| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROTH | 3 | $1,646.28 | $4,939 | 1.93% | $685.33 | $2,883 | +140.2% | — |
In short: A beneficiary: "agents don't route around leading edge lithography" — they consume inference and training capacity, which raises demand for advanced logic and memory. The moat is accumulated physical engineering that "a general-purpose model cannot synthesize." "ASML continues to be the apex predator. Nobody hunts it." Visa/Mastercard secure the transaction; ASML enables the computation.
ASML makes the only machines that can print the most advanced computer chips. Agents don't remove the need for chips — they use huge amounts of computing, which means more chips and more ASML machines. No AI can recreate decades of precision engineering through a better app, so he calls ASML "the apex predator" that agents can't touch.
36:51Next, we get to ASML. Agent growth increases demand for physical bottlenecks. This should be pretty basic, but agents don't route around leading edge lithography. There's just no going around ASML. If you want to do anything that requires a chip, you're going through ASML. Not only do they not route around ASML, but they rely on ASML.
In short: "Many of the stocks that are AI stocks like ASML, Nvidia, these type of stocks have gone down today" — the market's first-order reaction to the pacing debate. Reported, not argued; no change to his ASML view.
2:55It started to boil over over the weekend and now investors are genuinely becoming concerned that there's going to be a serious slowdown in the frontier of AI. Many of the stocks that are AI stocks like ASML, Nvidia, these type of stocks have gone down today. And we have other leaders, including one important one, Sam Alman of OpenAI, joining in with Daario to some degree, saying, "Yeah, we could slow down the frontier and be a little bit more cautious.
In short: Favourite #5 — "A global monopoly building the complex machines required to make advanced computer chips." "They're a monopoly as they're the only company on earth that knows how to build the most advanced version of these machines… As the demand for advanced chips grows, so will ASML's sales." Metrics: revenue +16.3%, EPS +19.1%, gross margin 51.7%, ROIC 24.7%. Chart: revenue 8,962.7m (2017) → 35,327.5m LTM, a 16.5% CAGR, with a near-flat 2024 (28,262.9m vs 27,558.5m). A monopoly on a cyclical, capex-driven end market — a tension the post does not address. No valuation.
ASML, a Dutch company, makes the enormous machines that print circuits onto chips. For the most advanced chips — the ones in phones and AI servers — it is the only supplier in the world, so every leading chipmaker has to buy from it.
The post's case is simple: more demand for advanced chips means more ASML machines sold, and sales have roughly quadrupled since 2017. What it does not discuss is that chipmakers buy these machines in waves, so orders can stall (2024 was nearly flat), and that export rules on selling to China are a political risk. No price or valuation is given.
In short: Subscriber view: "In this knife fight, you want to be the one selling the knives" — upstream semiconductor suppliers "benefit regardless of whether the winner is Nvidia, a hyperscaler, an AI lab, or some architecture we haven't seen yet." Eisman quotes it and calls the email "very interesting" but does not adopt the list.
13:22In this knife fight, you want to be the one selling the knives. Upstream semiconductor suppliers such as ASML, KLA, LAM Research, and Applied Materials, together with memory suppliers such as Micron and SK Hynix. They benefit regardless of whether the winner is Nvidia, a hyperscaler, an AI lab, or some architecture we haven't seen yet.
In short: $120k (+$87k). Risk is geopolitical (tighter US limits on DUV sales/servicing in China, ~14–20% of sales), not the moat; leading-edge capacity still tight (Samsung +15% foundry prices). 13% × 30× leaves a "very low expected return," so it's the only name he has trimmed (20%) — fair value "$1,300… maybe 14[00]" vs $1,800–2,000. Keeping "a foot in the door."
ASML makes the only machines that can print the most advanced chips, and demand is still strong. The main risk is political: tighter US limits on what it can sell and service in China, which is a meaningful slice of sales. His problem is price — he thinks fair value is roughly $1,300–1,400 a share versus $1,800–2,000 — so it is the one great company he has trimmed (by 20%), while keeping most of the position in case momentum lasts.
In short: Buy target $1,200 (holding six, $124k with $91k of gains). The affection is unqualified and the discipline is separate from it: "ASML is one of my favorite stocks ever. I really love this company. It's so cool what they're doing. But I have to set a buy-in target at $1,200." At 12.5% EPS growth and a 30 multiple that entry compounds at 15.2% — "the stock would essentially double over the next 5 years." Elsewhere he mentions trimming ASML "towards $2,000 per share" to fund the DoorDash entry.
