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Mark Newton — research hub

Mark Newton, CMT — Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat (Tom Lee's shop). 30 years buy- and sell-side; price action, momentum, breadth, sentiment, seasonality and cycles across US indices, sectors, commodities, rates, FX and crypto, on a 3–6 week tactical horizon.
Sections: stock index · overall thesis · the product · appearances. Last updated 2026-AUG-22.

Stock & name index

▲ Positive

TickerNameCurrent thesisResearchSeen inTotal $k
BACBank of AmericaOne of three lenders he cites as evidence the bank move is broadening past the trading desks — "starting to push higher, breakout and make good headway" over the last year. As a deposit-funded lender it is the purer beneficiary of the widening short-to-long rate spread.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
BKBank of New York MellonCustody bank named alongside BAC and C in the second, broader leg of the financials recovery. Unusually rate-sensitive through the large client cash balances it holds, so a steeper curve feeds straight through; the chart breakout is his confirmation.QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15
CCitigroupThird of the lenders breaking out as the curve steepened — part of his evidence that "the banks have just started to come back to life" rather than only the capital-markets names. Held inside the sector overweight.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
EWYiShares MSCI South Korea ETFHis preferred emerging market. Memory chips — the last part of tech to break and now "broken back out versus equal weighted technology" — dominate the index, and "it's obviously helped the South Korean ETF as well, the EWY." Second leg is a dollar that bounces then rolls over into next year. Preferred over Latin America: "I would much more be apt to follow South Korea."QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15
GSGoldman SachsThe first leg of the financials move: "initially, it was more of the capital markets, the investment banks, the Goldman Sachs and the Morgan Stanleys." Led rather than newly broke out, but sits inside a sector he is overweight and "very encouraged actually about."QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
JPMJPMorgan ChaseThe host's prompt for the financials question — at/near all-time highs, market cap approaching $1trn, +13% on the year — answered flatly: "I'm overweight the financials. I think they do [keep going]." A sector call carried by its largest constituent rather than a stock-specific argument.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
MSMorgan StanleyPaired with Goldman as the capital-markets leadership that started the sector's recovery before it broadened into the lenders. Sector-level view: overweight financials on a growth-driven curve steepening.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq 100)No near-term concerns, but June's all-time highs (~27,100 composite / ~30,700 NDX) act as short-term resistance and should stall the rally. Intermediate-term constructive — the decline came apart one group at a time (software, then semi-cap, then memory) and has repaired in the same order, so the instruction is to buy dips rather than chase.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF (S&P 500)Bullish into year-end with an 8,000 S&P target (~7,800 at the time), but "not above 7,900 right away" — weekly RSI only now nearing overbought while the daily is stretched, and three headwinds (WTI to 100, the 10-year toward 5%, tech at resistance) force "backing and filling" from late August into October. The October–November pullback is "probably going to be one of the better buying opportunities we've seen throughout the entire 4-year cycle."QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15
UUPInvesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (DXY)Tactical long only. The dollar index "is very close to bottoming in the short run" and can reach DXY 102.5 — but with the yen strengthening on a likely September BOJ hike, the gains have to come from "pretty good weakness in the euro and pound sterling." Thereafter "the dollar is going to start to roll over probably into next year," which is what makes the EM rotation actionable.QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15
XLFFinancial Select Sector SPDR (financials)"I'm overweight the financials." Warsh's removal of forward guidance anchors the front end while long yields press up, steepening the curve "pretty dramatically" — banks borrow short and lend long, so net interest margins widen. Crucially the steepening is partly growth-driven, not just term premium, which is the good version for banks; 2013's taper tantrum and post-2016 are the analogues.QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15
XLVHealth Care Select Sector SPDR (healthcare)Broke out above almost a three-year relative downtrend versus the S&P after years of drug-pricing and ACA-subsidy pressure; the confirmation is internal breadth — biotech, pharma and HMOs moving together. One of his two sector overweights.QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15

