| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 2 | $192.59 | $385 | 0.02% | $176.40 | $32 | +9.2% | — |
In short: Same illustration, the deepest drawdown of the four: −50.4% on "Why pay a consultant when you can just ask AI?", then +44% from its lows. No rating.
In short: SOLD IN FULL — "one of our rare full sells on this name," exited at $178.26 against a $178.31 cost (−0.03%) on 09/08/2026, and added to the published Sells ledger. It is introduced as a failure: "among the less than stellar suggestions this newsletter offered up this year was one of the planet's largest and most profitable IT consulting firms, Accenture (ACN). Yet, despite its many strengths, it did a face-plant almost right out of the gate. We issued our endorsement on May 8th when it was trading at $178 and change. About six weeks later, it had crashed to $125" — "that prior shellacking didn't prevent another 30% value evaporation… we are, understandably, embarrassed when they occur to our showcase names." Three errors are named. The anchoring error: "we thought plenty of adverse news was priced in at $178. At that point, it had already plunged from $385. As the old Wall Street saying goes, we were highly confident it would not implode by another $200 points. (Stocks, unlike futures contracts, can't trade below zero.)" The technical error: "making this situation worse, we ignored the bad omen from the clear support break [ACN] produced when it decisively broke below $250. (As we have often pointed out, violations of support levels are as meaningful as breaking above multi-year resistance). Our only defense in this regard is that it had already melted by nearly 30% after that support was taken out." And the averaging error: "piling poor judgment on poor judgment, we didn't recommend averaging in as we often do when this type of cliff dive happens. This was despite the fact that ACN was trading at truly garage-sale prices when it hit nine times earnings." The sell is a business call, made against the valuation, not with it: "notwithstanding the hefty revival, it remains a very cheap stock… admittedly, we don't like exiting these deep-value situations — especially for what has long been an outstanding company — but our confidence level in it retaining that hallowed status is eroding." The disconfirming evidence is pricing power: "our growing unease was amplified by a recent Financial Times article which asserted, with factual back-up, that its customer base is growing more and more restless. Defections seem manageable at this point, but what concerns us is that a large number apparently are demanding price concessions to stick with ACN. Ironically, searching on the issue with Google's AI app, Gemini, verifies this risk." And the exit doubles as cash-raising: "it's now at least a push. That's a big relief after its disastrous start, so we're inclined to raise some cash on a pain-free basis. We continue to worry the market overall is facing intensifying head-winds… we're entering hurricane season. Market history is rife with examples that this is not just a meteorological phenomenon. An upcoming mid-term election that has the very real potential to be messy in the extreme is another reason to raise some cash… while the raising's good."
Accenture is the world's largest technology-consulting firm: companies hire it to plan, build and run big software projects, and lately to actually install AI into their operations. Haymaker recommended it in May at about $178, on the argument that it was a dominant, highly profitable business that the market had wrongly written off as an AI casualty. Within six weeks it fell to $125 — roughly another 30% — before recovering all the way back. This post closes the position at $178.26, a fraction below the $178.31 cost. In Hay's own words, "it's now at least a push."
What makes the section worth reading is that he lists what he got wrong rather than what the market got wrong. First, he treated the fall that had already happened (from $385 to $178) as evidence the downside was used up — the joke he makes at his own expense is that he was "highly confident it would not implode by another $200 points" because shares cannot go below zero. Second, he broke his own chart rule. Haymaker's standing view is that a stock decisively falling through a price level it has repeatedly bounced off — a support break — is exactly as informative as a stock breaking above a long-standing ceiling; ACN did that at $250 and he bought anyway. Third, when the stock did collapse he failed to do the thing he usually does after a crash, which is add to the position in stages ("averaging in"), even though ACN got down to nine times earnings.
The reason he is selling now is not the loss and not the chart — he says plainly that the stock is still cheap and that he dislikes abandoning genuine bargains. It is a change in what the business looks like. A Financial Times report, which he says was backed by facts and which he double-checked using Google's Gemini, found that Accenture's clients are getting restless: not many are leaving, but a large number are demanding discounts to stay. That is the more damaging of the two problems, because a consultancy that has to cut prices to keep customers is losing the thing that justified paying up for it — pricing power — and no multiple protects you from that.
There is also a portfolio reason. Because the position came back to breakeven, selling costs nothing, and he wants cash: he expects rougher markets, notes that autumn (literal "hurricane season") has a long history of market trouble, and points at a US mid-term election he thinks could be "messy in the extreme." His phrase for it is raising cash "while the raising's good."
