| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROTH | 6 | $344.60 | $2,068 | 0.81% | $435.00 | $-542 | -20.8% | — |
In short: Sold, and "far more concerned about Intuit shareholders today than I was when I sold." TurboTax "is just a big form to fill out"; a persistent financial agent that already knows your situation makes filing "ambient" — continuous, not seasonal — so it is hard "to justify paying separately" $100–200. Credit Karma is being compressed too; Intuit is fighting back, but it's "not overnight."
TurboTax is basically a long, friendly form that walks you through your taxes, and people pay $100–200 for it because mistakes are scary. An AI agent that already knows your finances and can read your documents could do most of that quietly all year long, making a separate tax product harder to justify. Credit Karma faces the same squeeze. He sold Intuit and is now much more concerned for its shareholders than when he sold.
24:29Now, in it is starting to fight this. Of course, they're not going to just stand still and do nothing. All of these companies have their own plan. They're trying to implement this technology as well. When I sold into it, I was concerned about Turboax. But after really understanding what this technology is capable of, I'm far more concerned about in it IT shareholders today than I was when I sold I believe a lot of the value that in it offers with Turboax is being compressed and a lot of the tools even like Credit Karma are being compressed
In short: The consumer-end software that feels "more dicey" — AI can crawl your finances and walk you through taxes; TurboTax and Credit Karma look exposed.
Asked which software companies AI weakens, he singles out the consumer ones people don't enjoy using anyway. AI can now read your financial documents and walk you through your taxes, which makes TurboTax and Credit Karma feel more exposed than business software that is deeply built into how companies run.
In short: Sold; "has challenges, but it's got such a lock on so many customers. I think it'll do great."
In short: The counter-example that keeps the software rally honest. "Intuit fell 3.2% after guiding fiscal year '27 EPS significantly below consensus, as the risk of AI disruption in tax seems to be a bigger issue." The quarter itself was fine — Q4 revenue $4.4B vs $4.27B (+14%), adjusted EPS $4.03 vs $3.58, Credit Karma +16%, dividend raised 15%, $5.5B of buybacks — but FY27 adjusted EPS was guided to $22.88-23.12 against a $27.32 estimate, a roughly $5 shortfall. The report's own "Potential Reductions" list generalises it: de-risk point-solution software providers lacking embedded workflows, platform scale or clear distribution alliances, naming tax preparation as the exposed category. The contrast with Salesforce in the same 48 hours is the whole thesis — a system of record with an agent alliance re-rated, a point solution with a consumer funnel de-rated.
Intuit makes TurboTax and QuickBooks. It reported a good quarter — revenue and profits both ahead, a dividend increase, large buybacks — and the shares fell, because it guided next year's earnings to roughly $23 a share against a $27 expectation. A $5 shortfall on a $27 number is not a rounding error; it is a change in what management thinks the business can earn.
The reason matters more than the number. Tax preparation is a self-contained task with a clear right answer, performed once a year by a consumer following prompts. That is precisely the shape of work a language model does well. Singh's phrasing: "the risk of AI disruption in tax seems to be a bigger issue."
Set it beside Salesforce in the same 48 hours and you have the whole framework. Salesforce holds the definitive record of a company's customers, so an AI agent has to go through Salesforce to do anything useful — and it re-rated upward on an alliance that makes exactly that happen. Intuit sells a task, and the task can be done elsewhere.
The report's list of positions to reduce generalises it: de-risk point-solution software providers that lack embedded workflows, platform scale or a clear distribution alliance. Intuit is the named example.