ASML makes the machines that print the world's most advanced computer chips, and nobody else can build them. Carlson's affection is unreserved — "one of my favorite stocks ever. I really love this company. It's so cool what they're doing" — and it has been one of his biggest winners, $124,000 held with $91,000 of that being gains.
Which makes the sentence that follows the point of the whole episode: "But I have to set a buy-in target at $1,200." Loving a business does not exempt it from the entry-price rule. At $1,200, with earnings growing 12.5% and the stock eventually valued at 30 times earnings, the money roughly doubles over five years — a 15.2% annual return. Above that price, the same money is better spent elsewhere, and he has in fact been trimming ASML near $2,000 to fund other positions.
13:51ASML is one of my favorite stocks ever. I really love this company. It's so cool what they're doing. But I have to set a buy-in target at $1,200. If we look at how the numbers play out here, we can assume very moderate assumptions for ASML. The earnings per share growth rate of 12.5%. I'd put a PE multiple of 30 on it. When we look at that, at a $1,200 buy-in price, we get a 15.2% return.
In short: Carlson: sold ~20% near $1,900–2,000 earlier this year — "enthusiastically priced… overvalued on the short term" — to fund DoorDash and Uber, a deliberate small drop in portfolio quality for much better valuations.
In short: Core, held, not chased. Named in the AI-infrastructure cluster (TSM, NVDA, ASML, AMAT, MU) that with the mega-cap platforms and the two new IPOs makes up "nearly half of the top holdings listed" across the 20 funds — the lithography monopoly kept as core exposure while the quarter's incremental buying went further down the chain.
In short: Positive on the business, actively trimming the position: "As much as I love the qualities behind ASML, I believe the valuation is very stretched today, and so I've actually been trimming a little bit of my position, despite the fact it's been one of my best performers over the past 2 years." Dorsey did the same and Carlson calls it smart. The counterweight lesson: Dorsey's first trim came "just a tad too early" at $1,300 before the run to ~$2,000 — "when a stock has this much good sentiment behind it… you can be very slow to take gains." Kantesaria refuses to trim it at all, up ~62% YTD, which Carlson reads as keeping his one uncorrelated risk factor.
ASML makes the machines that print the world's most advanced computer chips, and nobody else can build them. Carlson still loves the business — but he's selling some of it, and says so plainly: the valuation is "very stretched today," so he's been trimming even though it's been one of his two best performers. Pat Dorsey trimmed too, which Carlson calls smart.
The more useful part is the tension he leaves unresolved. Dorsey's first trim came at about $1,300 a share — and the stock then ran to roughly $2,000. Carlson faced the same doubling and chose to let it ride, and generalises the lesson: "when a stock has this much good sentiment behind it, they travel up a lot further than you'd think. So, you can be very slow to take gains in stocks like this." So the discipline isn't "sell when expensive," it's "sell slowly into strength, and don't confuse an expensive price with a finished move."
Dev Kantesaria's refusal to trim it at all gets a different explanation. In a portfolio otherwise built entirely on interest-rate-sensitive financial-data businesses, ASML is the only holding whose fortunes move for unrelated reasons — the single piece of genuine diversification, and this year the only thing keeping the fund's returns off the floor. Keeping it is a risk decision, not a valuation one.
18:34As much as I love the qualities behind ASML, I believe the valuation is very stretched today, and so I've actually been trimming a little bit of my position, despite the fact it's been one of my best performers over the past 2 years. So, he has ASML as a big winner, and likewise, he's also reduced his position a little. That's smart.
In short: His benchmark for a genuinely unrepeatable technology, used to argue AV software is not one: "AVs are impressive technology. But it's no ASML machine. It's not something that no other company can ever feasibly do. We know how it works — they use lidar and they use cameras." Hence he expects AV capability to commoditize across multiple suppliers, which is precisely what favors the aggregator.
ASML shows up here not as a pick but as a yardstick. ASML makes the extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines that no other company on earth can build — the definition of a technology moat. Carlson uses it to size up self-driving technology and concludes it doesn't qualify: "AVs are impressive technology. But it's no ASML machine… we know how it works. They use lidar and they use cameras."
