| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 24 | $60.62 | $1,455 | 0.06% | $69.13 | $-204 | -12.3% | — |
In short: "If you're willing to take some balance-sheet risk, buy accidental petroleum — Buffett had the courage, maybe you do too." Still buyable below Buffett's average price; the challenge is balance-sheet (the big Anadarko bill, synergies still being realized), part-de-risked by selling gathering/transmission assets to Buffett for another $7B.
Occidental (the auto-transcript's "accidental petroleum") is the higher-risk oil major — the risk being its debt-heavy balance sheet, a legacy of the big, expensive Anadarco acquisition whose cost savings ("synergies") are still being realized rather than banked. Warren Buffett is a large backer, and you can still buy in below his average price.
Some of that debt risk was defused by selling pipeline and gathering assets to Buffett for another $7 billion — that trims future upside but removes financial risk. Rick's framing: "Buffett had the courage to buy it; maybe you do too."
43:28price. — Yep. And the price that Buffett paid matters less than the fact that five years from now the chickens come home to roost in the underinvestment and sustaining capital. Accidental's challenges are balance sheet challenges. they took over Anadarko and that was a big big big big bill and those synergies are in the process of being realized as opposed to having been realized.
In short: Reference — "eat or be eaten." ~1.1M bbl/d (about Cenovus's size), deep Permian plus un-sellable offshore/Oman government arrangements; needs to get bigger or sell. Not stated as a holding.
37:44Oxy is in a position of either eat or be eaten. They do about a million one barrels about the size of Cenovus on a flowing barrel basis. And they need to get bigger or they need to sell. Well, if you look at their business, they effectively have deep Permian where most of their stuff is and they have some other assets particularly places like Oman for example, some offshore assets.
In short: "The Occidental Petroleums of the world" — the hard-asset holdings inside Berkshire-style value that the rotation favors (oil & gas, natural gas, materials).
30:17Buffett, Berkshire big outperformance the last week or so from Berkshire. But they own a lot of companies that control hard assets. The Occidental Petroleums of the world right. So value companies, many of them today control oil and gas, natural gas, materials. And so that's a really colossal underowned part of the market. And so if you have 41 trillion on the NASDAQ 100, which a lot of that's growth stocks, and you got these big IPOs and kind of like a massive overdose in the market on technology, when this rotation comes, you're going to see a
In short: Bill — cheap reference. Chevron tried to buy Anadarko in 2019; Oxy outbid. At ~$40 with Buffett owning ~28%, "you're getting Anadarko and Oxy for about what they offered to buy Anadarko" — a cheap way to frame it amid the coming US-oil consolidation.
56:33" Well, let's run 5 to 10 times. — You think APA is a target? — They should be. They have the offshore and and then uh uh Chevron attempted to buy Ana Darko back in 2019 and Oxy outbid them. So, if you look at today at $40 a share with Buffett owning 28% of Oxy, uh you're getting Anadarko and Oxy uh for about what they offered to to buy Anadarko practically and and and uh to their credit uh Exxon and Chevron have told President Trump that, you know, it's pretty hard for us to justify our shareholders in investing in the oil
In short: Reference — a capital-allocation example. Just sold its chemicals business to Berkshire; it also owns 40% of Western Midstream (~$6.4B). With midstream at multi-year highs, Smead argues Oxy should sell that stake and buy back its own stock or cut its capital structure.
56:12Someone says, "What are we paying attention to?" Rig counts, frat crews, um the production in the US markets. Those are things we're looking at because the question is certain things have already turned south, but when does the actual production number fully go negative, okay, in terms of growth? One thing to add, if I can find an energy company like an Oxy today where they just sold their chemicals business to Bergkshire, and by the way, Oxy owns another business called Western Midstream. WES is the ticker in the US.
In short: One of the oil names he's adding alongside the services into the bearish washout.
Occidental is a large oil producer (and a Buffett holding). It's one of the oil names he's adding alongside the services companies, into the same washed-out, everyone-hates-energy moment.
25:50We've sold 1/3 to 2/3 of our gold and silver miners and we've started to add to the Weatherfords of the world, the OIH oil service names, your Occidental Petroleums. The energy stocks — the bearish sentiment is incredible. Remember, November is the second worst month of the year for crude oil. There's a ton of bears in the CFTC data. To me that's an opportunity to double up and take down some precious metals that a year ago nobody wanted and now are up 150%.
In short: Reference — Warren Buffett's late-2019 OXY deal ($10B preferreds with warrants) was one of the three "seminal" signals (with Sam Zell and Peter Lynch) that turned Smead onto energy. Cautionary too: even smart buyers don't guarantee the outcome (look at the stock since).
6:31his oxy deal where he took 10 billion in preferreds with warrants and um that deal went on so you have three really successful investors do something now very good lesson to learn as an investor does that guarantee your outcomes and your probabilities of success the answer is no that's why they call it investing not knowing yeah not if you look at ocidental Petroleum stock price corre correct so so but here's why I say it if you didn't have an interest in the space from those events as the tumult of 2020 that spring when the Saudis decided to
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.