► Neutral / referenced

TickerNameCurrent thesisResearchSeen inTotal $k
ADBEAdobeHost's example of the AI-disrupted software cohort. Group-level read only: the software deterioration "has since bottomed" and those names have started to push off the lows, ahead of semis and memory in the recovery sequence.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
EWZiShares MSCI Brazil ETFDowngraded to wait-and-see. "Some of the political situation in Brazil has caused… the Brazilian stock market to start to roll over a little bit" after a strong first half — a relative trend that has turned, so step aside rather than fade it.QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15
FXIiShares China Large-Cap ETF (China)A patient laggard trade, not a current position. China "has been a little bit of the laggard this year"; he would "look for an eventual further bounce out of China at a time when it really has lagged pretty sharply," with a dollar that rolls over into next year as the trigger. South Korea ranks ahead of it today.QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15
FXYInvesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (yen)Yen strength first, weakness after. A September BOJ hike at ~75% odds plus coordinated intervention takes dollar-yen down to ~150, "and thereafter, it's going to be right to sell the yen again" — gradualism after decades of deflation returns dollar-yen to 175–180. The bigger point is the flow: "a huge rate repatriation theme… it really has global implications" as Japanese savings come home.QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15
GLDSPDR Gold Shares (gold)Two-sided: August–October seasonality and June cycle lows can carry gold to ~4,600, then "sort of a final shoe to drop" as real rates sit near former highs. He refuses the first bounce — "I'm much more of a buyer on weakness" — and would be "a much bigger buyer" on September weakness for a strong 2027. The January RSI-90 top plus late-arriving retail enthusiasm called the 5,000 → 3,500 bust; "eventually it'll be time to own gold again. I can't say it just yet that we're there."QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15
GOOGLAlphabet (Google)His illustration of the one thing investors should actually watch — AI capex scale. Google is "already spending over 200 billion on CapEx" while raising another "25, 30 billion": "these are extraordinary numbers. This isn't going away anytime soon." But the verdict is not bearish — "I don't sense that it's a bubble… almost in a time like the late '90s" — with 2028–2030, not now, as the window he'd worry about.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
ILFiShares Latin America 40 ETFNamed directly as the vehicle rolling over on Brazilian politics. A first-half leadership region demoted to "still sort of a wait-and-see"; within emerging markets his preference has rotated to South Korea now and China later.QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15
MSFTMicrosoftNamed by the host among the software names "slaughtered" on AI-disruption fear. Newton answered at group level: software deteriorated first, late last year, and "has since bottomed. We've seen software start to push off the lows" — the first of tech's three legs to repair. No stock-specific view.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
ORCLOracleThird of the host's software examples. Same group-level observation — software fell first and repaired first, before semi-cap equipment and then memory, and "one by one all of these areas have stabilized." No individual view offered.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
RYRoyal Bank of CanadaRaised by the Toronto-based host as Canada's JPMorgan analogue — largest domestic bank, +20–25% on the year, at all-time highs. Newton answered on the US sector rather than the name; his steepener thesis is framed around Fed policy and the US curve, so no RY-specific view is attributed.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
SLViShares Silver Trust (silver)Handled identically to gold — buy September weakness for 2027, don't chase the bounce. New highs are plausible between October this year and autumn next, "but the momentum is not yet turned enough to make me real bullish in the short-term."QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15
SNDKSanDisk (memory)The host's illustration of memory's amplitude (2400 → 1000 → ~1300, still +450% on the year); Newton gave no stock-level view. His group call is mildly constructive — "the entire memory space has broken back out versus equal weighted technology… it's not going to be a straight shot back to the highs but I think it will take time."QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
TSLATeslaConsumer anecdote, not an investment view: asked what he pays for gas, "I'm a Tesla owner and so it's all EV for me… about 15 bucks a month if that," with ~280 miles of range and charging "never really a problem" in the US. He recommends the car, not the stock.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15
USOUnited States Oil Fund (WTI crude)An explicit two-way path and one of his three equity headwinds: $82 up to ~$100 over one-to-two months, then back to ~$50 by year end. The classification does the work — "any sort of move in crude is 100% supply shock. I don't sense it is going to prove to be long-lasting" once a deal reopens the strait. If it plays out, the inflation scare fades, the Fed doesn't hike, and the rate headwind lifts into his October–November buying window.QT · SA · STK2026-AUG-15

▼ Negative

TickerNameCurrent thesisResearchSeen inTotal $k
BTCBitcoin"This is a crypto winter… I'm not a fan in the short-term." From ~63,000 he expects a retest of the 57k prior lows, an undercut to ~52k and "probably a maximum of 40,000" — monthly momentum still very negative, liquidity tightening as long rates rise, positioning poor, and the Clarity Act unlikely before the midterms. But it's a timing call: a bottom "in about 2 months," then "a pretty sharp rally between now and next summer… this probably continues into 2028," and the flush is "really something you want to buy into."QT · STK2026-AUG-15
EthereumEthereumSame crypto-winter framework with slightly less downside — from ~1,885 to about 1,500, and unlike Bitcoin "it might not make a new low." A final flush over one-to-two months for long-term investors to buy, ahead of a rally he expects to run into 2028.2026-AUG-15
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (long Treasuries)One of his three headwinds — long yields press back up with the 10-year getting "close to 5%," which is a falling price for long Treasuries. Notably not an inflation call ("it's not necessarily that inflation's going to roar back"; breakevens "plummeting"): the drivers are crude at 100 lifting term premium, better-than-expected growth, and Warsh dropping forward guidance so the front end anchors while the long end drifts. Mortgage rates at 6.7% are the real-economy cost.QT · SA · STK · FA2026-AUG-15