That matters for the Uber thesis. If several companies will eventually build competent self-driving stacks, then AV capability becomes commoditized supply — and when supply is commoditized, the business that aggregates the demand captures the economics. That's the same pattern as Netflix, Booking Holdings and the app stores, and it's the reason he expects Uber rather than any individual AV manufacturer to end up with the profits.
In short: #4 — the strongest monopoly claim on the list. "They are the only company in the world that can build Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines. This technology is critical to produce the most advanced chips found in smartphones, AI systems, and high-performance computers." Durability: "They hold an absolute global monopoly on advanced chipmaking; the complexity of their machinery is nearly impossible to copy; they sit at the center of the permanent global tech expansion." The unaddressed risk is the obvious one for a twenty-year hold: a single Dutch company at the centre of the most politically contested supply chain in the world.
ASML builds the machines that print the circuit patterns onto silicon wafers. For the most advanced chips this requires extreme ultraviolet light, and ASML is the only company on earth that can make a machine capable of it — each one costing hundreds of millions and taking years to build and install.
That is as close to a genuine monopoly as public markets contain: every advanced chip in every phone and AI system starts inside one of its machines. The risk the piece does not mention is the one that follows from the same fact. A single company controlling the chokepoint of the most strategically contested technology on earth is a political asset as much as a commercial one, and over twenty years that cuts both ways — export controls, forced technology transfer and state-funded attempts at replication are all live.
In short: The second graded call, and again no longer the dislocation: at $1,750 and "close to its all-time highs," "I don't talk as much about ASML anymore." A year ago at ~$740 he was making videos consoling investors through a −10% post-earnings day — "I don't think it changes anything with the company" — while buying it himself ($8,000 at $719, $5,000 at $750, $10,000 at $750). Up ~150% since; "a $124,000 position with $91,000 in the green."
ASML makes the machines that print the circuitry onto advanced computer chips. A year ago it fell 10% in a day after an earnings report, and Carlson made videos arguing the drop changed nothing about the business — while buying it himself in size ($8,000 at $719, then $5,000 and $10,000 at $750).
It is now $1,750, up roughly 150%, worth $124,000 to him with $91,000 of profit — and precisely because of that, he has stopped talking about it. A stock near its all-time high is no longer a dislocation; it is a position you hold, not one you're urging people into.
3:28This company has been on a roll. It's close to its all-time highs. And I don't talk as much about ASML anymore. But I was talking about this one a lot around a year ago when it traded for around $740 per share. I made videos trying to console investors after it sold off 10% on the day after earnings, saying that I don't think it changes anything with the company and that they will do just fine in the future.
In short: Dean, explaining why the portfolio owns no semis: China is "no longer just a producer of $1 widgets," already dominates EVs and drones, and is "going after ASML" as well as the memory makers. The ability to produce DRAM, CPUs and lithography machines far cheaper "definitely gives us pause regardless of how bullish the overall industry looks." A risk framing, not a call on ASML's stock.
54:48it's a lot harder to play. Especially given China. We've learned that quite the hard way. China is very competitive and they're no longer just a producer of $1 widgets. They're very technical. They already have a monopoly pretty much in EVs and drones and essentially they're going after ASML.
In short: The China-lithography sell-off was an overreaction — a state-backed Shanghai firm is targeting ~5 immersion DUV systems this year and 20 next, versus ASML's 131 shipped last year (<5%), with worse performance and Japanese components; BofA reiterated Buy, estimating only a ~2.4% revenue hit. ASML also raised 2026 revenue guidance a second time to €43-45B. But: "ASML didn't sell off enough for us to get too excited, although I was thinking about buying it as well."
ASML makes the machines that print the world's most advanced chips, and its stock fell on news that China has begun building a domestic copy. Singh's read is that the scare was overdone: China is targeting about five machines this year and twenty next, against ASML's 131 shipped last year — and they're slower, lower quality, and still rely on Japanese components. Bank of America estimates the whole substitution would cost ASML about 2.4% of sales.