In short: ★ Today's rating change — moved off the Buy List onto Holds/Trims, rated H (lot 05/08/2026 @ $178.31, marked $167.71, −5.94%). The July-6 "Hold / Accumulate" language is now formalized as a plain Hold on the table — the position stays, but Accenture is no longer a name Haymaker is telling readers to buy. Consistent with the same day's instruction to raise cash in expensive securities.
Accenture is the world's largest technology-consulting firm — the people companies hire to actually install and run the software they buy. Haymaker bought it in May as a supposed "AI victim" whose numbers said otherwise. This week it comes off the buy list onto the hold-or-trim list, rated simply Hold. In plain terms: keep what you own, stop adding. It's a small step down from the "hold and accumulate patiently" language of early July, and it fits the same day's blanket instruction to raise cash in richly valued names.
In short: Not owned; the closest comp to Reuters. At risk as clients revisit consulting budgets and use AI to need fewer consultants — "pricing power is gone." High-margin (~20% ROC) but multiple-pressure ahead.
29:12What about in the US like Accenture and Intuit, do these all fall into the same bucket? They've also been run over.
29:17Yeah. So those two are similar but a little bit different, and Accenture is probably the closest comparison to Reuters. If you were to
In short: Stance moves from "conditional starter" to Hold / Accumulate. The June-18 "prove-it" Q3 tilted the casualty-vs-beneficiary debate toward beneficiary: revenue $18.7B (+6% USD / +3% local), new bookings $19.3B (modestly below the prior $19.7B), operating margin +20bps to 17.0%, diluted EPS +9% to $3.80, raised FY adjusted EPS to $13.78-13.90 with FCF guided $10.8-11.5B. AI-partnership evidence is genuinely strong: named OpenAI's first-ever "AI Transformation Partner of the Year," now Anthropic's most-certified partner globally, AI-platform bookings targeted to more than double in FY26; ~$9B of acquisitions this fiscal year (up from $5B). ~$138, ~12-13× forward earnings vs a historical low-20s multiple, a ~13% FCF yield. What keeps it accumulate-not-conviction-buy: low-single-digit organic growth and slightly soft bookings — wants growth to stabilize and AI bookings to actually accelerate the total growth rate before getting aggressive.
Accenture is the world's largest consulting and IT-services firm — the people companies hire to actually build and install new technology. The bear case was that AI would gut its business model (why pay armies of consultants if AI does the work?). Haymaker had it as a "conditional starter" — buy a little, wait for the June quarter to prove the case either way.
The June quarter was the "prove it" test, and it leaned positive. Profits, margins and cash flow were all fine-to-good (earnings up 9%, a raised full-year forecast, and roughly $11 billion of free cash — a fat ~13% cash-flow yield at ~12-13× earnings, cheap versus its own history). And the AI evidence is genuinely strong: Accenture was named OpenAI's first "AI Transformation Partner of the Year," is Anthropic's most-certified partner in the world, and its AI-platform orders are set to more than double this year — meaning enterprises are paying Accenture to deploy AI, not bypassing it. The one blemish is that overall revenue is still only growing in the low single digits, with new orders slightly soft. So Haymaker upgrades its stance from conditional starter to Hold / Accumulate — keep buying, but patiently, until the top-line growth actually speeds up.
In short: Q3 revenue +6% to $18.7B ($50M miss), GAAP EPS $3.80 (+9%, $0.11 beat); new bookings $19.3B −2% — first Y/Y decline since Q3 FY25. Shares −18% (worst day on record), ~−50% YTD. Headwinds: an AI-displacement thesis showing up in bookings + a $100M Q3 rev / ~$400M sales hit as the Iran conflict slowed EMEA decisions. $4.2B cyber M&A (Dragos/runZero/NetRise); cut FY26 guide. Now ~6x EV/FCF (lowest ever), ~10% combined div+buyback yield. (Recap, not a stance call.)
Accenture is one of the world's biggest IT-consulting and outsourcing firms — companies hire it to build software, run their technology, and now to install AI. This quarter the numbers were fine (revenue up 6%, profit up 9%), but the figure that scared the market was "bookings" — the value of new contracts signed, which is the best leading indicator of future revenue. Bookings fell 2%, the first decline in over a year, and the stock dropped 18% in a day, its worst ever, leaving it down roughly 50% for the year.