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: DIY price reset — a good quarter and a materially lower bar. Q4 revenue +14% Y/Y to $4.35B ($130M beat) with adjusted EPS of $4.03 ($0.44 beat); Global Business Solutions +14% and Consumer +14% (primarily Credit Karma). "Yet shares fell sharply as FY27 guidance called for revenue growth of just 9%–10%, down from 14% in FY26." The reset is TurboTax: "management acknowledged that price has become the #1 reason DIY customers leave, particularly among filers earning around $50,000. Intuit now plans to accept lower revenue per customer to win those users back," potentially including more free offerings — so TurboTax revenue is expected to grow just 2%–3% in FY27. The same acquisition push is reaching QuickBooks: QuickBooks Free launched with 20,000+ customers already using it or converting, "the idea is to acquire businesses cheaply upfront and monetize them later through payments, payroll, lending, and other services." Mailchimp remains the weak spot, flat to −1% in FY27. Guidance: FY27 revenue $23.3–$23.5B, below consensus, GBS 13%–14%, Credit Karma 11%–13% — with the caveat that the huge FY27 EPS shortfall "is less concerning than it looks because Intuit will begin including stock-based compensation in its non-GAAP results, making the new EPS guidance incomparable with prior estimates." Bottom Line: "FY27 now becomes a test of whether this is a deliberate reset before reacceleration or evidence that competition is structurally weakening Intuit's pricing power." A disclosed author holding.
Intuit owns TurboTax (do-it-yourself tax filing), QuickBooks (small-business accounting), Credit Karma and Mailchimp. The quarter itself was strong — revenue up 14%, earnings well ahead — and the stock fell sharply anyway, because of what management said about next year.
Intuit made a striking admission: price is now the number one reason people stop using TurboTax, especially filers earning around $50,000. Rather than defend the price, it is choosing to lower it — accepting less revenue per customer, possibly giving more away free — to win those users back. The consequence is stated plainly: TurboTax revenue will grow just 2–3% next year, and group growth drops from 14% to 9–10%. It is doing the same thing at QuickBooks, launching a free tier that already has 20,000 users, on the theory that you acquire a small business cheaply and then earn from it through payments, payroll and lending later.
Whether this is good or bad depends entirely on a question the numbers cannot yet answer, and the newsletter frames it exactly right: is this a deliberate reset — sacrifice a year of price to rebuild the customer base, then grow again — or is it an admission that free competitors have permanently taken away Intuit's ability to charge what it used to? A voluntary price cut and a forced one look identical in a guidance table.
One technical warning attached: the apparent collapse in next year's earnings guidance is partly an artefact. Intuit is changing its definition of adjusted earnings to include stock-based compensation — a real cost most software companies exclude — so the new number simply is not comparable to the old analyst estimates. Notably, this redefinition makes Intuit look worse, which is the more credible direction for such a change. Mailchimp, meanwhile, remains a problem: flat to slightly down. The author owns it. Analysis, not a recommendation.
In short: Same software basket (with Adobe/ServiceNow); a past holding he sold and still expects to do well.
In short: Sechan's final trade, and a direct rebuttal of the software-apocalypse trade: "Intuit. Not all software is created equal. ServiceNow was yesterday, Intuit today — both up 26% for the month." The pairing is the point: the two names he has final-traded on consecutive days are both software, both up a quarter in a month, in a group the market has been treating as structurally impaired.
Intuit makes TurboTax and QuickBooks. Rob Sechan's final trade comes with a one-line thesis aimed at a market that has spent months assuming AI will destroy software companies: "not all software is created equal."
His evidence is that the two software names he has picked on consecutive days — ServiceNow yesterday, Intuit today — are both up 26% over the past month. In a group the market has been treating as structurally impaired, the higher-quality businesses are quietly being repriced upward.
The transferable idea is to distinguish between software that is genuinely at risk of being replaced by an AI model and software that owns a workflow, a dataset or a regulatory position that a model cannot simply reproduce.
In short: Ives: "you could say the same thing for names like Intuit" — same miscalculation as Adobe. The threat as he frames it: the models "could actually do your taxes," so the question is "what does it ultimately take out of its market share." Same 1995-typewriter framing.