He was tempted, but the discipline held: "ASML didn't sell off enough for us to get too excited." A monitor, not a buy.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: His semiconductor leg, held but explicitly capped: "while it's important to have a leg into the semiconductor category, I own ASML. I believe it's risky to have your portfolio concentrated into that category because a lot of those companies are more commodity-like and they're more scarcity-driven." The volume is "one-time scarcity-driven volume" — and the demand behind it comes from the big capex vendors he'd rather own.
Carlson still owns ASML — it's his deliberate "leg" into semiconductors, the machines that make advanced chips possible. But this episode is a caution about the whole category, not a pitch. His words: it's "risky to have your portfolio concentrated into that category because a lot of those companies are more commodity-like and they're more scarcity-driven."
Translated: a lot of the extraordinary sales in chips right now come from shortage, not from a permanently bigger business. When something is scarce, buyers pay up and order early; once supply catches up, both the price and the volume can fall back. And the customers creating that scarcity are the very four capex vendors he prefers to own directly. So the allocation logic is: hold some of the supplier, concentrate in the demand aggregator.
3:53I've also been arguing that while it's important to have a leg into the semiconductor category, I own ASML. I believe it's risky to have your portfolio concentrated into that category because a lot of those companies are more commodity-like and they're more scarcity-driven. A lot of the volume they're getting is one-time scarcity-driven volume and the companies supplying this volume and all of the demand for them are these big capex vendors.
In short: Named with TSMC as the equipment layer that "makes the stuff that makes chips" — one of the three pre-model layers Luria argues capture value regardless of whether the winning model is open or closed source.
11:39And supposedly this model is just as good as my model. So what am I going to do? You referred to AI as one business. It's not. Okay. We're talking about a whole value chain that's being created. There's the companies that make the stuff that makes chips, primarily ASML and TSMC, but a whole other slew of companies. There's the companies that make the chips, Nvidia, AMD, Micron, etc.
In short: The bottleneck that makes his supply call work: if you woke up wanting to build a fab, "I need to call up ASML. Yeah — get in line." Cited as evidence no significant memory supply arrives "in the next couple of years." Reference, not a stance.
52:16We'll keep doing research. We can report back to you. But it's if you woke up today said, "Hey, I'm going to phone, all the supply chain lamb researchers and so forth, say, I want equipment to build. I need to call up ASML." Yeah. Get in line. And so I think it's I think it's but I come back to my valuation discipline.
In short: Great numbers that the tape ignored — lifted its annual sales forecast a second time to 43-45B (vs 39B est), GM 55-57%, +30% NA EUV capacity — but the stock still sold off on AI fear. "The market's absolutely very, very skeptical of these names; it still doesn't believe it's a growth business."
ASML makes the machines that etch chips — the only company that makes the most advanced ones. It reported great numbers and raised its sales forecast for the year a second time, yet the stock still fell on general AI fear. Singh's takeaway is more about market psychology than the company: "the market is very skeptical of these names" and refuses to believe it's still a growth business. He's puzzled, but not stepping in.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: Sechan owns it: raised 4-year guidance by 15% (now expecting ~30% annual revenue growth "for years to come"), "incredible pricing power," and "virtually no way you can make a chip without" its advanced lithography/etching — "the ultimate bottleneck." A good report that still sold off ~2% (up 70% ytd, some profit-taking) — evidence of the "parabolic to chaotic" semi tape.
ASML (a Dutch company) makes the ultra-advanced machines that etch the tiny circuits onto computer chips — its lithography gear is essentially the only way to make a cutting-edge chip, which Rob Sechan calls "the ultimate bottleneck." He owns it. The news: ASML raised its four-year forecast by 15% (now expecting about 30% annual sales growth for years) and has "incredible pricing power" — yet the stock still fell about 2%. Sechan's read is that after a 70% run this year some investors just took profits; the report itself was good. It's a prime example of the day's theme: great numbers, but expectations were even higher.
In short: A $122k position, $90k in the green — "a massive winner in the portfolio along with Google." Still "fundamentally… great and the moat continues to be extraordinary," but he made two trims over the past month (~$1,900 and ~$1,750/share) at a 45 PE: "it's warranted to take some off the table when you see valuations rise this high this fast." Not making big bets on it this quarter; expects the semi-trade momentum to fade.
