In one line: it's not inflation, it's trust. Rising US yields are a credibility premium on a 6% deficit at full employment, so the Fed and Treasury must show "an adult in the room" and a committed fiscal path. Meanwhile embedded options, in mortgage bonds and in ETF structures, are where the hidden convexity risk sits.
Trust over the numbers. Nominal yields are up 150bp while 10-year breakevens sit at their 2.34–2.35% average, so the market is not pricing inflation; it is pricing the US as a going concern. The Fed should have hiked 50 "one and done" and weaned markets off forward guidance cold turkey (2026-SEP-17).
Fiscal path, not fiscal perfection. His predicted fixes: uncap Social Security, raise the retirement age, means-test SS/Medicare, end step-up basis, and revive a Simpson-Bowles-type plan. MMT failed because it relied on politicians tightening when it counts (2026-SEP-17).
Credit vs equity on AI. Hyperscaler (Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle) bonds are "money good" because their core businesses cover the coupons. Their stocks, and private AI labs like Anthropic, carry the build-out risk (Global Crossing redux). Their price-insensitive borrowing competes with the Treasury and pushes rates up (2026-SEP-17).
MBS = covered call. After recouponing, more of the mortgage index sits near the strike, so it is more negatively convex, and a flattening curve widens spreads (~95→110bp). Index MBS ETFs fall fast, then track Treasuries (2026-SEP-17).
Know your ETF. Avoid holding daily-reset leverage (volatility drag), check 10%+ yields for return of capital, and watch the liquidity mismatch in derivative/illiquid ETFs if volatility spikes (2026-SEP-17).
Money. Bitcoin goes to zero ("an active war against a sovereign state"). USD stablecoins are good because they create Treasury demand, and no rival currency is liquid enough to replace the dollar: "the cleanest dirty shirt" (2026-SEP-17).
Transcripts
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