| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 377 | $20.50 | $7,730 | 0.32% | $11.87 | $3,253 | +72.7% | — |
| RLT | 799 | $20.50 | $18,036 | 0.98% | $12.54 | $6,363 | +63.5% | — |
| Total | 1,176 | $25,766 | 0.57% | $9,616 | +66.3% | — |
In short: Leading the Latin-American answer: "Well, I like Petrobras." Part of the set he says is already being repriced as the region's politics turn — and the geographic point behind it: with the Gulf carrying a higher risk premium, "you want to own assets in areas that are going to be insulated from that geopolitical conflict. They have a larger value in my view."
Petrobras is Brazil's state-controlled oil major, with large deep-water fields off the Brazilian coast. When asked where he'd look in Latin America, Polomny leads with it: "I like Petrobras."
The reasoning is regional rather than company-specific. The world is short oil and the Gulf is unreliable, so producing assets in politically calmer places should be worth more than the market currently pays. He thinks that revaluation has already begun across Latin America — "these are all opportunities and they're being repriced already" — and Brazil's scale makes Petrobras the obvious first stop.
41:39Well, I like Petrobras. I like the fact that we have a changing government in Colombia. So, it's probably worth taking another look at Ecopetrol, Parex, which is there also, GeoPark, these type of companies, okay? What's happening in the Vaca Muerta in Argentina, how that's exploding. Argentina is becoming an increasingly larger and larger oil exporter.
In short: The stated exception to his own dividend rule — "and this is much riskier": Petrobras "has a habit of paying too much dividend because the Brazilian state is the largest shareholder and is rapacious. But they've been so efficient upstream that they are increasing their production and their reserves while making smaller sustaining capital investments than would be the case, and still paying decent dividends." Until two years ago the capital drought "was cannibalizing the company"; drill-bit efficiency now covers what he calls suboptimal capex. "Your risk here is that the political class in Brazil… decides to up the level of theft."
Rick spends the interview arguing that a fat dividend is a warning sign — money paid out instead of spent maintaining the wells. Petrobras is the exception he names, "and this is much riskier."
Brazil's government is the controlling shareholder and, in his word, "rapacious" — it wants dividends, so the company pays what he calls an "outrageous" one. Normally that would hollow the business out, and until about two years ago it was: "the capital drought was cannibalizing the company." What changed is operational: they have become so efficient with the drill bit that they now grow production and reserves while spending less than he would consider optimal, and still pay out.
The risk is the same shareholder that creates the dividend. "Your risk here is that the political class in Brazil looks at this and decides to up the level of theft that's occurring" — though he notes the wrinkle that extracting money via dividends pays outside shareholders too.
38:37So it's important that people understand that there's one company in the world — and this is much riskier — Petrobras, which has a habit of paying too much dividend because the Brazilian state is the largest shareholder and is rapacious. But they've been so efficient upstream that they are increasing their production and their reserves while making smaller sustaining capital investments than would be the case, and still paying decent dividends.
In short: Now sits on Holds/Trims rated H/T with a trim dated 08/03/26 — today (lot 12/31/2025 @ $11.85, marked $19.05, +60.76%). Petrobras has run ~61% from cost and comes off the Buy List into an explicit trim on the same day Haymaker tells readers to raise cash — profit-taking on the deep-value Brazil oil major, not an exit.
Petrobras is Brazil's state-controlled oil giant and a long-time Haymaker favourite, bought at the end of 2025 and now up about 61%. This week it moves onto the hold-or-trim list with a trim actually dated today — meaning some of the position is being sold to lock in the gain. It's the "raise cash" instruction applied to his own book rather than a change in the oil view (he still argues crude is far too cheap and that oil-producer shares are the place to be). Read it as banking part of a big winner, not walking away.
In short: Jain: named among the best-asset major-oil buys ("You can buy Exxon, Total, Petrobras, BP, or PetroChina, et cetera — almost any major oil company looks like a buy as most have great capital discipline").
In short: Quick-hitter. Originally recommended June 2025 ~$12.70; ran +75% to over $20 by March when Haymaker suggested taking profits; since slid to ~$16.45 (~25% off peak) as Brent volatility cooled the trade and the technical picture flipped decisively negative. Fundamentally still executing — Q1 2026 EPS beat handily on record Búzios and Tupi production (even as revenue softened with oil prices) — with a ~10% forward yield and analysts targeting ~$23. Ideally wants a cheaper entry before making it a table-pounding buy as it was in December, but for a play on a muscular snap-back in grossly oversold oil prices it's worthy of a modest buy… or buyback for those who rang the register on the earlier trim.
Petrobras is Brazil's giant state-controlled oil company. Haymaker recommended it a year ago around $12.70; it jumped 75% to over $20 by March, at which point they told readers to take some profit. It has since fallen back to about $16.45 — roughly 25% below its peak — because oil prices cooled and the stock's chart turned decisively weak.
The business is still doing well (record output from its Búzios and Tupi fields drove an earnings beat), and the shares pay a hefty ~10% dividend yield with analysts targeting ~$23. Haymaker would prefer to wait for an even cheaper price before pounding the table on it again. But as a bet that badly oversold oil prices snap back, it's worth a modest new purchase — or a re-buy for anyone who sold some earlier when they suggested trimming.
In short: Performance recap — up "about 32%" in the month since the recommendation; a Brazil play (a "Haymaker favorite over the last two years"). It's "run a lot in a short time," so "a moderate amount of gain harvesting may be in order." A winner update, not a fresh entry.
In short: Income-portfolio note — PBR has declined from $12.70 at the initial recommendation to $11.72; Haymaker reiterated dollar-cost-averaging into it last week and now lifts the target allocation to roughly 1.5% (150 basis points). Add on weakness.
Petrobras is Brazil's state-controlled oil giant, a long-standing Haymaker income holding. The stock has drifted lower (about $12.70 to $11.72), and rather than retreat, Haymaker is leaning in — dollar-cost-averaging (buying gradually over time to lower the average cost) and raising the target position size to about 1.5% of the income portfolio. A deliberate "add on weakness" call.
In short: Brazil oil with a huge dividend — Oct election (Lula out?) + 15% real rates that give the central bank room to cut.
Petrobras is Brazil's state oil company, which pays a very large dividend. His bet has two parts: an October election where left-leaning President Lula could be voted out (market-friendly), and very high interest rates after inflation (~15% "real" rates) that give Brazil's central bank lots of room to cut — both tailwinds for Brazilian stocks.
37:59Real rates in Brazil are 15% after inflation, and the inflation rate is actually very tame, so the central bank has a lot of room to cut next year. So you can buy the EWZ. I love the oil names — Petrobras, for example, get a huge dividend. Commodity-producing countries, hard assets, 2026 — it fits right in. They've got the election and the rate cuts.
In short: One of Brazil's two natural-resource behemoths (with Vale), trading at 4–5× earnings — excluded from the already-cheap Bovespa multiple. David admits "a soft spot for the former" — Petrobras was "an extremely lucrative holding for clients, and personally, a few years back." Deep-value resource cheapness.
Petrobras is Brazil's giant state-influenced oil company. It trades at just 4–5 times earnings — dirt cheap even by Brazil's cheap standards — and it's so big that it's actually excluded when people quote the Bovespa's already-low valuation, so it's a cheap stock inside a cheap market. Hay has a personal "soft spot" for it: it was "an extremely lucrative holding for clients, and personally" a few years back.
The caveat with Petrobras is always politics — the government can interfere with prices and dividends — but at this valuation he treats it as a classic deep-value resource play on the broader Brazil thesis.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.