Founder & CIO of Bison Interests — a value-oriented oil & gas equity investor; energy-supply, geopolitics-of-oil and contrarian E&P analysis, with a running synthesis and per-appearance breakdowns.
Unnamed Canadian-headquartered drilling-rig company (his disclosed Venezuela exposure — never named in the interview)
His only disclosed Venezuela exposure — an unnamed, publicly traded Canadian-headquartered drilling-rig company run by a well-known billionaire, the only operator actually running rigs in Venezuela (two, possibly three by year-end). Held as a win-either-way position: he doubts the advertised 50-rig migration, but if it happens the North American rig market tightens sharply.
Structural shortage call: ~10% reserve replacement ("burning the furniture") against a 7–10% depletion rate and 40+ years of ≥1%/yr demand growth, while a $60s–70s forward curve sits below the $70–90 marginal replacement barrel — so the barrel needed to stay flat never gets drilled and the shortage clears through demand destruction. Exit signal is consensus bullishness: the curve flipping from backwardation into contango.
Benchmark only — the small-cap energy producer ETF (spoken as "PSE"), down close to 60% since his May 2015 launch. Cited as evidence that in a hollowed-out sector the passive basket is precisely what you don't want to own.
Speculative aside, not a recommendation — floated as the kind of non-US major that might still accept Venezuelan expropriation risk now that "the US is out of that business."
No stock view — named as most of what XLE actually is, and on Venezuela reparations: its CEO asked whether expropriated US oil companies get their money back and "got smacked by Trump." Young treats unpaid reparations as a precondition for any real Venezuelan investment.
Negative on refining margins as a borrowed, geopolitical dislocation rather than a real capacity shortage — struck Russian refineries, China's halt on product exports and deferred North American turnarounds. Expects normalization after the US election (oil to $110 while diesel falls ~$200 → ~$150). Expressed as a small put hedge, never a short.
In one line: A contrarian small-cap oil & gas equity investor whose bull case rests on cost-curve arithmetic, not headlines — a ~10% reserve-replacement rate against a 7–10% depletion rate and 40+ years of relentless demand growth, with a forward curve far below the $70–90 marginal barrel needed just to hold production flat — while a second, separable layer of political price suppression (SPR releases, jawboning, non-sticking "deals") holds the headline price below what the physical market implies and, he argues, invites the very escalation that ends it.
The marginal barrel, not the average barrel. The whole call in one distinction: the first well drilled to offset decline may break even at $20–40, but the last barrel needed simply to stay flat costs "70 or 80 or $90" — and the forward curve prices in the $60s–70s even with spot at $91. So the incremental barrel is a loss-maker and doesn't get drilled. Reserve replacement running at "something like 10%" is that arithmetic already showing up in behaviour: "essentially burning the furniture."(2026-SEP-09)
Depletion and demand leave no escape route. A 7–10% global depletion rate means an enormous volume must be replaced every year; demand has risen at least 1% a year for 40+ years and has fallen only a handful of times in 160 years of commercial use. Even if demand did roll over, higher prices would still be needed to avoid a shortage — and shortages "get reconciled through demand destruction, which is much much higher prices."
Duration, not the average, is the capex trigger. Oil averaging $75+ for 90 non-consecutive days is not a price signal: "that's not what producers need to go make multi-million or multi-hundred million dollar investment decisions." Volatility is itself a cause of the underinvestment, alongside allocator de-vestment (endowments, foundations, family offices leaving the space entirely).
The exit signal is consensus, expressed as curve shape. Unusually explicit: he sells into optimism, not into a price target — "what I'm looking for to exit and return capital is consensus bullishness… reflected in the forward curve going into contango instead of backwardation." Backwardation persisting is confirmation the thesis is unfinished.
Political suppression, and its game-theoretic backfire. SPR releases, repeated "the Strait is open" declarations and revised/withheld EIA data lose potency with repetition ("the general effectiveness of these things diminish"). Worse, publicising a low oil price as the metric of victory hands an adversary a cheap way to win — and ballistic-missile strikes on tankers have begun coinciding with victory announcements, leaving a live super-spike tail even if the US withdraws. Floors are treated the same way: the SPR salt-dome floor is "people's psychological need for there to be a floor," not an engineering constraint.