ASML has been one of Carlson's best holdings — a $122k position that's up about $90k. He still loves the business ("the moat continues to be extraordinary"), but he did something notable: he trimmed it twice in the past month, selling some shares at around $1,900 and $1,750. The reason is purely valuation — after a huge, fast run the stock trades at about 45× earnings, which is very high even for a great company, and ASML still has some cyclicality (its demand rises and falls with the chip cycle).
His discipline: "it's warranted to take some off the table when you see valuations rise this high this fast." He isn't bearish and isn't selling out — he's just moving some money from an expensive winner into cheaper quality names (Uber, Netflix, Meta) because he expects the red-hot semiconductor trade to cool.
19:23Along with TSM, these companies have raced upwards with all the semiconductor hype. It's currently $122,000 position, $90,000 in the green. So it's been a massive winner in the portfolio along with Google for the past year. But over the past month, I've made two trims of ASML. Both of them around one around $1,900 per share, the other around $1,750.
In short: Rossbach (January pick — his most successful): the lithography leader; management raised FY26 revenue guidance to €36–40B (from €34–39B); surging memory demand translates into capacity expansion, though the tools are complex and slow to ramp.
In short: Referenced — a chunk of SK Hynix's ~$28B raise is earmarked for ASML EUV (extreme-ultraviolet) lithography scanners, "the tools that leading-edge DRAM can't be made without." A disclosed author holding. (Recap, not a stance call.)
In short: His other held winner "that continues to go up any day the semiconductor trade goes up" — named alongside Google as what's working while he builds up the rest of the portfolio for when the rotation happens. Not a fresh buy here.
28:21In the meantime, I have a couple companies that have done well in this market. Google's one of them and ASML is another one that continues to go up any day the semiconductor trade goes up. But I'm building up the rest of my portfolio for when this trade happens. Now, as we jump into some news here, we have Tom Lee explaining why he believes this month will be particularly good in the market.
In short: "The Shining Star this year" — ~22–23% revenue and a remarkable ~33% organic EPS growth on the semiconductor/AI capex recovery. He trimmed it (price ran far faster than even this growth, plus more cyclicality baked in), but the moat is "crystal clear" and multifaceted (technological supremacy, logistics, customer relationships, ever-growing installed base): "if you can't see the moat today in ASML, there's no convincing you."
ASML makes the lithography machines that print the most advanced chips, and it's the standout grower this year — revenue ~22–23% and an exceptional ~33% earnings growth on the AI/semiconductor capex wave. Carlson trimmed it because the share price ran up even faster than that and the business carries more cyclicality than his other names, but he's adamant the moat is "crystal clear": layered technological supremacy no rival can replicate, plus logistics, deep customer relationships and an ever-growing installed base. "If you can't see the moat today in ASML, there's no convincing you."
In short: His best performer (+177%, +$103k) — but he did his first-ever ASML sale, a 10% trim (~$16k) to fund Uber/DoorDash, because the stock raced to a near-50× forward PE / 1.3% FCF yield, faster than fundamentals. "I am not bearish on ASML" — still ~$150k held, "an incredible company."
ASML makes the ultra-advanced machines (EUV lithography) that every cutting-edge chip factory needs — a near-monopoly and Carlson's best-performing holding, up 177% (about $103,000 in gains). For the first time ever, he sold a little: a 10% trim, roughly $16,000, which he moved into Uber and DoorDash. The reason isn't that ASML got worse — he says it's actually stronger and more dominant than a year ago — it's that the stock price ran up much faster than the business, to a nosebleed valuation (close to 50 times forward earnings, a free-cash-flow yield of just 1.3%).
He's emphatic that this is not a bearish call: "I am not bearish on ASML," and he still holds about $150,000 of it. Trimming 10% of a winner that has become expensive, to fund cheaper opportunities that have been left behind, is the discipline on display here — taking some chips off the table, not folding the hand.
6:28I bought the position size that I like, which is that nice $40 to $60,000 range. ASML from there took off and continued to compound, and I hadn't sold a share. In fact, last Friday was the first time I've ever sold a share of ASML. And I just trimmed the position by 10%. So my position size was around $165,000, and I sold $16,000 and reallocated that $16,000 with $8,000 apiece to DoorDash and Uber.
In short: The only tech company in Europe's top-5 (~$750B), used in his "stay away from Europe" case — Europe has too little tech (18% of the index vs ~38–50% in the US).