Overall thesis

In one line: The trend is up and the internals now confirm it — but the next eight weeks are the wrong entry, and the October–November pullback is the trade. Newton is a price-first technician on a stated 3–6 week tactical horizon, and his method is deliberately falsifiable: use technicals "to understand exactly where we are and where we could go and where you're wrong." Every call carries a level. On the index he is bullish with an 8,000 S&P target (~7,800 at the time) while refusing the entry — "I don't suspect that we can get up above 7,900 right away" — because weekly RSI is only now nearing overbought while the daily is stretched, and three headwinds are coming: WTI back to $100, the 10-year toward 5%, and tech at its June highs (27,100 composite / 30,700 NDX). What makes him constructive underneath is breadth: stocks above their 200-day back to ~60% from ~40% in March, and the Russell 3000 advance-decline line above its 2021 peak — "it's not just tech." Leadership he wants: financials ("I'm overweight"), on a curve steepening that Warsh's abandonment of forward guidance produced and that is partly growth-driven, plus healthcare, which has broken a near-three-year relative downtrend versus the S&P across biotech, pharma and HMOs. Elsewhere he is patient rather than negative: gold and silver can rally to ~4,600 then get "a final shoe to drop," so he wants September weakness to buy for a strong 2027; Bitcoin is in a crypto winter with a flush to ~52k (max 40k) still to come before a ~2-month bottom and a rally into 2028; crude spikes to 100 then falls to ~$50 because "any sort of move in crude is 100% supply shock"; the dollar bounces to DXY 102.5 and then rolls over, which routes his EM preference to South Korea over Latin America. On AI: "I don't sense that it's a bubble… almost in a time like the late '90s" — the window he would worry about is 2028–2030, not now. Based on one processed appearance (2026-AUG-15).

The product — Fundstrat / fundstratdirect.com

What it is: Fundstrat's retail-facing research subscription, fundstratdirect.com (the institutional side is plain fundstrat.com). Newton is Head of Technical Strategy; the firm was founded by Tom Lee, its head of research. The retail bundle is a daily research habit rather than an alerts service: Newton records "technical analysis videos every day, about 7 to 10 minutes each day, along with a lengthy report," alongside Tom Lee's videos and commentary, a dedicated crypto team and a policy analyst — "we're pretty well rounded in how we approach markets." Institutions get in-person coverage: "we set up face-to-face meetings and try to educate you once a month and do lots of calls and explain our views as to what we see." He also posts "once or twice a day" on X as Mark Newton CMT, and the show offered a QR code for a couple of free weeks of the full research.

Grounded in his own description of the offering at the close of 2026-AUG-15 (38:03–39:08).

OfferingWhat it isHow he runs itSeen in the index
Daily technical videoA 7–10 minute recorded read of the tape, published every trading day.Newton's own segment — price, momentum, breadth, sentiment, seasonality and cycles across indices, sectors, commodities, rates, FX and crypto, on a 3–6 week horizon.The whole index: SPY, QQQ, XLF, XLV, GLD, BTC, TLT…
The written report"A lengthy report" accompanying the daily video.Where the levels live — the numbers he quotes off-the-cuff on air (7,900 / 8,000, 27,100 / 30,700, 4,600, DXY 102.5, BTC 52k) come from this work.Every level cited on the dated page
Tom Lee's macro researchThe firm's fundamental, top-down side — inflation, economic data, "outside the box esoteric thinking on markets."Deliberately separate from Newton's process and on a longer horizon: "that's certainly a lot longer-term… versus my mind, which is a little more tactical."Cited as the contrast, not the input
Crypto teamDedicated digital-asset coverage inside the same subscription.Newton runs his own technical view on it — and notes it can diverge from the house: "I know Tom Lee's very bullish on Bitcoin," while Newton is negative near-term.BTC, Ethereum
Policy analyst"A policy guy that looks at almost everything" — Washington and regulatory read-through.Feeds the non-technical catalysts he prices in, e.g. the Clarity Act being "probably unlikely to be signed before the midterm election."BTC (crypto market structure)
Institutional coverageDirect access for institutional clients."Face-to-face meetings… once a month and lots of calls" explaining the house views. "A lot of institutions ask me about the dollar" is a live example of what those conversations surface.UUP, FXY
Free surfaceX posts and interviews like this one; a QR-code trial of "a couple weeks free of all of our research.""I do post probably once or twice a day, not often" — @MarkNewtonCMT.

How it serves retail investors:

Appearances

One dated page per appearance — each has its full stock table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.

DateTitleShowTranscriptActionable insights
2026-AUG-15 Where is the S&P and Nasdaq going into year end? Jimmy Connor (YouTube, Toronto) ▶ YouTube transcript actionable insights

To process — backlog

Appearances not yet processed — newest first. None queued yet.


For personal study — not investment advice.