| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 1,597 | $8.45 | $13,502 | 0.55% | $9.82 | $-2,180 | -13.9% | — |
In short: "A long shot... home run bet." World-class, high-grade copper (Kamoa-Kakula, Western Forelands) and strong backers, but risky jurisdictions (DRC, South Africa), a B−/B credit rating, negative free cash flow and dilution. Graded yellow/orange: "I don't know how to value them"; his model is "kind of useless." On the second page of his ranking, so not a buy.
Ivanhoe Mines is a Canadian-listed company whose mines are in Africa. Its main asset, Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is one of the biggest and richest copper deposits in the world. "Richest" means each tonne of rock holds far more copper than usual, so it is cheaper to produce. It also has a zinc mine (Kipushi), a platinum-group-metals project in South Africa (Platreef), and a huge new copper discovery next door (the Western Forelands). Its own smelter, a plant that turns concentrate into metal, is already lowering costs.
The catch is where the mines are, and how much they cost to build. The DRC and South Africa are risky places to operate. The company is spending so heavily on new mines that it burns cash, so it has borrowed and issued more shares. The rating agencies grade its debt as speculative ("junk"), and a flood after a seismic event at one mine in 2025 has held the stock back. Lukacs likes the owners: founder Robert Friedland holds about 11.5%, and big Chinese miners and a Qatari state fund are on the register. But he admits his valuation model is basically guesswork. His verdict: great rock in a bad neighbourhood, a long-shot "home run bet" rather than a stock with a margin of safety.
10:58So you basically have amazing assets. If those assets would be anywhere else but in Africa, even Latin America, but you know, if you would have those assets in Canada or the US or Australia, this would be an extremely highly valued company. Today, I don't know how to value them because great assets against risky jurisdiction.
In short: Named only as a peer — Kamoa-Kakula (1.4 Bt) sits just north in the DRC within the Domes box; Ivanhoe recently took ~8,000 km of grassroots ground tying onto its Western Forelands project in Angola — evidence the majors are hunting new discoveries.
34:04are looking for a new discovery. Ivanhoe took out 8,000 km of land for exploration ground tying onto their Western Forelands project in Angola about 6 or 8 months ago. — Massive land package, all grassroots. — So, what does it do? If Midnight Sun successfully puts that on the map, — you can see where it's going.
In short: "No major news this month." (AIA Portfolio holding.)
In short: Q2 2026 — "Kamoa copper mine production has stabilized and is poised to increase," with the company focused on 500k tons of copper by 2028. The Gulf war has made sulphuric acid short worldwide; the Kamoa smelter produces it as a by-product, and soaring prices "reduced costs for the produced copper." Kipushi zinc "is hitting on all cylinders," Platreef progressing, Western Forelands exploration continuing. "I remain bullish."
Ivanhoe runs Kamoa-Kakula in the Congo, one of the biggest and highest-grade copper mines in the world. It had been recovering from an underground flood; this quarter production stabilized and is set to climb toward 500,000 tonnes of copper a year by 2028.
The interesting wrinkle is a by-product. Smelting copper produces sulphuric acid, which most miners have to buy rather than sell. The Gulf war knocked out a chunk of world supply, prices soared, and Ivanhoe's on-site smelter is now selling the stuff — which shows up as lower net cost per pound of copper. Alongside that, its Kipushi zinc mine is running flat out and the Platreef platinum project keeps advancing. "I remain bullish."
In short: Kipushi produced a record 25,677 tonnes of zinc in May (concentrators milled a record 72,003 t of ore at 93% recovery, 36.2% zinc feed grade); YTD ~110,000 t, roughly mid-point of 2026 guidance (240,000–290,000 t). "A top-ten zinc mine in the world that gets ignored when discussing Ivanhoe."
In short: Hold, C$13 target (+12.7% from C$11.54) — 0.7× P/NAV but 73.6× 2026E P/E and nm free cash flow.
In short: The copper exemplar: "you don't even need an AI revolution to be bullish on copper." Cites Robert Friedland (Ivanhoe) — "one of my favorite guys… I like to be invested along with the Lundin people" — that the world must mine more copper in the next 10–20 years than in all of history; the ore is there but in poor jurisdictions, harder/longer/costlier, so "$3 copper… those days are over." Holds the structural copper thesis through Ivanhoe.
Polomny uses Ivanhoe as the poster child for his copper thesis. The simple version: the world has to dig up more copper in the next 10–20 years than it has in all of human history (electrification, grids, data centers), but we've under-invested in new mines for over a decade — so the copper that's left is in harder, riskier places and costs more to extract. That means the old "$3 copper" price is gone except in a recession. He follows mine-builders with proven track records — Robert Friedland (who runs Ivanhoe) and the Lundin family — because owning the operators who can actually pull world-class copper out of tough jurisdictions is how he plays a multi-decade supply shortage.
15:30There's plenty of stuff in the ground. We have spent over well over a decade depending on what resource you want to look at but in quite a few — just the main ones. Let's just look at copper for example. You don't even need an AI revolution to be bullish on copper. You can listen to a guy I know, Robert Friedland, one of my favorite guys.
In short: The portfolio copper miner whose smelter throws off sulfur as a byproduct: sulfur prices have doubled since Hormuz closed (it removed ~20–30% of world supply), so the company is "making basically around a million dollars a day just from sulfuric acid/sulfur sales" — an unanticipated second-order windfall on top of copper above $6/lb.
