| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 302 | $68.86 | $20,796 | 0.85% | $49.52 | $5,841 | +39.1% | — |
In short: Referenced only — Agnico's partner in the San Nicolás copper project ("we're building San Nicolás with Teck"), whose copper stays inside Agnico rather than going to the new critical-minerals company; Teck's CEO also sat on the summit's critical-minerals panel. No view on the stock.
46:39How serious are you about growing that? Is it primarily copper? How does it fit into Agnico Eagle, the gold producer? Well, we like copper, but copper and gold sometimes go together. So, Agnico, I mean, we're building San Nicolás with Teck. So, the copper side of it as a critical metal will probably stay within Agnico Eagle.
In short: "Kind of fairly priced today." ~6% FCF yield on 2026 expected cash flow, ~0.5% dividend plus buybacks; three scenarios at $5/$6/$7 copper, 10% discount rate: bear −40%, base fair, bull meaningful upside. Net cash, early copper capex now paying off — but "more cautious with copper overall" into a recession; watching the Anglo Teck merger rather than buying.
Teck is a Canadian miner of copper and zinc. For years it spent heavily building new copper mines (notably Quebrada Blanca in Chile) while bigger rivals were paying out cash from iron ore. That spending ate its free cash flow — the cash left after paying for the mines — but the new production is now arriving just as copper prices are high, so profits jumped and the company now holds more cash than debt.
Lukacs values the shares by projecting cash flows at three copper prices ($5, $6 and $7 a pound) and discounting them at 10% a year. The middle case says today's price is about fair; a bad case would mean about 40% downside; a good case gives real upside. With roughly a 6% free-cash-flow yield it isn't cheap, and because copper miners fall hard in recessions — which he expects, as rising borrowing and energy costs push interest rates up — he is watching rather than buying.
13:27So, I think this is kind of fairly priced today. You have a 6% free cash flow yield based on 2026 expected cash flow, dividend of less than a percent, let's call it half a percent, and some buybacks. Now, the valuation because of all of this looks roughly fairly priced for the current copper environment. So, the upside requires stronger copper economics and execution or execution on the merger.
In short: Asked which copper names have lagged the metal's run: "among the large names that haven't moved as much as they should have, Teck probably stands out… The valuation gap between Teck and its peers relative to its pipeline, I think is impressive." The leverage is in the tier-2 names, but those are already up 12–20% in two weeks.
Copper equities have run hard with the metal near record highs, and the question was which ones haven't. Among the big producers, Rick's answer is Teck: "the valuation gap between Teck and its peers relative to its pipeline, I think is impressive." Pipeline means the projects it can build next — the part of a miner's value that the market ignores when it's focused on this quarter's output.
He notes his usual preference is the biggest, lowest-cost producers, and that the raw leverage to copper sits in the smaller "tier 2" names — but those are already up 12–20% in two weeks. That is the honest timing caveat: the easy part of this move has happened, and he still likes the sector "five years out."
39:20A lot of copper equities have jumped significantly just this week with the metal near all-time highs. Are there any names you follow that you think have lagged that move or that still look relatively undervalued for the multi-year case?" I would say that among the large names that haven't moved as much as they should have, Teck probably stands out. Normally I favor the biggest and lowest cost producers.
In short: Glencore's repeated merger target during his tenure — same commodities (copper, zinc, coal), overlapping locations and JVs, so "the most amount of value would be created by putting the two companies together." Rebuffed amid Canadian-government "hollowing out" fears; Glencore ultimately acquired only the coal assets.
Teck Resources is a large Canadian diversified miner (copper, zinc, coal). It appears only in a "war story": during Pandoff's time at Glencore, Glencore tried several times to merge with Teck because the two overlapped heavily in commodities, locations and joint ventures — but the deal was blocked amid Canadian worries about "hollowing out" the domestic mining sector, and Glencore ended up buying just Teck's coal assets. No investment view is offered on Teck itself.
35:39the unique stories I have with Glencore which was very well covered in the media was when Glencore made an approach a number of times to join with Teck Resources.
35:49And this was one of a great part of my career to see how we could put together these two companies. Ultimately
In short: Referenced as half of the newly formed "Anglo Tech" copper giant (Anglo American + Teck, Vancouver) — named as a potential buyer of NexGen's deposit.
44:56I think it could be sold to Cameco. I think it could also be sold to Rio Tinto, who although they're a foreign buyer, operate a very large phosphate deposit in Saskatchewan. I think too that it could be sold to the newly formed Anglo Tech, the copper giant that has been formed by the merger of Anglo American and Teck Corp in Vancouver.
In short: Cited as the benchmark, not a stance: Teck's Highland Valley is the largest molybdenum mine in Canada — Surge's Berg would be the 2nd-largest, the comp that frames the moly thesis.
In short: Merging with Anglo American to create that Canadian champion (a potential NexGen acquirer/builder).
30:30We can build this thing. We can secure enough offtake contracts that we can build this thing. And politically now you don't just have to sell it to Kamako. You could sell it to the new Anglo. The merger of Anglo American and tech forms a Canadian mining champion that is easily big enough to buy and build this mine. Or I think it would be politically appropriate to sell the mine to Riotinto who are already in the uranium business and already have an 8 billion dollar podash mine in Saskatchewan.
In short: Benchmark, not a stance: Berg in operation would be "the largest moly byproduct producer by nearly an order of magnitude vs operations like Teck's Highland Valley" — the comp that frames Berg's moly draw. (VP Wheeler is ex-Teck Quebrada Blanca.)
In short: Passing merger reference: a successful Teck–Anglo tie-up would push Rio further down the mined-copper rankings (Rio already only ~#9), part of why Paulo reads Rio as "lost" on copper growth.
In short: Not owned — reference. Prefers Glencore over Teck simply because Glencore is bigger in coal. Notes Glencore's near-hostile take of Teck's Elk Valley (EVR) met-coal business, and the interesting preferred/call-option structure Teck first proposed. Based near Smead's Seattle roots.
59:17You know they took out EVR from tech that was a kind of highly controversial almost hostile in a way deal. Elk Valley correct Elk Valley resources. Um when they were going to originally spin that out and kind of put this preferred payment stream on it that looked like a call option that tech was going to price. That was interesting to us.
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