17:16In Europe, tech is only 18% of the euro stocks index. Now for viewers who are watching, I am putting on the screen two tables that show the largest five companies in Europe and in the US. The first thing to notice is that no European company has a market cap above 1 trillion. ASML at 750 billion is getting there, but only ASML of the five is a tech company.
In short: Ranked #2. "A True Monopoly: ASML is the only company on earth that can build EUV machines." Framed as the AI toll road that is indifferent to the winner — "it doesn't matter which tech giant wins the race… they all need chipmakers, and those chipmakers buy their machines only from ASML." The moat is the supply chain: "hundreds of special partners… a rival would need decades and hundreds of billions of dollars." Sells machines costing hundreds of millions each to TSMC, Intel and Samsung, plus service and upgrade revenue.
ASML makes the machines that print the circuit patterns onto silicon. The most advanced type, called EUV, uses extremely short-wavelength light, and ASML is the only company on earth that can build one. Every leading-edge chip — the ones in modern phones, data centres and AI systems — is made on its machines, and the machines cost hundreds of millions each. It also earns steadily from servicing and upgrading the ones already installed.
That makes it a way to own the artificial-intelligence build-out without having to pick which technology company wins it: whoever wins still needs advanced chips, and the chipmakers all buy from the same single supplier. Copying it is not really a question of money — the machine depends on hundreds of specialist partners assembled over decades — which is why the article calls it a true monopoly rather than merely a strong business.
In short: Grouped with TSMC and the Korean chipmakers as the disciplined capacity constrainers preventing the AI bubble from bursting too soon.
38:55whether it's CEOs of Micron I think the most conservative people in this ecosystem are effectively the Taiwanese like the TSMC's of the world. and the Korean chipmakers and ASML the Dutch lithographer the lithography company manufacturer and they're the ones constraining capacity in the market.
In short: His biggest winner (~$80k gain; ~$683 → ~$1,800), but only ~3% off all-time highs — a great company he'll keep holding, just not adding to here. Hold.
ASML is the Dutch company that makes the ultra-advanced machines used to print the world's most cutting-edge chips — and it's his single biggest winner, up about $80,000 in gains as the stock ran from roughly $683 to about $1,800 in a year.
He stresses this is real, fundamentals-driven success, not just hype: demand is "insane," it's selling more machines and getting far more orders — including a new wave from memory makers, not just chip makers. But at only ~3% below its all-time high, he's content to keep holding rather than pile in more here.
10:41After Google, we get into ASML. My biggest winner over the trailing year. I'm around $80,000 in gains in this one. So, it's really done well. It is 3.2% off of its highs. So, it's at the very tippy top of its trading range. We're up to $1,800 when in the past 52 weeks it's traded as low as $683. Just consider that range from $600 under $700 up to almost $2,000.
In short: Critical IP — "you can't make a chip without their lithography."
ASML is the Dutch company that makes the lithography machines used to print the circuitry on advanced chips. Sacerdote uses it as the classic example of "critical IP" — proprietary technology no one can work around: "you can't make a chip without their lithography."
That monopoly-like grip on an essential step makes it one of the strongest moats in the whole AI supply chain, and a levered way to play rising chip demand.
33:58So they got a Walmart size scale advantage in 5 years versus 40 years for Walmart. So you can have network effects scale you can become industry standard. You can be a platform that people build on top of. You can have critical intellectual property, which was what Qualcomm had. You couldn't make a phone without paying them, or ASML has critical intellectual property.
In short: The anti-commodity contrast: "one of a kind." There's no list of the top-10 EUV machines — if there were, all 10 would be ASML's. Used to concede the bears' point that AI models, unlike ASML, are many and interchangeable.
ASML is the Dutch company that makes the ultra-advanced machines (EUV lithography) used to print the world's most cutting-edge computer chips — and it's essentially the only company on earth that can. He brings it up as the opposite of a commodity: there's no "top 10 list" of these machines, because if there were, all ten would be ASML's. He uses it to fairly concede the bears' point — AI models, unlike ASML's machines, are many and interchangeable — before arguing that being interchangeable still doesn't mean no profits.
10:58For example, one month it might be OpenAI's having the best model, the next month it might be Grock, the next month it might be Google's Gemini, and so on and so forth. The point here is that there's a lot of models to choose from, and I can see why investors are concerned about this. When we look at companies like ASML, they're really one of a kind.