Ivanhoe mines copper, and its on-site smelter spits out sulfur as a waste byproduct. Normally that's a nuisance — but the Strait of Hormuz closure knocked out ~20–30% of the world's sulfur supply (most sulfur comes from refining Gulf crude), so the price doubled. Suddenly Ivanhoe's "waste" sells for roughly a million dollars a day, pure bonus on top of copper above $6 a pound.
This is Polomny's favorite kind of setup: buy a good company you already like, then "put yourself in a situation to get lucky." The sulfur windfall is a textbook second/third-order effect of the war that almost nobody was watching for.
54:16It has a smelting operation and it produces a lot of sulfur as a byproduct and they don't need sulfuric acid for their process. And so they're able to sell the sulfur that they create from their smelting process to other people that are short of it to create sulfuric acid that they need for their processes. And it's so lucrative. I believe the company's making basically around a million dollars a day just from sulfuric acid or sulfur sales.
In short: Q1 loss was a one-off ($183M Kamoa-Kakula tax settlement); cash costs below guidance, the on-site smelter's sulphuric acid is "a one-million-dollar-a-day operating credit," Platreef Shaft #3 done, Kipushi record zinc. "Copper is going higher… I am long and will likely buy more on any resolution to the Iran war."
Ivanhoe operates Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC, one of the world's biggest and highest-grade copper mines, plus a record-setting zinc mine (Kipushi) and a giant platinum-metals project (Platreef) ramping up. The headline Q1 loss was an accounting one-off — a $183M tax settlement — not operations: costs came in below guidance, and the new on-site smelter turns a waste by-product (sulphuric acid, which other miners must buy) into roughly a million dollars a day of extra income.
His stance is simple: copper is going higher, mines that produce for decades are the way to own that, and he'll buy more if an Iran resolution knocks commodity stocks down.
In short: Prior pick (+10%, very volatile) — "you're good with Ivanhoe." A copper name to "take off your screen and look at in 5 years."
Ivanhoe is a copper miner and one of his prior picks (up ~10%, but with wild swings along the way). His advice for nervous holders: "you're good with Ivanhoe" — take it off your screen and just look at it again in five years, since the long-term copper story does the work.
55:36And then Talen, which has been a home-run up 87% since you were last on. Just a quick beat, you mentioned you like US nat gas players. Cheniere, do you continue to hold it? — Yes. What about Ivanhoe? And I'm going to do this for our friend Million in the background because he bought Ivanhoe and he says, you know, at one point I'm up double and it comes down, there's a lot of volatility that comes with owning maybe an Ivanhoe.
In short: Concentrate-crunch exhibit — cut Kamoa-Kakula's 2026 guidance to 290-330kt (from 380-420kt), falling out of the world's top 50 miners by market cap on the cut.
In short: Supply-crack exhibit — cut Kamoa-Kakula's 2026 guidance from 380-420kt to 290-330kt after a seismic event; founder Robert Friedland warns some copper producers have <30 days of acid supply.
Ivanhoe runs one of the world's highest-grade copper mines (Kamoa-Kakula). After an underground earthquake it had to cut how much copper it expects to produce in 2026 by roughly a quarter. Prins uses it as proof that real-world supply keeps shrinking — and its founder is publicly warning that some copper producers are nearly out of the acid they need to operate.
In short: "I just added to my Ivanhoe position today." An add to an existing AIA Portfolio copper holding — no new commentary, just more of it.
Ivanhoe owns the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Congo plus the Platreef and Kipushi projects — it is Polomny's main way of owning the copper shortage he expects as electrification demand outruns new supply. This post adds nothing new to the story: he simply bought more of a position he already holds in the AIA Portfolio. Adding to an existing winner on a dip, rather than hunting a new name, is the quiet version of conviction.
In short: The AIA-newsletter model-portfolio name, described by clues: "probably has one of the best copper assets in the world" (had issues, now straightening out, back to full production — Kamoa-Kakula), "just commissioned… probably the best platinum group mineral asset in the world" (Platreef, started up "in the last month or so"), plus "one of the best zinc assets" (Kipushi), "run by one of the best mining entrepreneurs in history, serially successful" (Friedland). "Stock got bombed out on some bad news. The assets were still there… able to buy on discount." A way to play both copper and PGMs.
Polomny won't name his paid-newsletter pick outright, but he describes it so specifically it can only be Ivanhoe Mines. Ivanhoe was founded by Robert Friedland, a famous mining dealmaker, and owns three standout assets in Africa: a huge copper mine (Kamoa-Kakula) that had operating problems and is getting back to full output, a brand-new platinum-group-metals mine (Platreef) that just switched on, and one of the world's best zinc deposits (Kipushi).
The stock fell hard on bad news even though the mines themselves are fine, so he was able to buy it cheaply. The catch is location — these are in the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Africa, not the safest places, which is the risk you accept for assets this good. He likes that one stock gives him both copper and platinum-group exposure at once.
9:42it's had some issues with, but it's now straightening out the issues and getting it back on full production — but has just commissioned and brought online probably the best platinum group mineral asset in the world currently, and that just started up in the last month or so. Run by one of the best mining entrepreneurs in history, serially successful.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.