Intuit sells TurboTax and QuickBooks — tax preparation and small-business accounting. The threat Ives describes is direct: general-purpose AI models are getting good enough that "could it actually do your taxes?" stops being a rhetorical question, and the real issue is "what does it ultimately take out of its market share."
Same diagnosis as Adobe: a strong installed base whose owner misjudged the speed of the change. Note that neither guest quantifies the damage — this is a directional call on business-model risk, not a forecast.
39:31market share and I just think it comes down to like the one narrative that me and Gil just keep talking about is companies that sit on a treadmill at 2.5 speed. It's no different than like 1995 like a typewriter company. I remember like put out press release being like this internet thing is we're sticking to our gun like we're going to continue be like a typewriter we're pro and then all of a sudden a year later they were bankrupt and gone.
In short: Not owned but "the most interesting" beaten-up software name — 80% gross margins, near-zero capital needs (QuickBooks/Mailchimp/tax). At ~10–11x earnings "completely mispriced" if profitability holds; "a fair price" if AI disrupts. Time will tell.
Intuit makes small-business and tax software — QuickBooks, Mailchimp, TurboTax. Teich calls it the most interesting of the beaten-down software names because it's extraordinarily profitable (80% gross margins) and needs almost no capital. The catch is AI: for years these companies raised prices every year, and now that pricing power is fading. At roughly 10–11x earnings, he says the stock is "completely mispriced" (too cheap) if the profitability holds — but only "fair" if AI seriously disrupts the business. He doesn't own it; he's waiting to see how that plays out.
29:50Again, it's a high margin, high return on capital business. I think return on capital is in the 20% range. Intuit I think is the most interesting
29:58because it is so profitable. There are so few businesses that have 80% gross margins that need almost virtually no capital investment in the business.
In short: The worst of the software group — down 39% in Q2 on AI-disruption fear.
13:18In consulting, Gartner and Accenture were down 18% and 35% respectively. In communication services, the sector was up 7% for the quarter, but much of that performance was just from Google being up 20%. There were quite a few losers. Netflix seems to have completely lost its mojo, down 25%. I suppose Netflix's growth story no longer seems that powerful.
In short: The main superinvestor sell. "Fundsmith and AKO Capital sold all their Intuit shares. A third investor, Dev Kantesaria of Valley Forge, sold about 15%." The case against is two-part and both parts must hold: the multiple — "they traded at 50x-70x earnings" — and the erosion of the mechanism that justified it, because "AI is getting better very fast… the company might win new customers more slowly than before. Or it might lose some of its power to charge high prices." TurboTax and QuickBooks are named as the products at risk.
Intuit sells the software small businesses and households use to keep their books and file their taxes — QuickBooks and TurboTax. That has been a very good business for a long time, because once a company's accounts live inside a program, moving them is painful, and that pain let Intuit raise prices every year without losing customers.
Three well-known quality investors reduced or eliminated their holdings in the same quarter. The reasoning has two parts and both matter. First, the shares had been priced at fifty to seventy times profits — a price that only makes sense if the pricing power lasts indefinitely. Second, artificial intelligence is improving fast at exactly the tasks this software performs, so it is now plausible that Intuit either wins new customers more slowly or has to stop raising prices. Neither risk on its own would be fatal; combined with that valuation, it was enough for them to leave.
In short: Same "less predictable / AI-threatened" SaaS bucket as Salesforce, Adobe and Autodesk — he avoids it.
19:50We have Salesforce, Adobe, Intuit, Autodesk and generic SaaS and AI wrappers. Now, with Salesforce, Adobe, Intuit, and Autodesk, again, I don't know for sure if these companies will do poorly, and that's not what I'm saying here. They could have a big resurgence. They could rerate higher, but I just believe that they're far less predictable than the companies above.
In short: Trimmed by quality funds last quarter. Reported without analysis.
In short: Software-ROS example ("a sore point — I bought puts during the Liberation Day recovery in that 'kiss from below' and got caned"); a name he's watched roll over.
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