iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (proxy: long Treasuries)
First duration buy in five years — 5% nominal is fair vs ~2% real growth + 3% inflation and beats equities; a hedge for the expected winter correction, “not out of bullishness.”
In one line: US stocks are in a bear market of at least two years of negative real returns. Devaluation is the only painless exit from debt: Japan has already done it, and Europe will get there through a eurozone crisis. So hold cash, some duration (TIPS), the debasement trade and the healthcare/energy/financials "holy trinity," and use the UK as the correlated hedge against Europe.
A two-year bear market in US equities. The cost of capital is rising, the product-level oil shock is effectively "$200 oil," the market has stalled for three months, the AI narrative is cracking, and a midterm blowout would bring lame-duck gridlock. It "really reminds me of early 2000, early 2001." (2026-SEP-17)
Japan is the solution, not the problem child. It halved the yen, tax receipts outgrew the cost of debt (g > r), and net debt/GDP is down ~50 points since 2011: "the beautiful deleveraging." (2026-SEP-17)
Europe gets there through pain. It has Japan's demography and its China/energy shock, but none of Japan's 2012 window or political unity. Expect a full eurozone debt crisis, with France the weakest link, before the euro devalues. The debt bros are "right, but just in the wrong place." (2026-SEP-17)
Duration is back, a little. The first Treasury buy in five years of zero duration: the 3-year, the long end, and TIPS at ~2.5% real. It's a hedge against the winter correction he expects, not a bullish bet. (insights)
Keep the debasement trade and the holy trinity. Gold, commodities and crypto, plus healthcare, energy and financials, which are the top three sectors at once for the first time. (2026-SEP-17)
The AI narrative is aging out. Mega-IPOs have marked the top, labs are delaying IPOs and quoting profits "ex-training," and some are seeking bailouts. Too big to fail is not too big to lose. (2026-SEP-17)
The product
What it is: Deluard sells independent macro research reports, on the UK, Europe, Japan and secular inflation among others. On X (@VincentDeluard) his pinned tweet links to a free trial, "I think for a month," and he invites DMs for more or for a specific report. He also ran a sector portfolio, the "holy trinity," launched about four years ago. (Grounded in 2026-SEP-17.)
Offering
What it is
How he runs it
Seen in the index
Macro research reports
Thematic country and inflation research
Free trial via the pinned tweet; specific reports shared on request
TLT, TIP, EWU, GLD
"Holy trinity" sector portfolio
Healthcare + energy + financials, built so one leg usually works
Held together rather than rotated; "done superbly" since launch
XLV, XLE, XLF
How it serves retail investors: the research frameworks (r − g debt screen, correlated hedging, the duration re-entry rule) are rerunnable. The trial is free, and he answers messages on X.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock table (when securities are named), talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.