Ex–Goldman Sachs energy analyst (the 2005 "super spike" oil call), partner at Veriten and publisher of the Super-Spiked Substack/videocast — energy-macro themes, pragmatic energy policy and the "energy transition" through a returns-first lens; running synthesis of his episodes with per-transcript breakdowns and a stock index.
The named exhibit in a Canadian oil & gas sector he has been structurally positive on for a decade — "always been a very successful natural gas producer" with its own midstream/takeaway integration; Carney's turn toward pipelines and LNG is upside on top of profitability that already held up under a hostile government.
His one named exception to European majors that "totally caved" to net zero — "I actually always liked Total's strategy" (Patrick Pouyanne): low-carbon investment without pretending to stop being an oil and gas company.
Context, not a stock view — Amin Nasser is the other executive Murti credits with publicly defending the industry in "normal human English"; he treats that willingness as a governance signal about management quality.
Historical context — named with ExxonMobil and Mobil (Ken Derr, Lucio Noto) as the majors that ran the same low-price-era capital discipline; one of the dozen integrateds he picked up at Goldman in 1999.
Context, not a stock view — his 1999–2014 employer and, in his own telling, a necessary condition for the super spike call (the project screen, the J. Aron commodities desk, the BRICs economists, China-based metals analysts). He still uses Goldman's global GDP forecast as the input that would flip Super-Vol back to Super-Spike.
Historical, no current view — the call he is proudest of for working both ways: sell as Amerada Hess fell 85→50, then a double upgrade straight to buy at 50.
Context, not a stock view — Chris Wright's "Bettering Human Lives" report is one of only two examples Murti credits with defending the energy industry in plain human language during 2020–23, versus an industry that hid behind ESG reports.
Historical, no current view — his first big Goldman call (conviction list the day his daughter was born): the base business alone covered the share price, making the Malaysian exploration a free option, which the Kikeh discovery cashed.
Historical context — Lee Raymond's ExxonMobil is his template for the strategy that was right in the $15–$20 era (restructure, cut cost, stay disciplined), and the cautionary tale for how a fifteen-year trough consensus blinds an industry to the turn.
In one line: This is Super-Vol, not Super-Spike — ~1 mb/d of oil demand growth that available supply can meet, wrapped in age-of-drones geopolitics, so the regime is structural volatility around a range ("we will at times test 50, we will at times test 100") rather than a second super cycle; fade the extremes, own businesses that clear a through-cycle returns bar, and note the spike has already happened downstream in refining.
Super-Vol is the call, and he has named its off-switch. Two triggers would flip it back to a super spike: global GDP back above 4% (which he ties mechanically to 1.5 mb/d of oil demand growth, using Goldman's forecasts as the source) and a genuine supply disappointment like 25 years ago. Neither is visible — "demand is a surprise on the upside, supply surprise on the downside. Neither of those two things are we seeing yet."
Demand grows ~1 mb/d, and supply can meet it. He rejects peak oil demand outright but is "also not super bulls." US lower-48 crude is growing 300 kb/d off budgets set at ~$60 and not raised since the war; add Canada, Latin America (Vaca Muerta) and Middle East expansion (Iraq, eventually Saudi/UAE). A million barrels a day is "the over/under of what can be met."
Volatility is the regime, not the exception. In an "Age of Drones," ongoing turmoil is more likely than stable peace or stable war; the Strait "will be open and it'll be closed and it'll be open and it'll be closed many, many times." Reshoring, China's manufacturing overcapacity and the unwinding post-war order add to it.
The spike already happened — in refining. The Gulf Coast 3-2-1 crack is $64/bbl against a normal $20–30, and diesel cracks have topped $100 on individual days. Drones hit refineries (Ukraine into Russia, "a thousand kilometers away") more durably than fields, and nobody wants to add refining capacity: "as tight of an area as exists in the energy markets today."
Watch the hidden marginal actor.China cutting imports from 12 to ~7 mb/d is "as big a factor as any" for why crude never reached $150–200 — and is "completely unsustainable," though he refuses to time the reversal. The mirror image is the downside cushion: Chinese and global SPR rebuilding into any $50–60 pullback. Meanwhile the US SPR sits at a multi-decade low with 4 mb/d of Canadian heavy as the structural dependency nobody mentions.
Canada is his standing constructive sector. Positive for a decade, on profitability that held up under a hostile government; the oil sands integrateds, Tourmaline (gas with its own midstream/takeaway), and the Duvernay/Clearwater/Montney. Carney's shift off Glasgow-alliance net zero toward pipelines and infrastructure is unpriced optionality; LNG export capacity is the big unlock, since Canadian gas is "even more stranded" than US gas.
Returns on capital peak before the commodity does. His own biggest regret: sector profitability topped at ~$60 oil in 2007 and by 2012 returns at $100 oil were "zero difference" from $20 oil in 2004 — the commodity call was right and the equity overweight was wrong. Judge the business through the cycle, not the price forecast.
"Obliterating peak oil demand" and the "lucky 1 billion." No country organises its economy around CO2; reliability, availability and affordability rule. India at rich-country consumption would need 44.5 mb/d of imports — which is simultaneously why oil demand doesn't peak and why EVs, LNG trucking and battery supply chains get built.
Pro-industry, returns-first policy — and speak human. He faults nearly the whole industry for hiding behind ESG reports in 2020–23; the exceptions he names are Aramco's Amin Nasser, Liberty Energy's Chris Wright ("Bettering Human Lives"), and Total's strategy under Patrick Pouyanne. Keep US–Canada energy integration out of trade fights and the SPR as full as possible.
Natural gas is the through-theme he under-called — and the play is midstream/downstream. In his EP227 (2026-SEP-12) self-scorecard he names gas as the "super fuel" running under every mega theme, admits he pushed back on the oil glut but not the LNG glut, and calls "peak global gas demand" even more ridiculous than peak oil demand; shale producers have been "one of the least exciting ways to play natural gas," LNG and pipelines the real opportunity, with oil services leading the move into distributed power. He also dismisses the 2027 "4–6 mb/d oil glut" forecasts in advance.
Reframe sustainability as onshoring. Climate action that shuts in domestic oil, gas, coal, copper, critical minerals or refining and ships the jobs to China "has been bad for the climate"; the fix is maximum production and processing at home and with friends (Canada, Australia) — a critique of the current administration's trade posture too.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its talking points and the saved transcript. Newest first.