Two things hit demand: the Iran conflict froze decision-making across Europe and the Middle East (clients delayed signing), and — the bigger fear — AI may be starting to eat Accenture's own business, since some of the grunt work it sells (coding, support, process work) is exactly what AI automates. The flip side the article highlights: after the crash, Accenture is historically cheap — about 6x enterprise value to free cash flow, the lowest ever, while paying out roughly 10% of its value each year in dividends and buybacks. So it's a tug-of-war between a deteriorating bookings trend and a valuation that's pricing in a lot of bad news. This is a recap of that debate, not a recommendation.
In short: "Quite disastrous" — the AI-kills-consulting fear made real. Revenue up a "paltry" 3%, bookings down 3% (contracts pushed to FY27); clients spend more on AI but cut everything else, so net net results stay weak. Three acquisitions announced in one day "looks like buying stuff to hide weakness." Stock −18% Friday, −50% YTD, −35% in Q2. "Ugly."
Accenture is one of the world's largest management-consulting firms (it began as Arthur Andersen Consulting and spun off in 2001, just before the Enron scandal sank its old parent). The big fear hanging over the whole consulting sector is that AI will let companies do for themselves much of what they used to pay consultants for — and Accenture's quarter did nothing to ease that fear.
Revenue grew a "paltry" 3%, and bookings (future work signed) actually fell 3%. Management's read: clients are pouring money into AI but cutting back on everything else, so the net effect is weak. Announcing three acquisitions in a single day looked to Eisman like "buying stuff to hide weakness." The stock fell 18% in a day and is down over 50% this year — his headline example of an AI victim, the opposite of a scarcity winner like Micron.
3:45And nine, some thoughts about Alan Greenspan. And 10, one mailbag. Let's get started. The US and Iran signed an MOU last Friday. This week, Vice President Vance led a team of negotiators to iron out the details. I'm sure the markets will trade every headline for weeks. Next up, Accenture reported last week and it was quite disastrous.
In short: Pick of the Week — the world's largest consulting firm (786k employees), down ~50% to a 52-week low (~$177) as a presumed AI victim, but the operating data is the opposite: record $22.1B Q2 bookings (1.2 book-to-bill, $43B H1), advanced-AI revenue $1.1B / AI bookings $2.2B in Q1 (guided to more than double), FY26 FCF raised to $10.8–11.5B. At ~14.7× fwd EPS / ~9× FCF / ~10% FCF yield / record 3.5% dividend (decade-low vs 25–35× in 2021–24); analyst PT ~$274–285 (~55–61% upside), Value Line 100 earnings-predictability score. Every dollar of hyperscaler AI capex needs a dollar of integration; the three-cycle macro all drives ACN demand. A 12–18-mo+ hold, "an investment, not a trade." Catalyst: Q3 earnings June 22.
Accenture is the world's biggest consulting and tech-services firm — when a giant company needs to overhaul its computer systems, move to the cloud, or now roll out AI across its operations, Accenture is who it hires (it has 786,000 employees). Its stock has been cut roughly in half, from $386 to about $177, because investors fear AI will do the work consultants do and wipe out demand. Haymaker argues that's a serious misreading. The boring, repetitive tasks (routine testing, basic IT support) may indeed get automated — but Accenture's high-value work, helping huge organizations actually install and govern AI, is in more demand than ever. The proof is in the numbers: bookings (new work signed) hit a record $22.1B in a single quarter, AI-specific revenue and bookings are surging, and cash generation is at record levels. You don't book record amounts of new business if your business is being automated away.
At the same time, the stock is now historically cheap: about 14.7× expected earnings and ~9× free cash flow — its lowest valuation in a decade (it traded at 25–35× as recently as 2021–24) — with a free-cash-flow "yield" around 10% and a dividend yield of 3.5%, the highest in its history (you get paid to wait). Wall Street analysts on average see it worth ~$274–285, roughly 55%+ above today. Haymaker also notes the bigger picture helps: companies reshoring factories, rethinking energy, and coping with a tougher financial environment all need exactly the complex transformation work Accenture sells, and "every dollar of AI infrastructure a hyperscaler deploys requires a dollar of transformation services to integrate it." The honest risk is margins — if AI lets Accenture do the same work with fewer people, profit per project could shrink — so this is framed as a patient 12-to-18-month-plus investment, not a quick trade.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.