In short: Brown best-stocks energy name (E&P). "ConocoPhillips, Chevron's on the list" — with WTI back above $100 and inflation expectations rising, "this is your only hedge against an oil price spike."
In short: Holds the bigger Venezuela expropriation award: "they're owed more and Ryan Lance isn't going to back down." He floats that "Chevron buying ConocoPhillips would actually solve the ConocoPhillips problem" by making the legal settlement go away. A legal-claim reference, no stock call.
22:50But Exxon doesn't just walk away from that stuff it's like yeah they'll just wait for the Democrats if that's what it takes and ConocoPhillips settlement is bigger so they're owed more and Ryan Lance isn't going to back down on his one either. So you're in a situation you could argue that Chevron buying ConocoPhillips would actually solve the ConocoPhillips problem, but I think it would make the legal settlement Conoco go away.
In short: Named by Wapner in the day's 52-week-high roll call alongside Valero and Marathon, off the Global Energy ETF's all-time high and the XOP's best level since June 2015. Terranova's cover-all: "I think you stay with the refiners, and collectively just the theme of commodities is a very strong one right now… the commodity trade is probably arguably the strongest trade in the market."
In short: Named only in the quoted Venezuela report — ConocoPhillips has likewise not returned; the deals signed so far are with service providers and smaller US operators willing to take the risk.
In short: One of the names Terranova read out as he took his ETF's energy weight to 10% ("probably 3×" the sector's index weight) at the end of July — "we're across the board getting very aggressive." The setup he likes: nobody trusts energy, "people think energy is going right back to 65," and longs got pushed to the sidelines by repeated "we've got a deal" headlines.
ConocoPhillips is a large US oil and gas producer, and one of the names Joe Terranova read out as he took his ETF's energy weight to 10% — roughly three times energy's 3.2% share of the S&P 500. The reason he bought is contrarian rather than fundamental: repeated "we're getting a deal" headlines around the Middle East drove investors to sell energy and stand aside, so when no deal arrived there was almost nobody left holding it. Energy was the day's best sector, up 3.6%.
In short: Owned (US portfolio). "Such a great picture of where we're going to end up" — the pure-upstream supermajor template after the Phillips 66 spin (no downstream), running Doug Terreson's playbook at 2M bbl/d. The scale that defines supermajor status.
ConocoPhillips is Smead's US pick and, in his words, "a great picture of where we're going to end up." Years ago it spun off its refining/pipeline arm (that became Phillips 66), leaving Conoco as a pure "upstream" company — one that only pumps oil and gas, with no downstream refining. Smead thinks pure upstream earns the best returns, and Conoco is the one true supermajor built that way, producing about 2 million barrels a day — the scale that defines the top tier. He sees the whole industry consolidating toward a handful of players that look like Conoco.
35:19Conoco is just such a great picture of where we're going to end up in all the super majors, okay? As some of your listeners may or may not know, they got rid of Phillips 66. They spun that out, okay? So, the I'll call it any midstreamer or refinery assets went with that. Shout out to Doug Terrason, who's on the board at Phillips 66.
In short: Named only as the historical Eagle Ford operator — "it was Marathon was the operator that subsequently became Conoco." Baytex's non-op position meant US cash-calls jerked its Canadian capital programs around; part of the case to exit. Operator reference, not a stance.
16:59This separates and clearly distinguishes us from the two. The second is the non-operated position that I spoke to that had been a part of the company since 2014. And it really moved the capital programs around. What do I mean by that? Is when we were cash called from the USA. And so it was Marathon was the operator that subsequently became Conoco.
In short: Grouped with the well-run US majors that paid their dividend through COVID's negative oil price (unlike the Europeans); "same vein" as Exxon/Chevron. A serial consolidator (it bought Concho).
ConocoPhillips is grouped with the well-run American oil majors that, unlike their European counterparts, never cut their dividends even during COVID's negative oil prices — a sign of financial strength. It's also a serial acquirer (it bought Concho Resources).
He lumps it in the "same vein" as Exxon and Chevron as a quality name, but doesn't single it out as his current top choice — that's Exxon.
59:40If you go to COVID, the price of oil went negative. Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and even the high-quality large-cap E&Ps paid that dividend. The Europeans integrateds, they weren't built for it. — What do you mean? So, think about Shell, BP, Total, Repsol, Eni. They cut dividends during COVID. — not as well-run as the Americans.
In short: Up ~15% since the war began, near all-time highs at ~20× earnings — another late, elevated "obvious trade" she'd avoid in favor of cheaper, higher-yielding EC.
Same story as Chevron — ConocoPhillips is up ~15% since the war began and trades near all-time highs at about 20× earnings. Prins groups it with the "obvious trades at the top of the obvious time" and would rather own cheaper, higher-yielding Ecopetrol instead.
In short: Cole — owned (US). Named alongside APA as the US side of the book; more attractively priced than the Canadian oil-sands names after their two-year "asset-life" re-rate.
46:17Um but I say that that's our general mo versus if you look on our US side today. Um like you know for example we own APA we own conical Phillips etc. Um those are more attractively priced relative to the Canadian assets were so there's been kind of a two-year move. It's like all of Wall Street said oh hey there's this thing called asset life and they all started gravitating.
In short: Owned (US). Used to produce in Venezuela before its operations were seized; also produces in Canada. Skeptical that a quick reentry is easy — seized capital assets get ruined or sold off, so overnight restarts "aren't how it works." Popped Monday on the Venezuela headline, gave it all back by mid-week.
Conoco is Smead's owned US producer. It used to operate in Venezuela before its assets were seized, so when the market bid up Conoco and Chevron on hopes of a Venezuela reentry, Smead was skeptical: seized facilities get ruined or sold off, and you can't just flip production back on overnight. The pop faded within days — proving his point that following the headline was a losing trade.
36:00And then what happened Tuesday? Pretty much whatever they gained on Tuesday or g gained on Monday, they lost Tuesday. And look at today, it's all gone. Okay. And so I say that because did it did you have to dream at all to think that Chevron was going to produce maybe some more oil in Venezuela? No. Like no, everybody with a cell phone could have told you that. Okay.
In short: Owned (US portfolio). A pure E&P upstream major — produces better returns than integrated peers. Doug Terreson's Can't Deny It argues upstream, midstream and downstream "have no business being together"; Conoco is the proof. "Diversification is for people who don't want to care."
38:19compared to other upstream dominant businesses except CNQ has done exceptionally well over the long term and the argument for integration is that when one side of your business is doing poorly, you can lean on the other side and it reduces the volatility, the downside. That's diversification is what you're talking about.
In short: Owned (US portfolio). "That's what the Canadian majors should look like at the end of the day" — a pure E&P, out of the refinery business, producing the highest returns in the space. The template for the whole industry.
Conoco is Smead's US energy holding and, more importantly, his template for what a great oil company looks like: a pure "upstream" producer that only pumps oil and gas, with no low-return refineries or pipelines attached. Staying focused is why it earns the best returns in the business — and it's what he thinks the sprawling Canadian majors should become.
57:02get more focused to give you the right Paradigm for these Canadian Majors uh kico Phillips that's what they should look like at the end of the day we own kico on the US side kico is an enp solely focus on that and what has it been doing producing the highest returns in the space gets out at the refinery business and we will get back to um sovis in propix let's squeeze in one more kind of not an energy stock but it's interesting that you own it and it's in the new right now it's a question about cushard this one coming
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