The refining spike is geopolitical, not real. Diesel cracks near $100 come from struck Russian refineries (Russia now a fuel importer), China halting product exports after the US attacked Iran, and North American refiners deferring turnarounds — all reversible on a political calendar. He expects partial resolution after the US election (crude to $110 while diesel falls ~$200 → ~$150) and holds a small put hedge on refiners; he never shorts, after an early short squeeze.
Frontier assets are underwritten on property rights, not barrels. Venezuela could technically add billions of barrels (multilateral/fishbone wells, SAGD), but the Communist Party remains in charge and the assets have been expropriated twice — "the real open question here isn't if it will get stolen," and committing client money there is a fiduciary problem. Precondition for re-underwriting: reparations paid and enforceable private property.
Position so you win either way. His only disclosed Venezuela exposure is an unnamed publicly traded Canadian drilling-rig company with two rigs in-country — held while he publicly doubts the advertised 50-rig migration, because if it happens the North American rig market tightens and he profits. "I find it's helpful to be positioned where possible to make money either way."
Supplier capitulation as the entry signal. ~150 firms focused on oil and gas public equities 15 years ago, "probably fewer than five" now, and none he can find in small caps — the same de-vestment that starves the physical market. He launched in May 2015 because the incumbents were closing, and grades himself publicly against XOP / PSCE / XLE.
Where he invests: small-cap publicly traded oil & gas equities (founder & CIO of Bison Interests). He names almost nothing by symbol on air — exposure is described by category, so the stock index above stays deliberately thin.
The product
Grounded only in what Young says in the archived appearances — chiefly the unusually explicit self-description opening 2026-SEP-09 (VRIC Media) and its closing segment.
What it is: two separate things under one name. Bison Interests (bisoninterests.com) is his day job — an investment fund launched in May 2015 focused on small-cap publicly traded oil and gas equities, a niche he says has gone from ~150 competing firms fifteen years ago to "probably fewer than five," with none he can find still focused on small caps. Bison Insights (bisoninsights.info) is a paid newsletter he started "a little more than a year ago" — stock ideas he is himself invested in, plus macro analysis and supporting data. He leads with disclaimers rather than a pitch: "this isn't a solicitation," "it shouldn't be relied on," "past performance may not be indicative."
Offering
What it is
How he runs it
Seen in the index
Bison Interests (the fund)
A small-cap oil & gas public-equity fund, launched May 2015 — an 11-year record he volunteers unprompted so listeners can grade his macro views.
Find undervalued names that also have "growth catalysts or their wells would be better," then tilt the oil-vs-gas and upstream-vs-midstream exposure to express the macro view. Graded against the passive alternatives, not against peers.
Not disclosed name by name on air — the index carries only the categories and benchmarks he mentions.
Bison Insights (the newsletter)
A paywalled publication started ~mid-2025: "a number of different stock ideas of things that I've been investing in that I find interesting as well as macro analysis and data to support various specific macro views."
Written frequently; the macro work is the same material he presents publicly (the reserve-replacement, depletion and forward-curve arithmetic), with the data behind it.
Its stock ideas are behind the paywall and are not archived here.
Public appearances
Free interviews (CNBC International, VRIC Media) where the macro framework is given in full but individual holdings generally are not.
Positions are described by category — small-cap producers, "a drilling rig company that's actually a Canadian headquartered one," "puts on refiners" — deliberately without names.
The archived pages here.
Skin in the game is the stated standard. His reason for volunteering fund performance at all: "the actual skin in the game where we're putting real money to work in equities that reflect our macro views and then the performance of those views I think actually matters a lot, and I feel like that part of the discourse is missing."
The scoreboard is public and passive-relative. Since the May 2015 launch: small-cap energy ETF down close to 60%, large-cap energy ETF up ~20%, his fund up "200 something%." The comparison is the argument for active selection inside a hollowed-out sector.
Framework free, positions paid. The reusable method — marginal-barrel cost curve, duration-not-average, curve shape as the exit bell — is given away in interviews; the specific names sit behind Bison Insights.
He disclaims more than the officials he criticises. The running joke with a point: the White House can post "65 billion barrels" with no asterisk while "I run a fund. I have to go disclaim it 10 different ways."
Appearances
One dated page per appearance — each has its stock/name table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.