Paul Sankey · lead analyst & president, Sankey Research · began at the International Energy Agency; ranked the #1 oil & gas analyst by Institutional Investor three years running, covering the oil majors and refiners.
The real crisis: distillate at the lowest level ever observed, ~$250/bbl, refiners at 97–98%, record tanker rates blocking imports, Russia’s export ban. Another 20–30%+ upside in a cold winter.
Tactical trade: flip the usual Labor-Day short and go long oil through December 5 into the winter inventory build; oils to outperform the S&P for six or seven more weeks. The China collar (~$80 floor, ~$100+ cap) is the brake.
Long leg of a long Shell / short Exxon trade on Kalshi’s Venezuela-agreement market: Shell at 62% is “quite rightly priced” (though mostly into the gas). A contract view, not a stock call.
“Very bullish” even at ~$400: diesel at ~$250/bbl with US distillate at tank bottoms makes refiner profits “absolutely enormous.” The risk is a pre-midterm oil-product export ban or a grab at the cash pile.
Host-raised tanker-freight futures ETF (~+3,600% YTD). Sankey hadn’t looked at it, but confirms tanker rates are at unprecedented levels with Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb shut.
Holds the bigger Venezuela expropriation award and “Ryan Lance isn’t going to back down”; Chevron buying Conoco would make the claim go away. A legal-claim reference.
“Has the ear of the president,” lobbying with Burgum and Wright against a product export ban; also the hypothetical ConocoPhillips acquirer. No stock call.
Short leg of a long Shell / short Exxon trade on Kalshi’s Venezuela-agreement market: Exxon “don’t back off their legal position” on its expropriation award, so it won’t sign. A contract view, not a stock call.
In one line: A veteran oil-majors and refiners analyst who says the 2026 oil shock is at heart a diesel crisis. US distillate is at tank bottoms (~$250/bbl), refiners are maxed at 97–98% utilization, and record tanker rates block imports, while supply shocks stack up (Saudi East-West pipeline, Libya, Russia's diesel export ban, Europe's Jan-2027 Russian-LNG cutoff). He is very bullish for the next two months: long oil to December 5, oils over the S&P, and very bullish Valero, with a pre-midterm product export ban as the key risk. A China collar (~$80–$100+) brackets crude, and demand destruction starts around $4.50 gasoline / $120–130 Brent.
Products lead crude. US distillate inventory is the lowest ever observed, so diesel has "gone exponential" to ~$250/bbl with 20–30%+ upside in a cold winter. Demand is inelastic (harvest, jet travel, diesel-intense AI construction), and there is no incremental supply anywhere (2026-SEP-15).
Refining is the bottleneck, and the winner. US refiners run 17 mb/d at 97–98%, but turnaround season and accident risk loom. Refiners' profits will be "absolutely enormous," so he is very bullish Valero even at $400. The threats are political: an oil-product export ban or a windfall grab. Burgum, Wright and Chevron are lobbying against intervention.
Physical tightness beats the screen. Dated Brent, Oman and Shanghai crude trade well above futures Brent. Tanker rates are at records with Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb shut, and the Saudi outage runs 4–6 weeks (Kpler), not "a few days."
The China collar. China buys below ~$80 Brent and backs off near ~$100+. Its marginal barrel is Iranian, and Saudi replacements are disrupted, so he doubts China stops buying at $107.
Seasonal trade flipped. Instead of shorting oil at Labor Day, go long through December 5 (New York's "first snow") and let oils outperform the S&P for six or seven weeks, then reassess.
Macro: the Fed is hiking into a supply shock. CPI and PCE barely capture diesel, so economists underrate it. Demand destruction starts around $4.50 gasoline / $120–130 Brent. Venezuela (~1 mb/d, displacing Canadian heavy) is "a sideshow."
The product
From his own description in the 2026-SEP-15 appearance (40:10–40:54).
What it is:Sankey Research is Paul Sankey's firm. The written research is "an institutional product," done "for major fund managers, hedge fund managers, big companies, consultancies," with examples viewable at sankeyresearch.com. Alongside it runs a free Sankey Research YouTube channel, currently updated "about weekly."
Offering
What it is
How he runs it
Seen in the index
Written research
Institutional oil & gas research notes
Paid, for fund managers, hedge funds, companies and consultancies; samples on sankeyresearch.com. Recent notes: diesel's impact on CPI/PPI/PCE; China's marginal barrel
Diesel, Oil, VLO
YouTube channel
Free video market updates
"Update when I'm in a good mood," roughly weekly right now; e.g. China re-entering the import market
Oil (China collar)
How it serves retail investors: the paid research isn't aimed at retail; the free YouTube channel and guest appearances are the retail-accessible window into his institutional oil calls.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.