold as a side product, the gold revenue more than covers the cost of producing its copper — on paper its copper costs are below zero. Its big growth plan is in the United States: new copper mines in Arizona (Copper World and Cactus) and later Nevada (Mason), which could roughly triple its copper output over time. A Japanese trading house, Mitsubishi, has paid $600 million for 30% of the main Arizona project and pays its share of the building costs, which lowers Hudbay's risk.
The company has paid down its debt until it now holds more cash than it owes, and it reinvests its money in new mines rather than paying dividends. Lukacs values it by projecting cash flows at three copper prices ($5, $6 and $7 a pound): at today's copper price he puts fair value near $33 a share against a $26 price, so it looks fairly priced to cheap. What he likes most is where the mines are — safe countries like Canada and the US — which he thinks the market now rewards. Still, he says he will wait for a recession-driven crash before buying any copper stock.
17:216. So that's halfway through. It should be 33, let's say, is the fair price at this level. And the company's trading at 26. So there is some margin of safety to buy the company and just hold through. Maybe there's going to be a massive correction in a macro pullback. That's what I'm waiting for actually, that energy prices and higher rates will crash the economy and then I can buy up cheaper the copper names.
In short: Twice a reference point, not a pick: the historic producer of Gladiator's Cowley Park pits, and the acquirer that paid ~$1.6B for Arizona Sonoran — his template for how a Gladiator-type district ends up owned by a major.
9:13They're looking at this as a multi-billion dollar asset. So kind of like Arizona Sonora, which you probably remember. I was a shareholder in that company before it went public. it took a longer because copper wasn't doing as well during that time frame but they were bought out for I think $1.6 $6 billion by HUD bay.
In short: Confirmed as a live holding inside the debasement trade: copper "rallied to about 6.6 a pound. And copper stocks like HBM have also done quite well, which we are holders of." The logic that carries it is the same one behind gold and silver — if the Treasury has to escalate its buybacks the way the Bank of Japan escalated its yield-curve control, the dollar is the release valve, "which is positive for gold, which is positive for silver, which is positive for real estate and agricultural land, and it's also positive for crypto."
Hudbay is a Canadian miner of copper — and Singh confirms on this call that he owns it. Copper rose to about $6.60 a pound in the same week gold and silver jumped, and mining shares rose more than the metal because a miner's profit is the difference between a roughly fixed cost of digging and a rising selling price. That leverage cuts both ways, which is why the position sits alongside gold rather than replacing it.
The reasoning is the same one behind the precious metals. If a falling dollar is the release valve for an over-indebted government, then everything priced in dollars that cannot be printed — metals, land, property — is worth more in dollar terms. Copper adds a second engine: it is the physical input for electrical grids and data centres, so the same AI build-out that is straining the bond market also consumes copper.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Flagged alongside the AGI gold comps: "we frankly think HBM is quite interesting and would be buying here" for long-term industrial-copper demand exposure.
While reviewing the gold-miner comparison sheet for Alamos, Singh flagged Hudbay — a copper miner — as "quite interesting" and a name he'd be buying for long-term exposure to industrial copper demand.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Buy, C$57 target (+46.9% from C$38.79) even after a +202.6% year — negative 2026E cash costs (−$0.83/lb on by-product credits) and $1.11/lb AISC, the lowest-cost copper in the book.
In short: Moved from Hold to Hold/Trim after ~+175% (recommended ~$10.46 last July, now ~$29 off an all-time high). Take partial profits to de-risk a large, cyclically extended position; hold a core for the genuine late-decade copper deficit. Don't add here; re-add on a substantial pullback (copper to $5–5.50/lb on a confirmed surplus, or a deeper gold drop that unwinds the negative-cash-cost story). Price/Sales near a 5-yr high; consensus target only ~$30.
Hudbay is a copper miner that also produces a lot of gold as a by-product. Haymaker recommended it last July around $10.46 when copper was hated; it's now about $29 — up roughly 175%. Three things drove that: copper hit record prices, gold's record run made Hudbay's by-product gold so valuable it effectively paid for all the copper (Hudbay's "cost" to mine copper briefly went negative), and the market re-rated the stock from a boring cyclical to a prized copper growth story.
The catch is that all three are near their best-case levels at once, so the stock is now a concentrated bet on copper and gold staying at records — and gold has started slipping. On normal mid-cycle metal prices it's no longer cheap (one valuation gauge sits near a five-year high), and analysts' average target is barely above today's price. So Haymaker is moving it from "Hold" to "Hold/Trim": sell some to lock in a big gain, keep a core piece for the real copper shortage expected later this decade, and look to buy more only if copper or gold drops hard. The lesson he cites: don't let a great winner round-trip back down the way the gold and silver miners just did.
In short: Bought Arizona Sonoran at a ~30% premium — the deal that delivered the 137% gain and confirms buyers will pay up for scarce copper.
In short: A mid-tier copper producer paying up for supply — taking out Arizona Sonoran Copper at a ~30% premium; confidence that copper assets are worth chasing.
Hudbay, a mid-sized copper producer, is buying Arizona Sonoran Copper for about 30% more than its market price. Paying a 30% premium is a strong statement — Hudbay clearly thinks owning more copper (especially permitted US copper, which is hard to get approved) is worth far more than the stock market currently assumes.
In short: "An excellent speculation" on copper — bringing on Cactus & Copper World (US) by decade-end; won't dent global supply but a big equity-value-creation story for Hudbay. "You're good with Hudbay."
Hudbay is a copper miner he calls "an excellent speculation." It's bringing two smaller US copper mines (Cactus and Copper World) online by the end of the decade.
Those won't move the global copper market much, but for a company Hudbay's size they could add a lot of value to the stock. "You're good with Hudbay."
42:13So, your uh viewer uh asked about Hudbay. I think Hudbay is an excellent speculation. You know, they're bringing on a couple of small mines in the US by the end of the decade. There's Cactus and Copper World. Won't make a dent in the global supply, but for Hudbay, it's going to be a big equity value creation story.
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