In short: Owns lithography — the patterning step that defines how small a feature you can print, "the most critical step" for advanced chips: ~90% market share, almost 100% in the most advanced (EUV) tooling. China can't buy ASML — a key reason its chips aren't competitive.
ASML (Netherlands) makes lithography machines — the tools that project a chip's circuit pattern onto silicon. That patterning step decides how small a feature you can print, which is what makes a chip "advanced," so it's the most critical step in the whole process. ASML has about 90% of the lithography market and essentially 100% of the most advanced (EUV) machines: a true monopoly on the choke point of progress.
It's also a geopolitical weapon: China is barred from buying ASML's best machines, which Rasgon says is a big part of why Chinese chips "are not competitive right now" — China has the electric power to run AI data centers, but not the chips to fill them.
45:46So, ASML is does that almost they have 90% market share. They got almost 100% in the in the most advanced tooling. Companies like KAC, um CLA do that process control that monitor monitor the wafer. um they do in inspection. They look for problems and defects on the wafers. They monitor it while it's running and and there's other companies that do that.
In short: His chosen phase-1 holding — a $140k position, +$78k, holds every share. An EUV "outright monopoly" and a durable seller: big machines used for decades with service contracts, "a little bit more up on the hierarchy" than memory. Up 39% YTD / 113% on the year.
ASML is the Dutch firm with a near-total monopoly on the EUV machines that print the world's most advanced computer chips. In Carlson's AI roadmap this is "phase 1" — the scarcity phase, where whoever sells the scarce, must-have ingredient has huge pricing power. ASML is his chosen way to play it: a $140,000 position already up $78,000, and he holds every share.
The reason he picked ASML over other hot sellers is durability. Memory chips are a one-time sale; ASML sells building-sized machines that customers use for decades and pay it to service the whole time, so its earnings are far less likely to collapse when the boom cools. He thinks you should own a little phase-1 exposure (otherwise you miss the whole rally), but only through a durable seller like this one rather than the cyclical names.
7:29And that is why I invest in ASML is because I believe it's more durable seller. My position today in ASML looks like this. It's a $140,000 position with $78,000 in the green. It's already a fairly large position, but I continue to hold every share. And the reason why is because I believe even though you may have questions about the scarcity phase and you may have questions about these companies, I think you do need to own some of the sellers into scarcity.
In short: Seventh-best YTD performer on the watchlist at +23.9% (5-yr CAGR +20.0%, 10-yr +31.1%). Performance table only; the valuation view remains the 21 April one — €745 at 25x against a €1,245 price.
In short: A monopoly at the wrong price. 90% share of EUV lithography and "literally zero real competitors"; "one of their machines weighs as much as two blue whales" and China "is nowhere close"; a 20-30 year service annuity after every sale; and AI capex flowing back to it ("every dollar spent on AI eventually flows back to ASML"). Valuation is the whole objection: 36.8x forward against a 32.0x ten-year average, and "personally, I'd consider owning ASML at 25x earnings" — €745 against a €1,245 price.
ASML makes the machines that make advanced computer chips, and it is the only company in the world that can. Its market share is about 90%, its machines weigh as much as two blue whales, and China has spent years failing to copy one. Every leading chipmaker, from TSMC to Intel, buys from it.
Two features make it more than a one-off equipment sale. First, once a chip factory is built around ASML machines, switching would cost billions, so nobody does. Second, ASML then collects service fees on each machine for twenty to thirty years — a long annuity attached to every sale. And because it supplies everyone, it makes money regardless of which AI company ends up winning.
Again the answer is not now. The shares cost about 37 times next year's profits against a ten-year average of 32. The stated entry level is 25 times, or roughly €745 against a market price of €1,245.
In short: Fifth-best watchlist performer at +23.0% year to date, with the second-best ten-year record in either table at 30.1%. Not rated Buy this month.
In short: #4 most-picked; +33.5%. Descriptive: "ASML dominates the market for EUV lithography machines. In fact, it's a monopoly. As a monopoly, you can regularly raise your prices because no one makes the same products as you," plus the AI tailwind — "The market clearly noticed this in 2025." No valuation and no stance; the same monopoly framing recurs in Arka Bhattacharjee's 20-year list.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.